Purpose
Absent gold standard diagnoses, we estimate age-specific false-positive and false-negative prediction rates of HPV-, cytology- and histology-based tests for significant cervical lesions (SCL) in U.S. women with AGC-NOS Pap smear diagnoses.
Methods
Modified Latent Class Model (LCM) analyses, with prevalence of SCL modeled as a function of age, were applied to GOG-0171 study data (n=122). The accuracies of several HPV-based tests, including Hybrid Capture II high-risk HPV (HC2 H-HPV); carbonic anhydrase IX (CA-IX) and invasive histological diagnosis were compared. 1-PPV and 1-NPV were written as functions of sensitivity, specificity and prevalence to obtain age-specific false-positive and false-negative rates.
Results
The histology-based test was nearly perfect (sensitivity=1.00, CI=0.98-1.00; specificity=0.99, CI=0.96-1.00). Otherwise, HC2 H-HPV performed best (sensitivity=1.00, CI=1.00-1.00; specificity=0.87, CI=0.79-0.94). The false-positive detection rates (1-PPV) for HC2 H-HPV were high (>17%) at each age, while those of the histological diagnoses were low (<5% at ages≤60 and <17% overall ages). False negative prediction rates (1-NPV) for HC2 H-HPV were < 0.11% at each age and were uniformly lower than those of other tests, including the histology-based test (<0.25%). CA-IX together with HC2 H-HPV did not improve performance.
Conclusions
Women with negative HC2 H-HPV can safely forego invasive treatment (i.e., cone or LEEP biopsy, hysterectomy) in favor of observational follow-up. Additional biomarkers must be found for use in combination with HC2 H-HPV to reduce false-positive rates. This novel application of a modified Latent Class Model (LCM) exemplifies methods for potential use in future cancer screening studies when gold standard diagnoses are not available.