Regional Climate Change Effects on the Viticulture in Portugal

Wunderlich, Rainer Ferdinand; Lin, Yu‐Pin; Ansari, Andrianto

doi:10.3390/environments10010005

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 111 publications

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“…More elevated temperatures during véraison can increase grape sugar accumulation, reduce grape acidity, and accelerate the development and maturity of the vine fruit [8,24,71,72] and other negative impacts that can lead to lower production [8,73,74] or grape quality [75,76]. In addition, favorable areas for growing grapevines in Baja California could be reduced under climate change scenarios, particularly at the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5 [1,77], as it has been projected for other viticulture regions, e.g., [78], including southern California [77].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change in Baja California Winegrape Yield

Hernandez Garcia,

Garza-Lagler,

Cavazos

et al. 2024

Climate

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We analyzed climate change scenarios and their possible impacts on winegrape yield in Baja California, the leading wine producer in Mexico. Linear regression models were used to predict the current yield based on climate and economic variables. Using future projections of the climate variables from two regional climate models (RegCM and RCA4), we evaluated the possible changes in yield for the Near Future (NF: 2021−2040) and Intermediate Future (IF: 2041−2060) periods under low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. One regression model includes maximum and minimum temperatures (Tx and Tn) of the winegrape growing season and accumulated winter precipitation (Pre), and the other model also includes the real minimum wage and winegrape price to evaluate the operating cost paid by producers. The results show that the linear regression model with the climatic and economic variables explains 28% of the winegrape yield, and Tx and Tn had the greatest influence. The climate change scenarios show that during the winegrape growing season, these variables could increase more than 1 °C in the NF and more than 2 °C in the IF under the RCP8.5 scenario. These latter temperature changes could reduce the yield between 18% and 35% relative to the reference observed climate dataset (Livneh). However, winegrape yield is sensitive to economic factors, as the yield reduction increases at least 3% in all cases. Thus, adaptation strategies need to be implemented in the viticulture sector to reduce future impacts.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change in Baja California Winegrape Yield

Hernandez Garcia,

Garza-Lagler,

Cavazos

et al. 2024

Climate

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Assessing changes in intra- and inter-annual precipitation variability using advanced statistical inference techniques

Moreira,

Augusto

2024

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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Aiming to find statistically significant changes on the usual monthly weather conditions in Alentejo, Portugal, in the past 40 years, time series of precipitation from a grid of locations in Alentejo were studied using an unconventional approach. The time series were divided into 4 decades and disposed in contingency tables with two factors, Year and Month. Then, log-linear models were fitted to those tables. The model deviances for Year and Month represent the weight of each factor in explaning precipitation varibility and Year:Month deviance is an estimate of the lack of independence between both factors, representing changes in intra-annual precipitation variability. The set of all the models deviances, per decade and location, were analysed using ANOVA techniques, first to compare the four decades, then to perform a crossed comparison between decades and between four pre-defined zones. Results indicate significant differences between the oldest and recent decades in terms of intra-annual precipitation variability, which could be interpreted as a trend towards softening the differences in precipitation between the wet months of the year. Furthermore, two homogeneous sub-regions could be defined in Alentejo, a large interior region and a smaller one close to the Atlantic Ocean.

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The Spatiotemporal Evolution of the Growing Degree Days Agroclimatic Index for Viticulture over the Northern Mediterranean Basin

Charalampopoulos,

Polychroni,

Droulia

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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The agricultural sector faces significant challenges worldwide due to climate change. The pressure exerted by altered thermal conditions drives the zonal shift for various cultivations. This study aims to analyze and present the spatiotemporal evolution of the growing degree days (GDD) index in the northern Mediterranean Basin (NMB). More specifically, this research presents the multiyear analysis of the GDD index, which is focused on a high-value vine cultivation derived from the E-OBS dataset. The investigated time period spans from 1969 to 2018, and the performed analysis indicates a broad shift/expansion in areas with GDDs exceeding 2000 heat units. This is present in traditional winemaker countries such as France and Italy. Still, it is also evident that there is a high positive change in countries such as Serbia, Bulgaria, and other Balkans countries. The findings may be helpful in the strategic planning of the agricultural sector in these countries or on a vinery scale.

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Regional Climate Change Effects on the Viticulture in Portugal

Cited by 3 publications

References 111 publications

Impacts of Climate Change in Baja California Winegrape Yield

Impacts of Climate Change in Baja California Winegrape Yield

Assessing changes in intra- and inter-annual precipitation variability using advanced statistical inference techniques

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of the Growing Degree Days Agroclimatic Index for Viticulture over the Northern Mediterranean Basin

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