Regression analysis of the dependence of the cherry yield from hydro-thermal factors in the conditions of multicolinearity

Abstract

In the conditions of the Southern Steppe zone of Ukraine the influence of weather factors of the region on the formation of cherry yield within the limits of 2007-2019 years of researches is revealed. The correlation analysis allowed us to identify ten weather factors that have a notable (significant) and strong, both direct and inverse linear correlation with cherry yield (r = 0.68…-0.86). The model describing the influence of hydrothermal factors on cherry yield is proposed. Multicollinearity effects were detected when analyzing data using paired correlation coefficients and VIF. In this case, using the least squares method to construct and analyze the regression model is inefficient. A regression model based on the LASSO method is proposed. The LASSO method allows reliable estimation of regression parameters. On the basis of the constructed model the factors influencing the cherry yield index are analyzed and it is shown that the most significant factor is the average monthly rainfall for August, mm, then the factor is the absolute minimum relative humidity in May, %, the amount of rainfall during the flowering period, mm, the amount of the effective flowering temperatures, °C, the difference between average maximum and minimum flowering temperatures, °C, the total number of days with precipitation during flowering period, day, the average of maximum air temperatures during flowering period, the amount of active temperatures during flowering period, °C, the amount of active temperatures during the growing season (before the fruit ripening phase), °C, the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) during flowering period. The indices of the share of influence of each factor on the total variance of the cherry yield index are determined. The share of influence of the factor is x1-9.

Factorial analysis of taste quality and technological properties of cherry fruits depending on weather factors

“…Such principal components of the chemical composition, like sugars and organic acids, are involved in forming the taste qualities of the crop. The importance of crop varieties with high taste qualities has recently increased for fresh consumption and processing [14], [15]. It was established that the content of dry soluble substances is in the inverse average correlation dependence on the amount of precipitation for the cherry fruit of the Lotovka (-0.76) and Shpanka (-0.83) varieties [16].…”

Вплив Абіотичних Чинників Півдня Степової Зони України На Формування Врожайності Черешні

“…Розрахунок моделей урожайності черешні у зв'язку з погодними чинниками проводили за схемою, яка докладно описана у наших попередніх публікаціях 12,13 Найменший рівень отриманого врожаю зафіксовано у сорту Удівітельна (2,00 т/га) урожаю 2009 р. Вона була нижчою за середнє сортове значення на 77,0%. Максимальний рівень урожаю (16,79 т/га) був у сорту Анонс у 2010 р. При цьому перевищення над середнім сортовим значенням становило 92,8% (табл.…”

The influence of abiotic factors on formation of taste qualities of chtrry fruits

“…Плоди вишні цінять не тільки за приємний смак, а й за дієтичні властивості, як в свіжому, так і у вигляді їх продуктів переробки. На фоні використання плодів вишні в першу чергу на переробку, в останній час збільшується значення сортів культури з високими смаковими якостями для споживання у свіжому вигляді [1,2].…”