Regional frequency analysis of multiyear droughts using watershed and climatic information

Paulson, Edwin G.; Sadeghipour, Jamshid; Dracup, John A.

doi:10.1016/0022-1694(85)90197-0

Cited by 18 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The distribution, mean and the variance of these random variables were theoretically derived. Paulson et al (1985), conducted regional frequency analysis of multiyear droughts using multiple linear regression to estimate characteristics of drought severity, magnitude, and duration from indices of watershed geomorphology and climate. Sadeghipour and Dracup (1985) proposed a method of multiyear regional frequency analysis of droughts by standardizing drought severities with a duration adjustment.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic simulation of droughts. Part 2: regional droughts

Mohan

Sahoo

2007

Hydrological Processes

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Abstract:In Part 1 we demonstrated the applicability of stochastic models to predicting the characteristics of point drought events within any planning period by means of a case study (Mohan S, Sahoo PK (2007) Hydrological Processes 21: this issue). In addition, studies on regional droughts are important in the context of regional level planning and evolving management strategies. The small number of drought events from a particular streamflow or rainfall series, when subjected to statistical analysis in order to predict future occurrences, produces results that are not very reliable. To overcome this difficulty, we propose using a long sequence of synthetically generated annual rainfall series at various rain-gauge stations of a region, and multiyear regional droughts were derived from both historic and generated series. The key parameters for a successful regional multiyear drought study are the critical area ratio and the critical level, and the area affected by the drought can be ascertained using these parameters. The important regional drought parameters were determined and their suitable probability distributions were arrived at by studying a total of nine possible probability models; these models can be used in predicting the longest regional drought duration and the greatest regional drought severity with a given return period. The effect of change of critical parameters on the regional drought parameters is also studied and reported.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic simulation of droughts. Part 2: regional droughts

Mohan

Sahoo

2007

Hydrological Processes

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“…Based on this definition, both simulation studies have been carried out in order to fit probability distributions to drought parameters extracted from simulated series generated by a streamflow generation techniques (Millan and Jevjevich, 1971) and analytic distributions have been fitted directly to historical data to obtain the probability distribution of maximum drought duration and severity. Other approaches to multiyear drought frequency analysis based on the above definition include the application of multiple linear regression techniques to derive estimates of drought parameters using watershed and climatic information (Paulson et al, 1985) as well as the use of hazard-function models to reproduce the duration-dependent termination rate of a drought data set (Lee et al, 1986).…”

Section: Previous Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology – A comparison of methods

Arena¹,

Cannarozzo²,

Mazzola³

2006

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C

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This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter k to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.

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“…A drought can be characterized by three components: severity, duration, and magnitude (Paulson et al, 1985). Severity is the cumulative volume of water deficit during a drought, duration is the number of consecutive time periods comprising the drought event, and magnitude is the average deficit per time period and can be calculated as the severity divided by the duration.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous drought research includes that of Clausen & Pearson (1995), who examined annual drought events, and Paulson et al (1985), who investigated multiyear droughts from a regional perspective. Streamflow data were used to form multiple regression models for drought severity and drought duration.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated approach to the estimation of streamflow drought quantiles / Une méthode intégrée d’estimation des quantiles de sécheresse hydrologique

Burn

Wychreschuk

Bonin

2004

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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An approach was developed for combining streamflow drought information from synthetic (generated) data with data reconstructed based on palaeoclimatic information (tree ring widths). The tree ring data were used to reconstruct streamflow in periods when no streamflow data were collected. The reconstructed data were then used as a source of historical data for estimating drought severity quantiles. The generated data were obtained using a nearest neighbour resampling method while the tree ring reconstruction was accomplished using a regression model. The application of the approach was to data from the Athabasca River in Alberta, Canada. The results demonstrate the feasibility and the utility of the approach for obtaining more accurate and precise estimates of extreme drought severity quantiles.

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Regional frequency analysis of multiyear droughts using watershed and climatic information

Cited by 18 publications

References 16 publications

Stochastic simulation of droughts. Part 2: regional droughts

Stochastic simulation of droughts. Part 2: regional droughts

Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology – A comparison of methods

An integrated approach to the estimation of streamflow drought quantiles / Une méthode intégrée d’estimation des quantiles de sécheresse hydrologique

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