Reconstruction of long-term tobacco consumption trends in Australia and their relationship to lung cancer mortality

Adair, Tim; Hoy, Damian; Dettrick, Zoe; Lopez, Alan D

doi:10.1007/s10552-011-9781-0

Cited by 34 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 22 publications

(33 reference statements)

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“…A decrease in mortality in male lung cancer has been observed in many developed countries [4,22,23]. Lung cancer mortality is strongly influenced by tobacco consumption, peaking 20-30 years after the peak in tobacco consumption [23,24].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Lung Cancer Epidemiology in Korea

Shin

Kim

et al. 2017

Cancer Res Treat

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PurposeThe current study was undertaken to examine the trends in the lung cancer incidence, mortality, and survival after a diagnosis in Korea.Materials and MethodsLung cancer incidence data according to the histologic type and mortality data were obtained from the Korea Central Cancer Registry and the Statistics Korea, respectively. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated, and the Joinpoint model and age-period-cohort analyses were used to describe the trends in the rates. The 5-year relative survival rates of lung cancer were also calculated.ResultsAlthough the number of new lung cancer cases increased between 1999 and 2012, the age-standardized incidence rate decreased by 0.9% per year in men, whereas the incidence in women increased by 1.7% per year over the same time. Until 2010, the most common histologic type in men was squamous cell carcinoma, then adenocarcinoma prevailed thereafter. Since 1999, the most frequent histological type in women was adenocarcinoma. The lung cancer mortality started to decrease in 2002, with a more apparent decline for the younger age groups in both men and women. Overall, the 5-year relative survival rates have improved significantly from 11.2% for men and 14.7% for women among patients diagnosed between 1993 and 1997 to 19.3% for men and 28.2% for women among patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2012, respectively. An improvement in survival rate was observed for all major histology groups.ConclusionThe epidemiology of lung cancer in Korea has changed over a short time span, with decreasing mortality and improving survival rates. Further study is warranted to determine the cause of these changes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lung cancer mortality is strongly influenced by tobacco consumption, peaking 20-30 years after the peak in tobacco consumption [23,24]. Price and non-price tobacco control policies were introduced as early as 1986; these policies restricted advertising and included health warnings on cigarette packages in Korea [18].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lung Cancer Epidemiology in Korea

Shin

Kim

et al. 2017

Cancer Res Treat

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“…It is worth noting that the prevalence of smoking has undergone profound changes over the past 80 years. Smoking increased rapidly in Australia after World War II, with smoking levels peaking in males in the 1950s (72%) and in females in the 1970s (31%) 25,26 . Then followed steady declines in smoking prevalence so that by 2001, 24% of the Australian adult population were current smokers, 26% were ex‐smokers and 49% were never smokers 20 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cancers in Australia in 2010 attributable to tobacco smoke

Pandeya

Wilson

Bain

et al. 2015

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health

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ObjectivesTo estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) and numbers of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to tobacco smoking, both personal and by a partner.MethodsWe used a modified Peto-Lopez approach to calculate the difference between the number of lung cancer cases observed and the number expected assuming the entire population developed lung cancer at the same rate as never smokers. For cancers other than lung, we applied the standard PAF formula using relative risks from a large cohort and derived notional smoking prevalence. To estimate the PAF for partners' smoking, we used the standard formula incorporating the proportion of non-smoking Australians living with an ever-smoking partner and relative risks associated with partner smoking.ResultsAn estimated 15,525 (13%) cancers in Australia in 2010 were attributable to tobacco smoke, including 8,324 (81%) lung, 1,973 (59%) oral cavity and pharynx, 855 (60%) oesophagus and 951 (6%) colorectal cancers. Of these, 136 lung cancers in non-smokers were attributable to partner tobacco smoke.ConclusionsMore than one in eight cancers in Australia is attributable to tobacco smoking and would be avoided if nobody smoked.ImplicationsStrategies to reduce the prevalence of smoking remain a high priority for cancer control.

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“…Our results for the recent generation (aged <55 years), a reflection of more recent changes in tobacco smoking and a good indicator of future lung cancer incidence [13], showed no apparent sign of decline in lung cancer incidence in recent years. This leads us to believe that the time lag between tobacco smoking and subsequent lung cancer diagnosis may be longer for women (25-40 years) [28]. Possible explanations for this may include that the attribution of tobacco smoking to lung cancer is lower for women than for men (65% vs 90%) [29], so that factors other than smoking may contribute to the etiology of lung cancer in women [30], or that the rate of decline in smoking prevalence has been slower for women [31].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%