Objective: Prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) provision is increasing markedly despite poor patient outcomes. Misunderstanding prognosis in the PMV decision making process could provide an explanation to this phenomenon. Therefore, we aimed to compare PMV decision makers' expectations for long-term patient outcomes with prospectively observed outcomes.Design, Setting, and Patients: 126 patients undergoing PMV, their surrogates, and their intensive care unit physicians were enrolled consecutively (total n=378) at an academic medical center between April 2006 and April 2007 and followed prospectively for one year.
Measurements:Participants were interviewed at the time of tracheostomy placement about their expectations for one-year patient survival, functional status, and quality of life. These expectations were then compared to observed one-year outcomes measured with validated questionnaires.Results: One-year follow up was 100%, with the exception of patient death or cognitive inability to complete interviews. At one year, only 11 (9%) patients were alive and independent of major functional status limitations. Most surrogates reported high baseline expectations for one-year patient survival (117 [93%]), functional status (90 [71%]), and quality of life (105 [83%]). In contrast, fewer physicians described high expectations for survival (54 [43%]), functional status (7 [6%]), and quality of life (5 [4%]). Surrogate-physician pair concordance in expectations was poor (all κ<0.08), as was their accuracy in outcome prediction (range 23-44%). Just 33 (26%) surrogates reported that physicians discussed what to expect for patients' likely future survival, general health, and caregiving needs.
Conclusions:One-year patient outcomes for PMV patients were significantly worse than expected by patients' surrogates and physicians. Lack of prognostication about outcomes, discordance between