Relationship between projected changes in precipitation and fronts in the austral winter of the Southern Hemisphere from a suite of CMIP5 models

Blazquez, Josefina; Solman, Silvina Alicia

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4482-y

Cited by 14 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…reanalysis data. Blázquez and Solman (2019) found a similar result using climate model simulations, where Southern Hemisphere frontal precipitation largely increased with climate change due to increases in specific humidity. Hénin et al (2019) found the opposite response in the Gulf Stream region, where frontal precipitation decreased due to changes in cold fronts.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 66%

“…(2017) found an increase in the frequency of extremely strong fronts over Europe due to increases in atmospheric humidity, using historical reanalysis data. Blázquez and Solman (2019) found a similar result using climate model simulations, where Southern Hemisphere frontal precipitation largely increased with climate change due to increases in specific humidity. Hénin et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 56%

“…These changes are related to the seasonal shifts in front frequency, and in particular changes in cold and stationary fronts. This result also points to the importance of other sources of extreme precipitation over the U.S. (Huang et al, 2018), and the difficulty of disentangling total and extreme precipitation from converging sources (Blázquez & Solman, 2019;Kunkel & Champion, 2019;Kunkel et al, 2012). It is also important to note that model projections of frontal precipitation may be influenced by compensating errors in frequency and intensity, as shown in Catto, Jakob, and Nicholls (2015) evaluating wintertime frontal precipitation in CMIP5 models and Leung et al (2022) with CMIP6 models.…”

Section: Frontal Total and Extreme Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…Leung et al (2022) applied the method of Catto, Jakob, and Nicholls (2015) to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models with a typical horizontal resolution of 1° and found a similar compensation of bias terms from the frequency and intensity of frontal precipitation. Blázquez and Solman (2019) focused on changes in wintertime frontal precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere in a selection of CMIP5 models with atmospheric resolu tion no finer than 1.4°, and found humidity-driven increases in fronts over most of the region. Regionally varying changes in precipitation were largely consistent with changes in fronts over mid and high latitudes, confirming the results of Utsumi et al (2016) which showed that precipitation from ETCs including fronts increased poleward of storm tracks in future projections with a similar set of CMIP5 models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Machine Learning‐Based Detection of Weather Fronts and Associated Extreme Precipitation in Historical and Future Climates

Dagon

Truesdale

Biard³

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 66%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 56%

Section: Frontal Total and Extreme Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 83%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Machine Learning‐Based Detection of Weather Fronts and Associated Extreme Precipitation in Historical and Future Climates

Dagon

Truesdale

Biard³

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

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“…3a, b) show a discontinuity of the ITCZ over Northern South America, with a strong precipitation reduction over Venezuela, Colombia and Northern Brazil, and weakly reduced precipitation throughout the Amazon basin, Paraguay and Bolivia, maybe a consequence of transient systems not advancing northward (Blázquez and Solman 2019). In addition, both ensembles show a positive anomaly in Southern Brazil, including the LPB, which may be due to the action of the transient systems in this region Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over… 1 3 (Blázquez and Solman 2019;Reboita et al 2020). Again, the magnitude of the signal is greater in the RegCM4 ensemble.…”

Section: Spatial Precipitation and Wind Change Signalmentioning

confidence: 97%

Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains

et al. 2020

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This study evaluates the projected changes in the atmospheric water budget and precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario over two CORDEX-CORE domains: South America (SAM) and Europe (EUR). An ensemble of ive twenty-irst century projections with the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) and their driving Global Climate Models (GCMs) are analyzed in terms of the atmospheric water budget terms (precipitation, P; evapotranspiration, ET; and moisture lux convergence, C). Special focus is on four subregions: Amazon (AMZ), La Plata basin (LPB), Mid-Europe (ME) and Eastern Europe (EA). The precipitation change signal in SAM presents a dipole pattern, i.e. drier conditions in AMZ and wetter conditions in LPB. Over the two European regions a seasonality is evident, with an increase of ~ 25% in precipitation for DJF and a decrease of ~ 35% in JJA. The atmospheric water budget drivers of precipitation change vary by region and season. For example, in DJF the main drivers are related to the large-scale moisture lux convergence, while in JJA over the AMZ atmospheric moisture lux convergence plays only a minor role and local processes dominate. For JJA in the GCMs the high values of the residual term do not allow us to assess which mechanisms drive the precipitation change signal over the AMZ and LPB, respectively. Same conclusions are found for the RegCM4 JJA simulations over the LPB and EA. This points to the importance of the spatial resolution of climate simulations and the role of parameterization schemes in climate models. Our work illustrates the usefulness of analyzing regional water budgets for a better understanding of precipitation change patterns around our globe.

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Relationship between frontal systems and extreme precipitation over southern South America

Solari

Blazquez

Solman

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The relationship between frontal systems and extreme precipitation events over southern South America is analysed for the austral winter (May–August) and spring (September–December), on a 39‐year period spanning from 1979 to 2017. Daily gridded data from the CPC Global Unified Precipitation dataset and the ERA5 reanalysis are employed. Fronts are identified by means of an objective front index (FI) that takes into account both dynamic (cyclonic vorticity) and thermodynamic (thermal contrast) characteristics. Extreme precipitation is characterized by the seasonal 95th percentile. Fronts occur in mid‐latitudes in about 10% of the days but there is a seasonal shift with larger occurrence frequencies located at southern latitudes in spring compared to winter. Front intensity—calculated as the seasonal mean of FI—is stronger in winter than in spring but the spatial pattern is similar on both seasons. Fronts explain about 50% of extreme precipitation on winter and 40% on spring; the percentage of total precipitation explained by fronts is lower but the spatial distribution is similar. Comparison between fronts that produce precipitation and the ones associated with extreme precipitation revealed that the latter are more intense on average. Fronts that produce extreme precipitation have a stronger dynamic forcing (i.e., higher cyclonic vorticity values) and a higher moisture availability (higher specific humidity anomaly). These two characteristics are the most promising for enhancing extreme precipitation events forecast.

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Relationship between projected changes in precipitation and fronts in the austral winter of the Southern Hemisphere from a suite of CMIP5 models

Cited by 14 publications

References 24 publications

Machine Learning‐Based Detection of Weather Fronts and Associated Extreme Precipitation in Historical and Future Climates

Machine Learning‐Based Detection of Weather Fronts and Associated Extreme Precipitation in Historical and Future Climates

Assessing changes in the atmospheric water budget as drivers for precipitation change over two CORDEX-CORE domains

Relationship between frontal systems and extreme precipitation over southern South America

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