Relevance of active faulting and seismicity studies to assessments of long-term earthquake activity and maximum magnitude in intraplate northwest Europe, between the Lower Rhine Embayment and the North Sea

Camelbeeck, Thierry; Vanneste, Krıs; Alexandre, Pierre; Verbeeck, K.; Petermans, T.; Rosset, Philippe; Everaerts, Michel; Warnant, René; Camp, Michel Van

doi:10.1130/2007.2425(14)

Cited by 58 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…In case of paleoseismological findings (e.g. Camelbeeck et al 2007;Ferry et al 2005;Brandes and Winsemann 2013), their magnitudes are used for the lower truncation. The upper truncation of the distribution function is based on increments added to the maximum historically observed M w , which are dependent on the level of seismic activity of five different tectonic terranes, where we distinguish (with the increments in parentheses): non-extended (1.3), extended (1.3), magmatically active extended (1.3), Alpidic A with the external, central and eastern Alps (0.8) and Alpidic B with the internal Alps and the southerly adjacent Po Plain (0.7); see also Table 2.…”

Section: Maximum Magnitudes M Maxmentioning

confidence: 99%

The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability

Grünthal

Stromeyer

Bosse

et al. 2018

Bull Earthquake Eng

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The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This 2016 version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties, and a selection of the latest generation of ground motion prediction equations. The new earthquake model is presented here, which consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed for a realistic approach. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of v S30 = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02-3 s, and seismic hazard maps for peak

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Section: Maximum Magnitudes M Maxmentioning

confidence: 99%

The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability

Grünthal

Stromeyer

Bosse

et al. 2018

Bull Earthquake Eng

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“…The Lower Rhine Embayment is a young sedimentary basin with typical intraplate seismicity (Camelbeeck et al 2007;Hinzen and Reamer 2007). The strongest instrumentally recorded earthquake in 1992 had a M W 5.4.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The strongest instrumentally recorded earthquake in 1992 had a M W 5.4. Historical seismicity includes stronger events like the 1756 Düren earthquake (M S 5 ¾ (Camelbeeck et al 2007)) and the 1692 Verviers earthquake (M S 6 ¼ , (Camelbeeck et al 2007)). In such a situation where larger earthquakes are rare, any information about former damaging earthquakes is of crucial importance for hazard evaluations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Instrumentally observed earthquakes in the LRE include the 1992 M W 5.4 Roermond earthquake (Camelbeeck et al 1994). The strongest historically documented earthquake in the area is the 1692 Vervier earthquake west of the LRE with an estimated magnitude of M S 6 ¼ (Camelbeeck et al 2007;Alexandre et al 2008). A Gutenberg-Richter seismicity model of the area predicts an occurrence of 8.65×10…”

Section: Tectonic and Seismicitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Archeoseismic study of damage in Roman and Medieval structures in the center of Cologne, Germany

et al. 2012

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The causes of damage observed in archeological records or preserved monuments are often difficult to be determined unequivocally, particularly when the possibility of secondary earthquake damage exists. Such secondary damage has been previously proposed for the Roman Praetorium, the governor's palace in the center of Cologne. Ongoing excavations since 2007 revealed additional damage. The existing ground that has been uncovered and documented extends the affected area to 175×180 m. We present a comprehensive virtual model of the excavation area based on 200 3D laserscans together with a systematic analysis of the damage patterns and an improved model of the terrain during Roman/Medieval times including geotechnical parameters of the subsurface. Five locations with different damage patterns, including a Roman sewer, the octagonal central part of the Praetorium, a section with strongly inclined massive walls, a 13 m deep deformed well, a collapsed hypocaust, and damages in the Medieval mikveh are analyzed in detail. We use site-specific synthetic strong ground motion seismograms to test the possibility of earthquake-induced ground failures as a cause for the observed damage. This subsurface model is also used to test the possibility of hydraulically-induced damages by seepage and erosion of fine-grained material from stray sand. Heavy rainstorms can induce a direct stream of surface water through the fine sand layers to the ground water table. Simulated ground motion for assumed worst-case earthquake scenarios do not provoke slope instability at the level necessary to explain the structural damages.

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“…Historical and instrumental seismicity is based on the CENEC catalogue by Grünthal et al (2009). Palaeoseismological study sites are compiled from Camelbeeck and Meghraoui (1998), Camelbeeck et al (2000), Camelbeeck et al (2007), Meghraoui et al (2001), , Van den Berg et al (2002), Peters et al (2005) and Štepancíková et al (2010). Labels indicate the magnitudes of the largest palaeoearthquakes observed at the respective site.…”

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confidence: 99%

Implications from palaeoseismological investigations at the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (Vienna Basin, Austria) for seismic hazard assessment

Hintersberger

Decker

Lomax

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Intraplate regions characterized by low rates of seismicity are challenging for seismic hazard assessment, mainly for two reasons. Firstly, evaluation of historic earthquake catalogues may not reveal all active faults that contribute to regional seismic hazard. Secondly, slip rate determination is limited by sparse geomorphic preservation of slowly moving faults. In the Vienna Basin (Austria), moderate historical seismicity (I max,obs /M max,obs = 8/5.2) concentrates along the left-lateral strike-slip Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF). In contrast, several normal faults branching out from the VBTF show neither historical nor instrumental earthquake records, although geomorphological data indicate Quaternary displacement along those faults. Here, located about 15 km outside of Vienna, the Austrian capital, we present a palaeoseismological dataset of three trenches that cross one of these splay faults, the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (MF), in order to evaluate its seismic potential. Comparing the observations of the different trenches, we found evidence for five to six surface-breaking earthquakes during the last 120 kyr, with the youngest event occurring at around 14 ka. The derived surface displacements lead to magnitude estimates ranging between 6.2±0.5 and 6.8±0.4. Data can be interpreted by two possible slip models, with slip model 1 showing more regular recurrence intervals of about 20-25 kyr between the earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5 and slip model 2 indicating that such earthquakes cluster in two time intervals in the last 120 kyr. Direct correlation between trenches favours slip model 2 as the more plausible option. Trench observations also show that structural and sedimentological records of strong earthquakes with small surface offset have only low preservation potential. Therefore, the earthquake frequency for magnitudes between 6 and 6.5 cannot be constrained by the trenching records. Vertical slip rates of 0.02-0.05 mm a −1 derived from the trenches compare well to geomorphically derived slip rates of 0.02-0.09 mm a −1 . Magnitude estimates from fault dimensions suggest that the largest earthquakes observed in the trenches activated the entire fault surface of the MF including the basal detachment that links the normal fault with the VBTF. The most important implications of these palaeoseismological results for seismic hazard assessment are as follows. (1) The MF is an active seismic source, capable of rupturing the surface despite the lack of historical earthquakes. (2) The MF is kinematically and geologically equivalent to a number of other splay faults of the VBTF. It is reasonable to assume that these faults are potential sources of large earthquakes as well. The frequency of strong earthquakes near Vienna is therefore expected to be significantly higher than the earthquake frequency reconstructed for the MF alone. (3) Although rare events, the potential for earthquake magnitudes equal or greater than M = 7.0 in the Vienna Basin should be considered in seismic hazard studies.

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Relevance of active faulting and seismicity studies to assessments of long-term earthquake activity and maximum magnitude in intraplate northwest Europe, between the Lower Rhine Embayment and the North Sea

Cited by 58 publications

References 47 publications

The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability

The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability

Archeoseismic study of damage in Roman and Medieval structures in the center of Cologne, Germany

Implications from palaeoseismological investigations at the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (Vienna Basin, Austria) for seismic hazard assessment

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