Regime Insecurity and International Cooperation: Explaining China's Compromises in Territorial Disputes

Abstract

Since the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait crisis, scholars and policymakers have become increasingly concerned about China's territorial ambitions. Yet China has also used peaceful means to manage conficts, settling seventeen of its twenty-three territorial disputes, often with substantial compromises. This article develops a counterintuitive argument about the effects of domestic confict on foreign policy to explain China's behavior. Contrary to the diversionary war hypothesis, this argument posits that state leaders are more likely to compromise in territorial disputes when confronting internal threats to regime security, including rebellions and legitimacy crises. Regime insecurity best explains China's pattern of compromise and delay in its territorial disputes. China's leaders have compromised when faced with internal threats to regime security, including the revolt in Tibet, the instability following the Great Leap Forward, the legitimacy crisis after the Tiananmen upheaval, and separatist violence in Xinjiang.

China’s Approach in Territorial Disputes Settlement

“…Comprehensive studies of China's behaviour have shown that concerns over regime security are the most important motivator for compromise and that alliances or open rivalries made little difference in Beijing's stance on territorial disputes (Fravel, 2005). Additionally, concerning the South China Sea we find that increased Chinese moderation seems to come as a response to increased US involvement in Asia.…”

Waiting for Hard Balancing?

“…Despite the tension, these two countries finally settled the dispute. 65 As suggested by Fravel's research, it is evident that compared with this period, during the period when China has been gradually expanding its economic power, from the 1990s onwards, China seems to be less belligerent and showing a more assertive stance in dealing with the territorial dispute in the South China Sea. 70 China's recent assertiveness was triggered by the rise of nationalism both in the policy makers' circle as well as among the Chinese public in general.…”

Reactionary Consumer Ethnocentrism in Urban China

“…Consumers have also boycotted imports from bilateral trade partners due to other territorial disputes (Fravel, 2005 Chinese consumers also display consumer ethnocentric tendencies in the wake of natural disasters. In 2008, a 7.9-magnitude earthquake hit Wenchuan, killing approximately 87,150 people and making 4.8 million homeless (BBC, 2013).…”