Abstract. The seasonal and interannual variations of the barrier layer thickness (BLT) in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is investigated in this study using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 3 (SODA v3) ocean reanalysis dataset. Analysis of this study suggests energetic but divergent seasonal variabilities of BLT in the western TIO (5∘ N–12∘ S, 55–75∘ E) and the eastern TIO (5∘ N–12∘ S, 85–100∘ E). For instance, the thicker barrier layer (BL) is observed in the western TIO during boreal winter as a result of decreasing sea surface salinity (SSS) and deeper thermocline, which are associated with the intrusion of freshwater flux and the weakened upwelling, respectively. On the contrary, the variation of BLT in the eastern TIO mainly corresponds to the variation in thermocline depth in all seasons. The interannual variability of BLT with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is explored. During the mature phase of positive IOD events, a thinner BL in the eastern TIO is attributed to the shallower thermocline, while a thicker BL appears in the western TIO due to deeper thermocline and fresher surface water. During negative IOD events, the thicker BL only occurs in the eastern TIO, corresponding to the deeper thermocline. During ENSO events, prominent BLT patterns are observed in the western TIO corresponding to two different physical processes during the developing and decaying phase of El Niño events. During the developing phase of El Niño events, the thicker BL in the western TIO is associated with deepening thermocline induced by the westward Rossby wave. During the decaying phase of El Niño events, the thermocline is weakly deepening, while the BLT reaches its maxima induced by the decreasing SSS.

The seasonal variability of sea surface salinity anomalies (SSSAs) in the Indian Ocean is investigated for its role in the South Asian Summer Monsoon. We have observed an elongated spatial-feature of the positive SSSAs in the southwestern Indian Ocean before the onset of the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) by using both the Aquarius satellite and the Argo float datasets. The maximum variable areas of SSSAs in the Indian Ocean are along (60 ° E–80 ° E) and symmetrical to the equator, divided into the southern and northern parts. Further, we have found that the annual variability of SSSAs changes earlier than that of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the corresponding areas, due to the change of wind stress and freshwater flux. The change of barrier layer thickness (BLT) anomalies is in phase with that of SSSAs in the southwestern Indian Ocean, which helps to sustain the warming water by prohibiting upwelling. Due to the time delay of SSSAs change between the northern and southern parts, SSSAs, therefore, take part in the seasonal process of the SASM via promoting the SSTAs gradient for the cross-equator currents.

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This study investigates the practical predictability of two simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCS1 and MCS2) within a state-of-the-art convection-allowing ensemble forecast system. The two MCSs are both controlled by the synoptic Meiyu-front but differ in mesoscale orographic forcing. An observation system simulation experiment (OSSE) setup is first built, which includes flow-dependent multiple-scale initial and lateral boundary perturbations and a 12 h 30-member ensemble forecast is thereby created. In combination with the difference total energy, the decorrelation scale and the ensemble sensitivity analysis, both forecast error evolution, precipitation uncertainties and meteorological sensitivity that describe the practical predictability are assessed. The results show large variabilities of precipitation forecasts among ensemble members, indicative of the practical predictability limit. The study of forecast error evolution shows that the error energy in the MCS1 region in which the convection is blocked by the Dabie Mountains exhibits a simultaneous peak pattern for all spatial scales at around 6 h due to strong moist convection. On the other hand, when large-scale flow plays a more important role, the forecast error energy in the MCS2 region exhibits a stepwise increase with increasing spatial scale. As a result of error energy growth, the precipitation uncertainties evolve from small scales and gradually transfer to larger scales, implying a strong relationship between error growth and precipitation across spatial scales, thus explaining the great precipitation variability within ensemble members. These results suggest the additional forcing brought by the Dabie Mountains could regulate the predictability of Meiyu-frontal convection, which calls for a targeted perturbation design in convection-allowing ensemble forecast systems with respect to different forcing mechanisms.

This Ph.D. thesis was developed with tremendous supports and helps from numerous people, without whom the thesis could have not been completed. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to all of them for making this thesis possible. First and foremost, I would like to express my heartfelt thanks to Prof. Zhongbo Su, who offered me the opportunity as a Ph.D. candidate at the Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente. It is my great honor to be one of his students and do research under his supervision. His valuable guidance and enthusiastic encouragement helped me overcome all the difficulties and challenges in my research. His positive and creative thinking guided me through both scientific research and daily life in the Netherlands. I am also very grateful for his immense support to fund my many trips to conferences and a three-month exchange at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI), where I was able to broaden my views and thoughts and kept up with the developments in my research field. I would also like to express my sincere thanks to the China Scholarship Council (CSC) for financially supporting my Ph.D. study at the University of Twente. Without the support of CSC, my Ph.D. journey may not even be possible. There are many other colleagues and friends from ITC and University of Twente, who, directly or indirectly, helped and supported me during the last six years. To them, I would like to express my sincere gratitude and appreciation. Special thanks to the secretaries, J. de Koning (Anke), E.L. Butt-Castro (Tina), L.M. Snijders-Nijkrake (Lindy) and Loes Colenbrander and the Chinese staff, Yijian Zeng, Lichun Wang, and Xuelong Chen for their friendly help and concerns. To my colleagues and friends