Relative Unemployment, Political Information, and the Job Approval Ratings of State Governors and Legislatures

Abstract

Research finds that voters benchmark the state’s unemployment level to the nation’s when holding state policy makers accountable. Yet benchmarking requires some voter knowledge if the standard is to be applied correctly as an accountability rule. This article leverages the fact that voters have more knowledge about their state governors than legislatures assess how much knowledge is necessary for holding these policy makers accountable. Using pooled Cooperative Congressional Election Study data from 2006 to 2016, results find that knowledge has stronger mediating effects for the state legislature than governor. Furthermore, despite the low knowledge levels among voters about the state legislature, collectively there appears to be enough knowledge to hold that policymaking body accountable. The conclusion offers directions for future research.

Does the Public Hold Governors Accountable for Policy Outcomes?

“…Even as studies of presidential approval strongly affirm the ties between economic performance and presidential popularity (Gronke and Newman 2003), this connection seems tenuous at the state level. While many confirm a link between state economic conditions and state executive approval (Alt, Lassen, and Skilling 2002; Cohen 2020; Cohen and King 2004; Crew et al 2002; Hansen 1999; Howell and Vanderleeuw 1990; Jacobson 2006; Orth 2001), several studies find only weak, conditional, or inconsistent evidence that governors gain approval under strong state economic conditions (Adams and Squire 2001; Crew and Weiher 1996; Larimer 2015; MacDonald and Sigelman 1999). Even factors like partisan congruence remain contested as predictors of gubernatorial approval.…”

“…Even factors like partisan congruence remain contested as predictors of gubernatorial approval. While some surveys show that co-partisans are more likely to approve of their governor (Cohen 2020; Howell and Vanderleeuw 1990; Orth 2001), others find limited evidence of partisan effects (Cohen 1983; Larimer 2015; MacDonald and Sigelman 1999).…”

“…Questions on gubernatorial approval are not common to national surveys. Among those published studies that have considered gubernatorial approval, we know of only two that look at the individual level origins of gubernatorial approval with a nationally representative survey (Brown 2010; Cohen 2020). 5 Many prior studies instead consider the origins of gubernatorial approval within only one state (Howell and Vanderleeuw 1990; Larimer 2015; Orth 2001) or a handful of states (Cohen 1983; Crew and Weiher 1996; Crew et al 2002; Hansen 1999), which limits the generalizability of findings from these studies.…”