2021
DOI: 10.1017/s0022278x21000240
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Regime cycles and political change in African autocracies

Abstract: This article applies a regime cycle framework to understand patterns of change and continuity in African competitive autocracies. We observe that regime change in African autocracies is rarely the result of actions carried out by rebels, opposition leaders or popular masses substantially altering the structure of power. Instead, they are more frequently carried out by senior regime cadres, resulting in controlled reshuffles of power. We argue that such regime shifts are best explained through a cyclical logic … Show more

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Cited by 8 publications
(9 citation statements)
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“…But many scholars have countered that it is not so much a declining interest in taking power by force, but the shrewd posture of incumbents that stops would-be usurpers from doing so (Quinlivan 1999; Levitsky & Way 2010). Because the greatest threat to autocrats still emanates from (former) co-conspirators/comrades within their ranks (Carboni & Raleigh 2021), rulers have developed ingenious ways of safeguarding their regimes. Such tactics include the involvement of African militaries in peacekeeping, embedded in internationally sanctioned discourses of ‘security assistance as development’ (Fisher & Wilén 2022).…”
Section: Manifest Destiny: Saf and The Consolidation Of The Sudanese ...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…But many scholars have countered that it is not so much a declining interest in taking power by force, but the shrewd posture of incumbents that stops would-be usurpers from doing so (Quinlivan 1999; Levitsky & Way 2010). Because the greatest threat to autocrats still emanates from (former) co-conspirators/comrades within their ranks (Carboni & Raleigh 2021), rulers have developed ingenious ways of safeguarding their regimes. Such tactics include the involvement of African militaries in peacekeeping, embedded in internationally sanctioned discourses of ‘security assistance as development’ (Fisher & Wilén 2022).…”
Section: Manifest Destiny: Saf and The Consolidation Of The Sudanese ...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Further, rather than building from scratch the institutions that it would need to ensure its continued sustenance as the supremely powerful body exercising authority over its territory, the state has chosen to rely on the existing tribal structures, which is a gross indication that the state faces a paucity of societal support. Also, driven by important institutions such as the court, electoral institutions and security agencies to perpetrate electoral fraud (Carboni and Raleigh 2021;Kavasoglu 2021). Autocratisation has also been driven by electoral conflicts.…”
Section: Rise Of Autocracy In Africa: the Case Of The Sahelmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Consequently, the executive is an important tool for building one's coalition of elite supporters. Though many democratic institutions were abolished or severely weakened in the post-independence era, the sharing of executive power remained an important tactic for integrating varying interests and creating an elite consensus in a heterogeneous environment (Arriola 2009; Carboni and Raleigh 2021). To political entrepreneurs, these positions are extremely attractive.…”
Section: Institutions and Powermentioning
confidence: 99%
“…From the perspective of the ruler, intra-elite relationships are perceived as crucially important in the construction of stable political bargains. Incorporating potential rivals is key for maintaining political stability and control (Carboni and Raleigh 2021). Similarly, political phenomena such as protests, political party formation and intra-party defections are portrayed as part of a negotiation process in which political elites demonstrate to the leader the necessity of their inclusion and try to elevate their position within the political hierarchy (Andrews and Honig 2019).…”
Section: Personal Relations and Politics In Africamentioning
confidence: 99%