Regression-matrix Model and Its Application in Socio-economic Foresight

Abstract

This paper proposes a regression-matrix model for predicting the socioeconomic development of regional systems. The ability to build up such a model provides for the classification of indicators into groups depending on their socioeconomic purpose. The structured data presentation has led to the prerequisite for a graded construction of models that ensure a proactive balance of the dynamics at two levels: cluster-type and system-based. According to the assumption, group balance should ensure the consistency of the expected growth of each indicator with the group dynamics of the corresponding block. The systemic balance is provided by the introduction of group dynamics indicators in the form of principal components, in turn, the regression-matrix approach is applied.