Régionalisation d'un générateur de pluies horaires sur la France métropolitaine pour la connaissance de l'aléa pluviographique / Regionalization of an hourly rainfall generating model over metropolitan France for flood hazard estimation

Arnaud, Patrick; Lavabre, Jacques; Sol, B.; Desouches, Christine

doi:10.1623/hysj.53.1.34

Cited by 37 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The DDF statistics for France were calculated by applying the method SHYPRE (Simulated Hydrographs for flood Probability Estimation; Arnaud and Lavabre, 2002) to produce rainfall statistics across France (Arnaud et al, 2008 generates data for hourly extremes at a square kilometre scale, from which DDF statistics were derived. This data set is therefore treated a bit differently regarding the reduction factors, as only the spatial reduction factor is applicable, see Section 3.3.…”

Section: Francementioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at hourly resolution

Berg

Christensen

Klehmet

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Regional climate model simulations have routinely been applied to assess changes in precipitation extremes at daily time steps. However, shorter sub-daily extremes have not received as much attention. This is likely because of the limited availability of high temporal resolution data, both for observations and for model outputs. Here, summertime depth duration frequencies of a sub-set of the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble is evaluated with observations for several European countries for durations of one to 12 h. Most of the model simulations strongly underestimate 10-year depths for durations up to a few hours, but do better on 12 h durations. All models fail in reproducing observed spatial patterns over Germany for durations shorter than 12 h, but all reproduce the pattern at least partly at 12 h duration. Large-scale driven spatial patterns, such as the extreme depths in southern France are better captured also at shorter durations, albeit severely underestimated. Projected changes are assessed by relating relative depth changes to mean temperature changes. A strong relationship with temperature is found across sub-regions of Europe, the emission scenario and future time period. However, there is an equally strong dependency on the global and regional model applied, with a spread in scaling of around 1–10 %/K at 12 h duration, and generally higher values at shorter durations.

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Section: Francementioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at hourly resolution

Berg

Christensen

Klehmet

et al. 2018

Preprint

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“…At national level, Météo-France developed a heavy rainfall warning system, called APIC (Avertissement Pluies Intenses à l'échelle des Communes) (Carrière et al 2013), based on the comparison of cumulated rainfall estimates (from radar fields and gauge measurements as described below) with reference rainfall quantiles (maximum rainfall in 1-72 h durations) for various return periods. The rainfall quantiles are derived by a frequency analysis method called SHYREG (Simulation d'HYdrogrammes REGionnalisés) using a regionalized stochastic rainfall generator (Arnaud et al 2008). The APIC automated warning system is limited to spatial areas with high quality radar-gauge rainfall estimates and does not account for hydrological conditions and basin response.…”

Section: Flash-flood Warning Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This method is based on a regionalized stochastic rainfall generator (Arnaud et al 2008), which is coupled to the rainfall-runoff model used by AIGA in real-time at the 1-km 2 resolution. The 1-km 2 gridded estimates of discharge for various durations and return periods are statistically aggregated to produce flood frequency estimates at any point along the river network.…”

Section: Comparing To Reference Peak Flow Quantilesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

Javelle¹,

Demargne

Defrance³

et al. 2014

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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This article presents a comparison between real-time discharges calculated by a flash-flood warning system and post-event flood peak estimates. The studied event occurred on 15 and 16 June 2010 at the Argens catchment located in the south of France. Real-time flood warnings were provided by the AIGA (Adaptation d'Information Géographique pour l'Alerte en Crue) warning system, which is based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1-km 2 resolution using radar rainfall information. The timing of the warnings (updated every 15 min) was compared to the observed flood impacts. Furthermore, "consolidated" flood peaks estimated by an intensive post-event survey were used to evaluate the AIGA-estimated peak discharges. The results indicated that the AIGA warnings clearly identified the most affected areas. However, the effective lead-time of the event detection was short, especially for fastresponse catchments, because the current method does not take into account any rainfall forecast. The flood peak analysis showed a relatively good correspondence between AIGA-and field-estimated peak values, although some differences were due to the rainfall underestimation by the radar and rainfall-runoff model limitations.Key words evaluation; flash flood; ungauged; warning system; post-event survey Evaluation des avertissements de crue éclair sur des bassins non-jaugés en utilisant des relevés post-événement: application avec le système d'avertissement AIGA Résumé Cet article présente une comparaison des débits calculés en temps réel par un système d'avertissement de crues éclair avec des estimations post-événement des pics de crue. L'événement étudié s'est déroulé les 15 et 16 juin 2010 sur le bassin de l'Argens, situé dans le Sud de la France. Les débits en temps réel ont été calculés par le système d'avertissement AIGA (Adaptation d'Information Géographique pour l'Alerte en Crue), qui associe un modèle hydrologique distribué simple et une lame d'eau radar à la résolution de 1 km 2 . La chronologie des avertissements émis a été comparée aux dégâts observés. De plus, des estimations de pic de crue réalisées au cours de relevés de terrain après l'événement ont permis d'évaluer la pertinence des débits estimés par AIGA. Les résultats ont montré qu'AIGA a clairement indiqué les zones les plus affectées par la crue. Cependant, l'anticipation des avertissements a été courte, en particulier sur les bassins rapides, du fait que le système n'intègre pas de prévision de pluie. L'analyse des pics de crue a montré une relative bonne correspondance entre les débits calculés par AIGA et ceux estimés sur le terrain, avec cependant des différences. Celles-ci sont liées à une sous-estimation de la lame d'eau radar sur certains bassins et aux limites du modèle hydrologique.Mots clefs non jaugé ; crue éclair ; système d'avertissement ; relevés post-événement

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“…Dealing with (very) extreme values, finding a relevant accuracy test is not an easy task 6 . Arnaud et al (2008) proposed a simple test which is also used in (Garavaglia et al, 2010). The purpose of this test is to count the number of stations where a given quantile (estimated by the tested method) is exceeded by the maximum observed rainfall.…”

Section: Impacts On the Rainfall Quantiles Estimated By The Generatormentioning

confidence: 99%

Gains from modelling dependence of rainfall variables into a stochastic model: application of the copula approach at several sites

Cantet¹,

Arnaud²

2012

Preprint

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Since the last decade, copulas have become more and more widespread in the construction of hydrological models. Unlike the multivariate statistics which are traditionally used, this tool enables scientists to model different dependence structures without drawbacks. The authors propose to apply copulas to improve the performance of an existing model. The hourly rainfall stochastic model SHYPRE is based on the simulation of descriptive variables. It generates long series of hourly rainfall and enables the estimation of distribution quantiles for different climates. The paper focuses on the relationship between two variables describing the rainfall signal. First, Kendall's tau is estimated on each of the 217 rain gauge stations in France, then the False Discovery Rate procedure is used to define stations for which the dependence is significant. Among three usual archimedean copulas, a unique 2-copula is chosen to model this dependence for any station. Modelling dependence leads to an obvious improvement in the reproduction of the standard and extreme statistics of maximum rainfall, especially for the sub-daily rainfall. An accuracy test for the extreme values shows the good asymptotic behaviour of the new rainfall generator version and the impacts of the copula choice on extreme quantile estimation

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Régionalisation d'un générateur de pluies horaires sur la France métropolitaine pour la connaissance de l'aléa pluviographique / Regionalization of an hourly rainfall generating model over metropolitan France for flood hazard estimation

Cited by 37 publications

References 26 publications

Precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at hourly resolution

Precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at hourly resolution

Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

Gains from modelling dependence of rainfall variables into a stochastic model: application of the copula approach at several sites

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