Relationship between El-Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Indian monsoon

Мохов, И. И.; Смирнов, Д. А.; Nakonechny, P. I.; Kozlenko, S. S.; Kurths, Jürgen

doi:10.1134/s0001433812010082

Cited by 26 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 28 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The younger part of the population of this and the surrounding villages, from the age of thirty downwards, began to be deprived of the use of their limbs below the waist by paralytic strokes, in all cases sudden, but in some cases more severe than in others" (Sleeman, 1844). This account, which shows lag of about 3 years between drought and food shortages and lathyrism epidemics, is consistent with the known duration of effects of El Niño activity (Nicholson and Kim, 1997), which has been linked to changes in the Indian monsoon (Mokhov et al, 2012). Thus, occurrence of lathyrism epidemics in India from 1833 to 1902 is attributable to El Niño activity.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 65%

El Niño-southern oscillations and lathyrism epidemics

Oluwole

2015

Front. Environ. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Epidemics of lathyrism, a neurological syndrome of spastic paraparesis, have occurred during severe droughts in Europe, Asia, and Africa for millenia. Causation is linked to exposure to β-N-oxalyl-L-α,β-diaminopropionic acid (β-L-ODAP), a neurotoxin in Lathyrus sativus. Lathyrism shares neurological features with konzo, a syndrome of predominantly spastic paraparesis which occurs during droughts in East and Central Africa and is linked to El Niño activity. This study was done to determine the relationship of lathyrism epidemics to phases of El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and to propose a model to explain why the geospatial distributions of lathyrism and konzo are non-overlapping. Contingency table of phases of ENSO and occurrence of lathyrism epidemics in Central Provinces, India from 1833-1902 was created and odds ratio was calculated. Wavelet spectra of time series of annual occurrence of lathyrism in Rewah district, India, and its coherence with ENSO and PDO from 1894 to 1920 were performed. Lathyrism epidemic was associated with El Niño phase of ENSO, odds ratio 378 (95% 32-4475). Global spectra showed peaks at periodicities of 2.5 and 4.6 years for lathyrism; 2.7 and 5.0 years for PDO; and 2.5, 4.6, 7.0 years for ENSO. Spectrograms showed time-varying periodicities of 2.5-3.5 and 4.5-5.5 years for lathyrism; 2.0-3.0 and 6.5-9.0 years for ENSO; and 3.5 and 5.0 years for PDO, p < 0.0001. Spectral coherence were at 2.0-3.5 and 4.5-5.0 years for ENSO and lathyrism p < 0.0001, and 5.0 years for PDO and lathyrism p < 0.05. The droughts of El Niños initiate dependence on Lathyrus sativus, which exposes the population to neurotoxic β-L-ODAP. Public health control of lathyrism epidemics should include development of models to forecast El Niños and initiate food programmes in susceptible areas.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 65%

El Niño-southern oscillations and lathyrism epidemics

Oluwole

2015

Front. Environ. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Positive modularity values suggest the presence of communities. Thus, one can search for community structures by looking for the network divisions that have positive, and preferably large, modularity values (Newman, 2004). Modularity (M) is calculated as…”

Section: Community Detection and The Z − P Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach

Kurths

Agarwal

Shukla

et al. 2019

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. A better understanding of precipitation dynamics in the Indian subcontinent is required since India's society depends heavily on reliable monsoon forecasts. We introduce a non-linear, multiscale approach, based on wavelets and event synchronization, for unravelling teleconnection influences on precipitation. We consider those climate patterns with the highest relevance for Indian precipitation. Our results suggest significant influences which are not well captured by only the wavelet coherence analysis, the state-of-the-art method in understanding linkages at multiple timescales. We find substantial variation across India and across timescales. In particular, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mainly influence precipitation in the south-east at interannual and decadal scales, respectively, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong connection to precipitation, particularly in the northern regions. The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) stretches across the whole country, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences precipitation particularly in the central arid and semi-arid regions. The proposed method provides a powerful approach for capturing the dynamics of precipitation and, hence, helps improve precipitation forecasting.

show abstract

“…We have selected those indices for which earlier studies have shown a relation to Indian precipitation. The selected climate indices and the respective studies are: ENSO (Mokhov et al, 2012), IOD (? ), NAO (Kakade and Dugam, 2000), PDO (Dong, 2016;Krishnan and Sugi, 2003) and, AMO (?).…”

Section: Time Series Of Global and Regional Climate Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…cillation (ENSO) (Kumar et al, 2006;Mokhov et al, 2012), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (Krishnan and Swapna, 2009;Behera et al, 1999), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Bharath and Srinivas, 2015;Feliks et al, 2013), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Dong, 2016;Krishnan and Sugi, 2003), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (Goswami et al, 2006; Krishnamurthy and Krishnamurthy, 2016).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Unraveling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via nonlinear multi-scale approach

Kurths¹,

Agarwal²,

Marwan³

et al. 2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. A better understanding of precipitation dynamics in the Indian subcontinent is required since India’s society depends heavily on reliable monsoon forecasts. We introduce a nonlinear, multiscale approach, based on wavelets and event synchronization, for unraveling teleconnection influences on precipitation. We consider those climate patterns with highest relevance for Indian precipitation. Our results suggest significant influences which are not well captured by only the wavelet coherence analysis, the state-of-the-art method in understanding linkages at multiple time scales. We find substantial variation across India and across time scales. In particular, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mainly influence precipitation in the southeast at interannual and decadal scales, respectively, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong connection to precipitation particularly in the northern regions. The effect of PDO stretches across the whole country, whereas AMO influences precipitation particularly in the central arid and semi-arid regions. The proposed method provides a powerful approach for capturing the dynamics of precipitation and, hence, helps improving precipitation forecasting.

show abstract

Relationship between El-Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Indian monsoon

Cited by 26 publications

References 28 publications

El Niño-southern oscillations and lathyrism epidemics

El Niño-southern oscillations and lathyrism epidemics

Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach

Unraveling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via nonlinear multi-scale approach

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About