Regional Market Integration and Sustainable Development: The Nexus and Policy Implications

Sendhil, R; Bijla, Shweta; Mahida, Darshnaben; Das, Jagruti; Sinha, Manjisha; Das, Anup Kumar; Kumareswaran, T.

doi:10.5958/2322-0430.2018.00058.6

Cited by 4 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Post Levene's test, the price data (204 observation per state) were plotted to see the pattern over years and across states. The time plot indicated an increasing trend in prices for all markets corroborating the findings of Sendhil et al (2018). Kerala registered the highest fluctuation and is attributed to no-wheat production in the state.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 77%

“…The estimate of IPR and ASVP plays an important role in taking agribusiness decisions right from production, consumption and trade (Mahalle et al 2015). The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of seasonal price index was positive for all the wholesale markets except Maharashtra (-0.04 %) as indicated earlier by Sendhil et al (2018). Further, the estimated growth rates (%) were low across markets and generally found to be less than one.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 73%

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Price dynamics in Indian wholesale wheat markets: Insights and implications

et al. 2021

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Wheat is an integral part of food as well as nutrition security holding a significant share in the consumption basket. Hence, any extreme deviations in the staple food price will affect the prospects of the economy. In the context, we analysed the price dynamics and price volatility in Indian wholesale wheat markets using compound annual growth rate, instability indices, and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. The study sourced monthly data (July 2002 to June 2019) from the AGMARKNET portal for 15 states. Research findings indicated that the wholesale price, as well as divergence between maximum and minimum price, was highest in the case of Kerala implying the non-production region. Monthly price indices (highest as well as lowest in Haryana respectively during December: 109.90 and July: 91.48) exhibited a clear-cut seasonality attributed to the wheat arrivals post-crop harvest. Barring Maharashtra, the growth and variation in seasonal price indices were positive and relatively low respectively across markets. Corroborating the price trend, Kerala exhibited the highest volatility as evident by the GARCH model estimates, followed by Gujarat, Haryana and Chhattisgarh. Inter alia, volatility in wheat prices is directly linked to regional production. The study advocates for effective dissemination of market information such as price forecast, demand and supply to counter the price volatility as well as decision making for profitable agri-business.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 73%

Price dynamics in Indian wholesale wheat markets: Insights and implications

et al. 2021

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“…Similarly, Mumbai and Patna wholesale markets had a uni-directional influence of prices on New Delhi's wholesale and retail markets, respectively. A similar kind of scenario prevailed for wheat (Table 10) corroborating price transmission across regions [38].…”

Section: Price Transmission Between Wholesale and Retail Markets Of R...supporting

confidence: 65%

Price Dynamics and Integration in India's Staple Food Commodities – Evidence from Wholesale and Retail Rice and Wheat Markets

Sendhil¹,

Arora²,

Kumar³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Uncertain price movement in staple food commodities puts agrarian economies at risk if not monitored and managed consistently. Hence, an attempt has been made to analyze the price behavior and integration across major wholesale and retail markets for rice and wheat in India. Monthly data (July 2000 to June 2022) on prices viz., wholesale and retail were sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization and analyzed using growth rate, instability index, seasonal price index, Johansen’s test on cointegration, Granger causality test, and impulse response function. Findings indicated strong evidence of price dynamics in the selected markets in terms of spatial and temporal variation, clear-cut seasonality linking to production, and price divergence between wholesale and retail markets. Johansen’s test indicated a strong integration between wholesale and retail markets exhibiting unidirectional-, bidirectional- and no-causality. Impulse response analysis revealed that the selected wheat and rice markets are efficient in terms of ‘price discovery’ which takes place initially in the wholesale market, and then transmitted to the retail market. The study advocates decision-making information to the producers, traders, and consumers who have a potential interest in getting advantage of the price movement. It is concluded that strengthening market intelligence and reducing the distortion in markets will improve the existing overall performance.

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“…price analysis highlights the dynamic behaviour of the time series in different regions which helps to draw appropriate economic implications. Wheat prices in selected markets exhibited spatial and temporal variations because of the biological nature coupled with geographical concentration of production across india (Sendhil et al 2018, Sendhil et al 2019.…”

Section: Ar (P)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Price analysis and forecasting for decision making: Insights from wheat markets in India

Cariappa¹,

Kathayat²,

Karthiga³

et al. 2020

Indian J Agri Sci

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Wheat occupies a prime position in supplementing the food security needs of India. Price forecast related to a food commodity is essential in executing policies which ensure market support. Keeping this in view, an attempt was made to forecast monthly wholesale wheat prices adopting ARIMA model in spatially separated markets of India using the historical data sourced from AGMARK price portal (July 2002-June 2018). Wheat prices exhibited a clearcut seasonality captured through monthly price indices. The prices were found to be highest during the crop season (November-March) as it is the production phase lacking market supply and lowest during post-harvest season (June- October) wherein supply surge is witnessed. The average seasonal price variation and intra-year price rise were found to be highest in Haryana, followed by Punjab. Forecasted prices estimated by fitting the ARIMA model were found to be higher for low or negligible wheat producing states such as Kerala and Karnataka, and lower for higher wheat producing states like Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Forecast performance the fitted models were further supported by using measures like RMSE, MAPE and MAE with 95% confidence interval. The study emphasized the need for effective dissemination of market information such as price forecast to farmers, agri-based industries and other concerned stakeholders which will help in decision making apart from tracking price volatility.

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Regional Market Integration and Sustainable Development: The Nexus and Policy Implications

Cited by 4 publications

References 7 publications

Price dynamics in Indian wholesale wheat markets: Insights and implications

Price dynamics in Indian wholesale wheat markets: Insights and implications

Price Dynamics and Integration in India's Staple Food Commodities – Evidence from Wholesale and Retail Rice and Wheat Markets

Price analysis and forecasting for decision making: Insights from wheat markets in India

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