Relation Between Air Temperature and Inland Surface Water Temperature During Climate Change (1961–2014): Case Study of the Polish Lowland

The objective of the paper consisted in determining the effect of macroscale types of NAO, AO, EA, EAWR, SCAND, and AMO atmospheric circulation on changes in water temperature in Polish rivers. The study has made use of a broad body of hydrometeorological materials covering daily water temperature values for 96 water gauge stations located on 53 rivers and air temperature values for 43 meteorological stations. Percentage shares of positive and negative coefficients of correlation of annual, seasonal, and monthly circulation type indices with air and river water temperature were determined, demonstrating the character of teleconnection. Determinations were made of water temperature deviations in positive and negative phases of the analyzed indices from average values from the years 1971–2015, and their statistical significance ascertained. Research has shown that relations between the temperature of river waters in Poland and macroscale circulation types are not strong, however they are noticeable, sometimes even statistically significant, and both temporally and spatially diverse. NAO, AO, EA, and AMO indices are characterized by a generally positive correlation with temperature, whereas SCAND and EWAR indices are characterized by a negative correlation. Research showed a varying impact of types of atmospheric circulation, with their effectiveness increasing in the winter season. The strongest impact on temperature was observed for the positive and negative NAO and AO phases, when deviations of water temperature from average values are correspondingly higher (up to 1.0 °C) and lower (by a maximum of 1.5 °C), and also for the positive and negative SCAND phases, when water temperature are correspondingly lower (by a maximum of 0.8 °C) and higher (by 1.2 °C) than average values. The strongest impact on water temperature in summer, mainly in July, was observed for AMO. The results point to the complexity of processes determining the thermal regime of rivers and to the possibility of additional factors—both regional and local—exerting an influence on their temporal and spatial variability.

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between Water Temperature of Polish Rivers and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Graf

Wrzesiński

2019

“…The majority of authors have focused on an assessment of change tendencies at the start and end dates of RI and its duration, which, in light of the recorded increase in TA and TW, usually gives a result pointing to the shortening thereof. Apart from warmer winters, an increase in TA in the autumn and spring periods has also been noticeable, especially during the last twenty years of the 20th century but in recent decades as well [38,39,[69][70][71][72], which delays the date of appearance of IP in rivers and also accelerates their disappearance. Analyses conducted for the last five-to-six decades in Polish rivers [21,22,24,25,31,42,51,64,65,[73][74][75] have confirmed that the duration of IP has been shortened, though their respective change trends have differed along individual river sections.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An analysis of circulatory determinants impacting the occurrence of IC in the Noteć River was performed by Graf and Tomczyk [23], while an assessment of the relationship between the TW of Polish rivers and large-scale atmospheric circulation, which was accompanied by the disclosure of TW change patterns in Poland, was carried out by Graf and Wrzesiński [38,39] and Marszelewski and Pius [71,72]. Research conducted by Yoo and D'Odorico [5] in Northern Europe showed that the ice regime of surface waters is connected with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the features of which confirm long-term climate change [16].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of the Dependence of Ice Phenomena Trends on Air and Water Temperature in River

Graf

2020

The identification of changes in the ice phenomena (IP) in rivers is a significant element of analyses of hydrological regime features, of the risk of occurrence of ice jam floods, and of the ecological effects of river icing (RI). The research here conducted aimed to estimate the temporal and spatial changes in the IP in a lowland river in the temperate climate (the Noteć River, Poland, Central Europe), depending on air temperature (TA) and water temperature (TW) during the multi-annual period of 1987–2013. Analyses were performed of IP change trends in three RI phases: freezing, when there appears stranded ice (SI), frazil ice (FI), or stranded ice with frazil ice (SI–FI); the phase of stable ice cover (IC) and floating ice (FoI); and the phase of stranded ice with floating ice (SI–FoI), frazil ice with floating ice (FI–FoI), and ice jams (IJs). Estimation of changes in IP in connection with TA and TW made use of the regression model for count data with a negative binomial distribution and of the zero-inflated negative binomial model. The analysis of the multi-annual change tendency of TA and TW utilized a non-parametric Mann–Kendall test for detecting monotonic trends with Yue–Pilon correction (MK–YP). Between two and seven types of IP were registered at individual water gauges, while differences were simultaneously demonstrated in their change trends over the researched period. The use of the Vuong test confirmed the greater effectiveness of estimates for the zero-inflated model than for the temporal trend model, thanks to which an increase in the probability of occurrence of the SI phenomenon in the immediate future was determined; this, together with FI, was found to be the most frequently occurring IP in rivers in the temperate climate. The models confirmed that TA is the best estimator for the evaluation of trends of the occurrence of IC. It was shown that the predictive strength of models increases when thermal conditions are taken into consideration, but it is not always statistically significant. In all probability, this points to the impact of local factors (changes in bed and valley morphology and anthropogenic pressure) that are active regardless of thermal conditions and modify the features of the thermal-ice regime of rivers at specific spatial locations. The results of research confirm the effectiveness of compilating a few models for the estimation of the dependence of IP trends on air and water temperature in a river.

“…Unlike flowing waters, more unambiguous trends in changes of hydrological conditions have been observed in Polish lakes, in which lowering of the water level has been visible since the second half of the 20th century [18,71]. At the same time, an increase in water temperature was recorded in lakes [72][73][74]. Wang et al [75] forecasted a further global increase in evaporation from lakes and estimate that the global annual lake evaporation will increase by 16% by the end of the century.…”

Section: Increase In Evaporation and Changes In Hydrological And Physmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Potential Evaporation in the Years 1952–2018 in North-Western Poland in Terms of the Impact of Climatic Changes on Hydrological and Hydrochemical Conditions

Okoniewska

Szumińska

2020

The paper analyses changes in potential evaporation E0 (mm) in north-western Poland in the years 1952–2018. E0 (mm) has been calculated according to Ivanov’s formula based on the monthly values of air temperature (t, °C) and relative air humidity (f, %) for six weather stations of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The data were collected using the Statistica software ver. 13 and the QGIS software ver. 3.80. The results indicate statistically significant trends in the increase of E0 during the period 1952–2018, and that it is particularly high during the spring and summer months, which should be associated with a statistically significant increase in air temperature and a decrease in relative humidity at all examined stations. The results also indicate an exceptionally high increase in evaporation since the end of the 20th century and in the 21st century, which reflects a potentially higher risk of permanent changes in hydrological conditions. The research results point to the major role of climatic factors in the often-dramatic decreases in water resources observed in the 21st century, particularly in lakes and small watercourses. The progressing reduction of water resources may cause permanent changes in physical and chemical conditions in waterbodies.