Abstract. The subtropical southern Indian Ocean (SIO) has been described as one
of the world's largest heat accumulators due to its remarkable warming
during the past 2 decades. However, the relative contributions of
remote (of Pacific origin) forcing and local wind forcing to the variability
of heat content and sea level in the SIO have not been fully attributed.
Here, we combine a general circulation model, an analytic linear reduced-gravity model, and observations to disentangle the spatial and temporal
inputs of each forcing component on interannual to decadal timescales. A
sensitivity experiment is conducted with artificially closed Indonesian
straits to physically isolate the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean,
intentionally removing the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) influence on the
Indian Ocean heat content and sea level variability. We show that the
relative contribution of the signals originating in the equatorial Pacific
vs. signals caused by local wind forcing to the interannual variability
of sea level and heat content in the SIO is dependent on location within the
basin (low latitude vs. midlatitude and western side vs. eastern side of the basin). The
closure of the ITF in the numerical experiment reduces the amplitude of
interannual-to-decadal sea level changes compared to the simulation with a
realistic ITF. However, the spatial and temporal evolution of sea level
patterns in the two simulations remain similar and correlated with El
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This suggests that these patterns are
mostly determined by local wind forcing and oceanic processes, linked to
ENSO via the “atmospheric bridge” effect. We conclude that local wind
forcing is an important driver for the interannual changes of sea level,
heat content, and meridional transports in the SIO subtropical gyre, while
oceanic signals originating in the Pacific amplify locally forced signals.