Regional Development Scenario Evaluation through Land Use Modelling and Opportunity Mapping

Shahumyan, Harutyun; Williams, Brendan; Petrov, Laura; Foley, Walter

doi:10.3390/land3031180

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 38 publications

(48 reference statements)

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“…With the scenario modeling and land-use suitability approach, we developed a method to compare the potential performance of spatial plans with past urbanization trends. Unlike the case studies for single urban areas mentioned in the introduction [25][26][27][28][29], our model can be applied for a whole country including its urban and rural areas. Our results show that if new construction zones are located in the areas modeled as most suitable, the potential consumption of prime cropland will be much lower under the comprehensive plans than a continuation of the observed trend.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The land-use scenarios applied in this study are freely available and based on open data which simplifies their application and comprehensibility for use in evidence-based decision-making in planning practice [17,20]. Using land-use scenarios has the particular advantage that the consequences of potential planning decisions can be visualized and the efficacy of planning instruments can be evaluated [26]. In this study, we emphasized the potential loss of dedicated prime cropland due to future urban development according to the revised Swiss spatial planning act.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the recent past, a number of studies in land change science have developed sophisticated algorithms, e.g., cellular automata or artificial neural networks, to model land-use change and scenarios that can support planners in the preparation of spatial plans [21][22][23][24]. Urban development scenarios in particular have often been developed, e.g., for the Greater Dublin Region [25,26], for the Seoul metropolitan area [27], for the Beijing urban area [28], and for case studies in Mozambique [29].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How Effective Is Spatial Planning for Cropland Protection? An Assessment Based on Land-Use Scenarios

Tobias

Price

2020

Land

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Spatial planning plays an important role in cropland protection, but its effectiveness is often questioned in the face of ongoing urban and infrastructure growth. Moreover, methods to assess the effectiveness of spatial planning are lacking. In Switzerland, the revision of the national spatial planning act in 2014 was a new starting point for stricter prescriptions on urban development. We assessed whether the new regulations would better protect dedicated prime cropland from conversion to urban areas using land-use suitability models and land-use scenarios. The findings show that with the planning according to the revised planning act, the potential consumption of prime cropland for new urban areas is six times smaller than that occurring through extrapolation of the observed trend in urban development over the past 25 years. However, scenario modeling suggests that, still, more prime cropland will be converted into urban areas than necessary, and that it may be difficult to protect prime cropland to the extent mandated by the Swiss prime cropland protection policy. We have developed an approach to a priori evaluate spatial planning measures. However, the strict implementation of these planning measures will be needed in order to maintain prime cropland to a level required for agricultural self-sufficiency and food security.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How Effective Is Spatial Planning for Cropland Protection? An Assessment Based on Land-Use Scenarios

Tobias

Price

2020

Land

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“…The robustness of the model is demonstrated in numerous applications worldwide [3,4,21,60,71,80]. For the GDR, the MOLAND was calibrated based on datasets for the years 1990, 1996, 2000 and 2006 [69].…”

Section: The Moland Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Loose One-Way Coupling of Land Use and Nutrient Emission Models to Assess Effects of Regional Development Scenarios on Catchment Water Quality

Mockler

Shahumyan

Williams

et al. 2020

Environ Model Assess

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Nutrient enrichment and eutrophication can increase when urbanisation and intensification of agriculture production occurs without accompanying mitigation measures to offset impacts from land use transitions. The identification of measures to protect or restore water quality is a challenging exercise, particularly in the context of increasing population and urbanisation. Hence, decision-makers need adequate tools to better understand and evaluate the effects of policy interventions on water management and quality control in urban regions. A model integration method was developed to assess future scenarios of urban development on water quality using land use model Monitoring Land Use/Cover Dynamics and nutrient emission model Source Load Apportionment Model. A case study application investigated how projected changes in urban land use in the most populated region of Ireland, the Greater Dublin Region, impact on water quality. Results for all scenarios indicate increasing losses to water for both phosphorus (18–25%) and nitrogen (9–12%). However, as these scenarios assume that wastewater treatment efficiencies remain static into the future, this study highlights that the magnitude and distribution of investment in urban wastewater collection and treatment will have the greatest impact on changes in future nutrient emissions to water in this urban region. The differences between the development scenarios for diffuse nutrient losses were small in comparison, even though the location of specific land uses varied broadly across scenarios. It was found that the decline of agricultural land cover and replacement with urban development in Dublin region by 2026 as represented by four modelled scenarios resulted in substantial increases in diffuse phosphorus emissions, but only slight changes in diffuse nitrogen emissions. It was shown that the scales of impact from sources of nutrients vary from scenario to scenario and that these should be considered alongside planned mitigation of point sources of nutrient emissions to water. Such information can support physical planners, catchment managers and policy makers to plan accordingly to get the best possible environmental outcomes. The case study application demonstrated that the loose one-way coupling of a land use model and a nutrient emission model can be an effective and inexpensive approach to improve understanding of the effects of urbanisation on water quality and assist in the strategic planning of catchment management and infrastructure investment.

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“…The inputs and outputs of the MOLAND Model can be seen in Table 1. The spatio-temporal characteristics of the MOLAND output are presented in Table 2 (Shahumyan, Williams, Petrov, & Foley, 2014).…”

Section: The Moland Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario Analysis of Alternative Land Development Patterns for the Leipzig-Halle Region: Implications for Transport-Land-Use Sustainability

Ustaoglu

Williams

Petrov

2017

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The objective of this paper is to present alternative land development scenarios for the sustainability impact assessment of transport-land-use relationship in the Leipzig-Halle Region. Using the MOLAND Model that was applied to a declining urban region for the first time, two different land-use scenarios were developed representing a baseline dispersed development and an alternative compact development case. The assessment of land-use-transport relationships is carried out incorporating the use of social, economic and environmental indicators. The impacts and indicators were specified and evaluated subject to a quantitative and qualitative assessment. The findings imply that a compact development scenario is preferable over dispersed development scenario in terms of potential quantitative data on the benefits to the environment and society. In contrast, dispersed development in the baseline case indicates the costs of such development exceed the benefits. The results of this type of scenario analysis provide an objective evidence basis in policy evaluation and decisions regarding future urban developments. This research was developed from several scenarios created with the key stakeholders of the Leipzig-Halle Region from research originally conducted as part of the PLUREL Project in 2012 and updated in 2016. It aims at contributing to literature by providing a sustainability assessment framework for rapid rail infrastructure provision that incorporates socio-economic and environmental impact assessment of alternative future urban form scenarios into the analysis. In addition, due to MOLAND features, it provides the opportunity for the sustainability impact assessment of different forms of urban development linked with transport infrastructure provision in the Region and compare the findings with other case study areas in Europe and internationally.

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Regional Development Scenario Evaluation through Land Use Modelling and Opportunity Mapping

Cited by 11 publications

References 38 publications

How Effective Is Spatial Planning for Cropland Protection? An Assessment Based on Land-Use Scenarios

How Effective Is Spatial Planning for Cropland Protection? An Assessment Based on Land-Use Scenarios

Loose One-Way Coupling of Land Use and Nutrient Emission Models to Assess Effects of Regional Development Scenarios on Catchment Water Quality

Scenario Analysis of Alternative Land Development Patterns for the Leipzig-Halle Region: Implications for Transport-Land-Use Sustainability

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