Abstract. Drilled shafts are, typically, designed by considering the axial ultimate limit state. In this design methodology, the axial displacement requirements are verified once the design is completed. As an alternative, drilled shafts may be designed by considering the axial service limit state. Service limit state foundation design is more efficient when done using the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) approach. Furthermore, reliability may be rationally incorporated into the design process that utilizes the LRFD method. In this paper, we develop probabilistic approaches for axial service limit state analysis of drilled shafts. The variability of shaft-soil interface properties is modeled by lognormal probability distribution functions. The probability distributions are combined with a closed-form analytical relationship of axial loaddisplacement curves for drilled shafts. The closed-form analytical relationship is derived based upon the ''t-z'' approach. This analytical relationship is used with the Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain probabilistic load-displacement curves, which are analyzed to develop methods for determining the probability of drilled shaft failure at the service limit state. The developed method may be utilized to obtain resistance factors that can be applied to LRFD based service limit state design.Key words. drilled shaft, failure probability, load-displacement relation, serviceability.Notation: D: drilled shaft diameter, mm; dP/du: drilled shaft initial stiffness, kN/m; E s : soil elastic modulus, kN/m 2 ; K: shear modulus of shaft-soil interface, kN/m 2 ; K c : axial stiffness of debond zone, MN; K m : drilled shaft axial stiffness, MN; K t : drilled shaft tip soil stiffness, kN/m; L b : shaft interaction zone length, m; L d : shaft noninteraction length, m; P: drilled shaft load, kN; P t : drilled shaft tip resistance force, kN; P u : drilled shaft ultimate pullout capacity, kN; q: shear force per unit length, kN/m; q o : yield strength of shaft-soil interface, kN/m; u: displacement, mm; u o : interface displacement at yield, mm; u t : tip displacement, mm; " u: deformation at top of drilled shaft, mm; U: non-dimensional displacement; " u: non-dimensional displacement at top of interaction zone; x: location along the drilled shaft length; a: normalizing factor, cm; j: non-dimensional factor; k: scaling factor; l s : tip soil Poisson's ratio; s u : ultimate shear strength of shaft-soil interface, kN/m 2 ; n: nondimensional length; n o : location of transition point.