Reduced death rates from cyclones in Bangladesh: what more needs to be done?

Haque, Ubydul; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kolivras, Korine N.; Overgaard, Hans J.; Das, Bivash; Yamamoto, Taro

doi:10.2471/blt.11.088302

Cited by 155 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The reasons for non-evacuation identified in the present study are in line with previously acknowledged reasons for non-evacuation [4,[7][8][9]14,[36][37][38][39][72][73][74]. Additionally, the present study complements earlier research by highlighting the importance of the technical difficulties of TC forecasting at BMD, and the key role that the contents of cyclone warning messages play for residents' evacuation behavior.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…People do not receive, understand or believe the warning, in the latter case partly because the warning messages are seen as unreliable [4,6,7,35]. 2.…”

Section: Response Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3. The shelters are far from the residents' homes, do not have enough capacity, or are derelict due to lack of maintenance [4,7,38]. 4.…”

Section: Response Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To ensure the safety of residents in the coastal areas, the Bangladesh government is investing considerable effort into developing a suitable approach to manage cyclone emergencies. As a result, residents' response to evacuation orders has improved considerably during the last decades [4][5][6]. Although residents' current evacuation response rate is still not satisfactory, further improvements could be difficult to achieve without resolving technical issues associated with early warnings as well as infrastructural problems (improved cyclone shelters, road communication, and housing) [4,[7][8][9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The current cyclone early warning system in Bangladesh: Providers' and receivers' views

Roy

Sarkar

Åberg

et al. 2015

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

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Bangladesh has experienced several catastrophic Tropical Cyclones (TCs) during the last decades. Despite the efforts of disaster management organizations, as well as the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), there were lapses in the residents' evacuation behavior. To examine the processes of TC forecasting and warning at BMD and to understand the reasons for residents' reluctance to evacuate after a cyclone warning, we conducted an individual in-depth interview among the meteorologists at BMD, as well as a questionnaire survey among the residents living in the coastal areas. The results reveal that the forecasts produced by BMD are not reliable for longer than 12-hour. Therefore, longer-term warnings have to be based on gross estimates of TC intensity and motion, which renders the disseminated warning messages unreliable. Our results indicate that residents in the coastal areas studied, do not follow the evacuation orders due to mistrust of the warning messageswhich can deter from early evacuation; and insufficient number of shelters and poor transportation possibilities-which discourages late evacuation. Suggestions made by the residents highlight the necessity of improved warning messages in the future. These findings indicate the need for improved forecasting, and more reliable and more informative warning messages for ensuring a timely evacuation response from residents.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…People do not receive, understand or believe the warning, in the latter case partly because the warning messages are seen as unreliable [4,6,7,35]. 2.…”

Section: Response Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3. The shelters are far from the residents' homes, do not have enough capacity, or are derelict due to lack of maintenance [4,7,38]. 4.…”

Section: Response Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The current cyclone early warning system in Bangladesh: Providers' and receivers' views

Roy

Sarkar

Åberg

et al. 2015

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Bangladesh is especially vulnerable to cyclones because of its location at the triangular-shaped head of the Bay of Bengal, the low-lying nature of its coastal area, its high population density and the dearth of significant coastal flood defences (Haque et al, 2012). It is rated as one of the world's most vulnerable countries to tropical cyclones (UNDP, 2004).…”

Section: Bangladeshmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing resilience to coastal flooding from severe storms in the USA: international lessons

Lumbroso

Suckall

Nicholls

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Recent events in the USA have highlighted a lack of resilience in the coastal population to coastal flooding, especially amongst disadvantaged and isolated communities. Some low-income countries, such as Cuba and Bangladesh, have made significant progress towards transformed societies that are more resilient to the impacts of cyclones and coastal flooding. To understand how this has come about, a systematic review of the peer-reviewed and grey literature related to resilience of communities to coastal flooding was undertaken in both countries. In both Cuba and Bangladesh the trust between national and local authorities, community leaders and civil society is high. As a consequence evacuation warnings are generally followed and communities are well prepared. As a result over the past 25 years in Bangladesh the number of deaths directly related to cyclones and coastal flooding has decreased, despite an increase of almost 50 % in the number of people exposed to these hazards. In Cuba, over the course of eight hurricanes between 2003 and 2011, the normalized number of deaths related to cyclones and coastal floods was an order of magnitude less than in the USA. In low-income countries, warning systems and effective shelter/evacuation systems, combined with high levels of disaster risk-reduction education and social cohesion, coupled with trust between government authorities and vulnerable communities can help to increase resilience to coastal hazards and tropical cyclones. In the USA, transferable lessons include improving communication and the awareness of the risk posed by coastal surges, mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into the education system and building trusted community networks to help isolated and disadvantaged communities, and improve community resilience.

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Tropical Cyclone Impacts

Collins

Paxton²

2021

Extreme Events and Climate Change

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In 1992, the nations of earth agreed to "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" according to the prescriptions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (United Nations, 1992). The meaning of "dangerous" was not specifically defined, but it was made clear that action should be taken so as "to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner." Since 1992, the world's nations have continued developing the UNFCCC, and more recently they noted "the importance of averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events . . ." (United Nations, 2015, p. 26). In doing so, the countries recognized that "adverse effects of climate change" will impose "loss and damage," but they remained silent on the conditions under which such adverse effects, loss, and damage might be considered "dangerous." Such conditions might be reached, for instance, once a certain threshold of damage is achieved or if the rate of increase of loss becomes too high. The nature of those conditions might be different for the viability of the insurance industry, the stability of an economy, the reliability of a food supply, or the steadiness of a political system. Hence, whatever might ultimately be designated as dangerous, it will need to be informed by assessment of impacts around the world and across natural, managed, and human systems. This assessment not only needs to note the global and cross-system averages but also the existence of any localized but transformative impacts, such as might occur around an ice-free Arctic Ocean, as well as disparities in impacts, for instance between wealthy and poor populations. In this chapter we will refer to such an assessment as a synthesis.This chapter is concerned with possibilities and challenges of syntheses that might inform the UNFCCC

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Reduced death rates from cyclones in Bangladesh: what more needs to be done?

Cited by 155 publications

References 31 publications

The current cyclone early warning system in Bangladesh: Providers' and receivers' views

The current cyclone early warning system in Bangladesh: Providers' and receivers' views

Enhancing resilience to coastal flooding from severe storms in the USA: international lessons

Tropical Cyclone Impacts

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