Reelection and Legislative Power: Surprising Results from <scp>B</scp>razil

Cunow, Saul; Ames, Barry; Desposato, Scott; Rennó, Lúcio

doi:10.1111/j.1939-9162.2012.00061.x

Cited by 11 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…With respect to the first point, we stress the importance of understanding legislators' alternatives. Even when a legislative seat is not particularly valuable, re‐election rates might be relatively high if legislators have little chance of obtaining a better office, as is the case in Brazil (Cunow et al ; Pereira and Rennó ). Indeed, our results indicate that much like their Brazilian counterparts, Argentine legislators only seek re‐election when they cannot afford a better alternative.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3 That is, we are interested in political behavior in a setting characterized by nonstatic ambition (Schlesinger 1966;Squire 1988): Given the chance, legislators prefer to "jump" to an executive position rather than continuing in the legislature. This is common in several Latin American countries, notably Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay (Ames 2001;Chasquetti and Micozzi 2014;Cunow et al 2012;Jones et al 2002;Micozzi 2014aMicozzi , 2014bPereira and Renn o 2013;Power 2000;Samuels 2003). 4 To be sure, nonstatic ambition does not mean that legislative positions are without value.…”

Section: Assumptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Effect of the Electoral Calendar on Politicians' Selection into Legislative Cohorts and Legislative Behavior in Argentina, 1983–2007

Lucardi

Micozzi

2016

Legislative Studies Qtrly

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How do electoral opportunities affect politicians' career strategies? Do politicians behave strategically in response to the opportunities provided by the electoral calendar? We argue that in a legislature that combines nonstatic ambition with a staggered electoral calendar, different kinds of politicians will have dissimilar preferences towards running in concurrent or midterm elections. More specifically, politicians with no previous executive experience should strategically run in midterm legislative elections in order to increase their visibility among voters, while more experienced politicians should opt for concurrent elections. We support these claims with data from the Argentine Chamber of Deputies between 1983 and 2007.How do electoral opportunities affect politicians' career strategies? Do politicians behave strategically in response to the opportunities provided by the electoral calendar? In this article, we explore how a scattered electoral calendar affects politicians' career choices in a setting in which legislators show little interest in re-election. Employing a simple decision-theoretic model, we show that the combination of (1) politicians with little interest in pursuing a legislative career-nonstatic ambitionand (2) staggered membership renewal (SMR)-the fact that legislators belonging to the same body are elected at different points in time (Goetz et al. 2014)-can induce a self-selection process among ambitious politicians who differ in their underlying quality. Specifically, politicians with previous executive experience have strong incentives to run for legislative office in concurrent elections, while their less experienced peers are better off by self-selecting into midterm elections. The electoral calendar should

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Assumptionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of the Electoral Calendar on Politicians' Selection into Legislative Cohorts and Legislative Behavior in Argentina, 1983–2007

Lucardi

Micozzi

2016

Legislative Studies Qtrly

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“…In fact, the Constitution of 1988 and the Rules of the Chamber (Regimento Interno) clearly give the executive sector more legislative and budgetary power than Congress. Cunow et al (2012) have shown that pork-barrel politics was fundamental to assure that the executive branch maintained most of its powers in the 1988 Constitution, accrued during the military dictatorship in Brazil. Using data from the most recent constitutional convention in Brazil, they show that legislators with greater prospects for long careers were actually less likely to support any strengthening of the legislative sector.…”

Section: Conclusion: Implications For Legislative Politics and Professionalizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In fact, werather contra-intuitively -argue that static ambition (i.e., running for reelection) may trump incentives for further professionalization and empowering of the legislative branch if it is mostly defined as a second-best option for political survival. Using data from the Constitutional Convention that approved the new Brazilian Constitution in 1988, Cunow et al (2012) have demonstrated that legislators with greater prospects of long careers in Congress were actually less likely to support the strengthening of the legislative branch. Our results confirm these findings in the post-constitutional setting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“Should I Stay or Should I Go?” Explaining Political Ambition by Electoral Success in Brazil

Pereira

Rennó

2013

Journal of Politics in Latin America

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Why run for reelection when the logic and incentives of the political system leave no doubt that running for other offices is a better option? This paper focuses on the factors that influence both the choice of career and the electoral success of those who run for reelection and those who attempt to obtain other offices, using Brazil as a case study, a typically fragmented, multiparty environment with a strong executive. We argue that legislators run for reelection because it is the safest bet for them. The probability of winning is higher for those who attempt reelection than for those running for any other office. Because static ambition is conditioned by election results and not by the intrinsic desire to develop a career in the legislative branch, career paths do not necessarily lead to improvements in legislative professionalization and institutionalization. This finding contradicts theories that relate career paths to legislative institutionalization.

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“…Cunow et al (2012) discuss how the the choice made by the members of the Brazilian constitutional assembly in 1988 were driven by their electoral objectives.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Office Incumbency Advantage: Political Careers in Brazil

Magalhaes¹,

Hirvonen²

2021

Anais Do Simpósio Interdisciplinar Sobre O Sistema Político Brasileiro E XI Jornada De Pesquisa E Extensão Da Câmara Dos Deputa

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Incumbency may have effects on a political career that go beyond increasing the probability of reelection. In particular, incumbency may affect the probability of winning different political offices. So far, the literature has not looked at these multi-office incumbency effects. In contexts where politicians move frequently to other offices, ignoring multi-office advantages may generate biased estimates of the true effect of holding a political office on the success of one's career. We define Multi-Office Incumbency Advantage and study it using a novel data set that tracks all Brazilian politicians, from local councillor to federal legislator, from 1994 to 2010. Furthermore, we use our results to evaluate two standing hypothesis regarding Brazilian politics. The first is that there is an incumbency disadvantage in Brazil. The second is the hypothesis * A previous version of this paper circulated under the title 'Incumbency Effects in Brazilian Mayoral Elections: A Regression Discontinuity Design'.

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Reelection and Legislative Power: Surprising Results from Brazil

Cited by 11 publications

References 30 publications

The Effect of the Electoral Calendar on Politicians' Selection into Legislative Cohorts and Legislative Behavior in Argentina, 1983–2007

The Effect of the Electoral Calendar on Politicians' Selection into Legislative Cohorts and Legislative Behavior in Argentina, 1983–2007

“Should I Stay or Should I Go?” Explaining Political Ambition by Electoral Success in Brazil

Multi-Office Incumbency Advantage: Political Careers in Brazil

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