Regional risk analysis and derivation of copula-based drought for severity-duration curve in arid and semi-arid regions

Bazrafshan, Ommolbanin; Zamani, Hossein; Shekari, Marzieh; Singh, Vijay P.

doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03217-0

Cited by 21 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The concept of empirical copulas is in fact similar to the concept of graph positional formulas used in the univariate statistical analysis. When a large enough sample is available, empirical copulas can be used to create non-parametric joint empirical probability distributions that are computationally efficient [43,44].…”

Section: Copula Functionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The AIC is computed based on the Kullback-Leibler distance from information theory, and the SBC is based on the integrated likelihood from Bayesian theory, which both impose an appropriate penalty on the average of the log-likelihood of models estimated given the number of coefficients estimated. A model with the lowest AIC and SBC values is the one most likely to be the best [43,44]. In the K-S test, if the p-value was more than 0.05, the null hypothesis that the drought distribution follows the candidate parametric one is accepted at 5% level of significance.…”

Section: Correlation Structures Of Drought Variables and Fitting Of M...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using Multi-Dimensional Copulas in the Wadi Ouahrane Basin in Algeria

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Bazrafshan

Wałęga

et al. 2022

Water

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A persistent precipitation deficiency (meteorological drought) could spread to surface water bodies and produce a hydrological drought. Meteorological and hydrological droughts are thus closely related, even though they are separated by a time lag. For this reason, it is paramount for water resource planning and for drought risk analysis to study the connection between these two types of drought. With this aim, in this study, both meteorological and hydrological drought were analyzed in the Wadi Ouahrane Basin (Northwest Algeria). In particular, data from six rainfall stations and one hydrometric station for the period 1972–2018 were used to evaluate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) at multiple timescales (1, 2, 3, 4, …, 12 months). By means of a copula function, the conditional return period for both types of drought was evaluated. Results evidenced that runoff is characterized by high level of temporal correlation in comparison to rainfall. Moreover, the composite index JDHMI (Joint Deficit Hydro-meteorological Index) was evaluated. This index is able to reflect the simultaneous hydrological and meteorological behavior at different timescales of 1–12 months well and can present the probability of a common hydrological and meteorological deficit situation more accurately and realistically compared to precipitation or runoff-based indicators. It was found that, over the analyzed basin, the average severity of combined hydro-meteorological drought (JDHMI) was 10.19, with a duration of 9 months and a magnitude of 0.93.

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Section: Copula Functionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Correlation Structures Of Drought Variables and Fitting Of M...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using Multi-Dimensional Copulas in the Wadi Ouahrane Basin in Algeria

Achite

Bazrafshan

Wałęga

et al. 2022

Water

Self Cite

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“…The estimation of marginal and joint return periods has an important role in drought planning and water resources management. The univariate drought return periods can be calculated as given by (Ganguli and Reddy 2014;Mortuza et al 2019;Bazrafshan et al 2020):…”

Section: Probabilities and Return Periods Of Extreme Drought Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The copula function can solve the problem of dependence structure with non-linear correlation and jointly simulate the drought variables with different probability distributions more objectively (Cancelliere and Salas, 2004;Salvadori and De Michele 2010). In hydrology, different marginal probability distributions and copula functions are used to construct bivariate homogenous regions and projections worldwide (Azam et al 2018;Montaseri et al 2018;She and Xia 2018;Bazrafshan, et al 2020;Li and Liu 2020). Therefore, the present study is conducted to construct bivariate homogenous climatic regions and projections using the drought characteristics of duration and severity simultaneously based on copula functions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bivariate homogenous regions and projections based on copula function using RDI and SPI indices for drought risk assessment in Pakistan

Ullah

Akbar

2021

Arab J Geosci

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This study aims to construct bivariate homogenous regions and projections for drought and water resources planning in Pakistan. The Reconnaissance Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index are applied to extract variables of drought duration and severity for the selected sites which have high correlation and skewed shape. Five homogenous regions are constructed WRT drought duration and severity, simultaneously. Best-fit regional probability distribution out of five 3-parameter distributions is selected and estimated using L-moment statistical technique. For joint distribution, the best-fit Gumbel-Hougaard copula is selected based on graphical and numerical statistical tools. The selected copula has the property to measure upper-tail dependence which is highly important in drought risk assessment. Potential drought risks are estimated and compared through univariate and bivariate joint return periods at selected years. The drought duration and severity increase with an increase in return periods. The contour lines for combinations of drought duration and severity at selected return periods are graphed. Most of the combinations in the regions are near the lines of lower return periods and have smaller interarrival times while some with larger interarrival times. Both the indices have no significant differences in results. Pakistan is facing frequent droughts and water scarcity. These results might help water resources planners, disaster management units, drought mitigation, and irrigation departments for better climate change planning in the country.

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“…where υ is the average time interval between the onsets of drought events [11,28]. In Table 7, single and multivariate return periods are presented, with the second, third, and fourth columns representing the duration, severity, and severity peak corresponding to the return periods of the first column, respectively.…”

Section: Frequency Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Frequency Analysis Based on the Development of a Two-Variate Standardized Index (Rainfall-Runoff)

Nikravesh

Aghababaei

Nazari-Sharabian

et al. 2020

Water

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Drought is one of the most drastic events, which has imposed irreparable damages on human societies and may occur in any climate regime. To define drought, given its properties of multidimensionality and randomity, one cannot rely on a single variable/index (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff). Accordingly, implementing a novel approach, this study investigated drought events in two basins with different climatic regimes, using multivariate frequency analyses of drought duration, severity, and severity peak, based on developing a Two-variate Standardized Index (TSI). The index was developed based on the concept of copula, by applying rainfall-runoff data (1974–2019) and comparing them with two popular drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Stream Flow Index (SSFI), in terms of derived drought characteristics. The results show that TSI determined more severe drought conditions with fewer return periods than SPI and SSFI in a specific drought event. This implies that the disadvantages of SPI and SSFI might not be found in TSI. The developed index can be employed by policymakers and planners to protect water resources from drought.

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Regional risk analysis and derivation of copula-based drought for severity-duration curve in arid and semi-arid regions

Cited by 21 publications

References 30 publications

Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using Multi-Dimensional Copulas in the Wadi Ouahrane Basin in Algeria

Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using Multi-Dimensional Copulas in the Wadi Ouahrane Basin in Algeria

Bivariate homogenous regions and projections based on copula function using RDI and SPI indices for drought risk assessment in Pakistan

Drought Frequency Analysis Based on the Development of a Two-Variate Standardized Index (Rainfall-Runoff)

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