Reliability of Cargo Transportation as the Main Objective Function of Cargo Transportation by Water Transport Under the Conditions of Military Risks

Abstract

Topicality. Traditionally, routes were chosen based on the principle of the shortest logistical arm. But in the conditions of war, the impact of military risks and the dynamic nature of their change becomes much greater than the combined impact of other risks. This necessitates the use of reliability as the main objective function of transportation, a radical change in approaches to the rational selection of the most appropriate transportation options, and, in the event of a growing threat, the rapid change of the next stages of the cargo transportation route, even if the previous stages of the transportation route have already been completed.Aim and tasks. The aim of the work is the development of mathematical model for assessing the reliability of water transportation under military threats and the development of an algorithm for a decision-making support system for neutralizing the impact of threats to transportation. Achieving the goal of the research made it necessary to set and solve the following tasks: carry out a mathematical formalization of the problem and identify parameters of influence on the integral function of reliability; analyze the impact parameters and determine the most significant of them; to develop an algorithm for a decision-making support system for neutralizing the impact of threats to transportation; to determine effective ways of neutralizing threats.
 Materials and methods. Various methods were used in the work: content analysis to establish that the target reliability function can be calculated based on various features; comparative analysis to identify such features; mathematical formalization for the formation of a transportation reliability assessment model and the development of a decision-making support system algorithm for neutralizing the impact of threats to transportation; a steep ascent to choose the most expedient transportation options and, in the event of an increased threat, an alternative route option.Research results. A mathematical model for assessing the reliability of water transportation under military threats was developed and an algorithm for the decision-making support system was formed to neutralize the impact of threats to cargo transportation. For this solution, the following tasks were performed: mathematical formalization of the problem was carried out and parameters of influence on the reliability function were selected; influence parameters were analyzed and the most significant of them was determined; the algorithm of the decision-making support system for neutralizing the impact of threats to transportation was developed; defined ways of neutralizing threats.Conclusion. It is indicated that the risks associated with the aggression of the russian federation are absorbing in relation to all other risks. It has been established that due to the dynamic changes in the risks of cargo transportation in the conditions of war, the task arises not only of identifying the magnitude of the risk, but also its rate of change, because identifying the rate of risks change makes it possible to forecast it. It was established that during military operations, the function of reliability becomes the main target function of managing the transportation of goods by water transport. It was established that in the time preceding large-scale hostilities, the main risk is the time of forced delay of ships, therefore the reliability water transportation integral function of goods is inversely proportional to the time of ships delay. Using the developed model, the value of the reliability function and its changes in January 2022 were determined.

Mathematical Modeling of the Reliability of Mixed Cargo Transportation Under Dynamic Change of Conditions

“…Conclusions and perspectives of further research. The presented work is a continuation of the study (Kotenko, 2022), which provides calculations of the reliability of cargo transportation through the ports of the Sea of Azov in 2018-2022 before the start of large-scale military operations.…”

“…Chekalovets, I. O. Tkachenko etc. The problem of risk management was studied by scientists: Goerlandt, 2015;Ilchenko, 2017;Karpenko, 2018;Tarashevskyi, 2020;Zahorodnia, 2021;Xiong, 2014;Wassan, 2008. During the last time, they devoted their scientific works to the problems of modeling mixed transportation Charoennapharat, 2022;Hryhorak, 2020;Chang, 2019;Nguyen, 2020. Including dynamic changes in risks: Bazaluk, 2021;Aulin, 2020;Kotenko, 2022. In the presented work, the results of calculations of the reliability of cargo transportation through the ports of the Sea of Azov in 2018-2022 before the start of large-scale military operations were used, provided in the work (Kotenko, 2022).…”

“…The proposed algorithm was tested for the optimization of cargo transportation on the example of oil enterprises in the east of the country. Due to the significant volume of exports in 2019, the export possibilities of transporting the company's products through the ports of the Sea of Azov were limited due to a significant increase in the risk of vessel delays when passing through the Kerch Strait -the level of integral risk along this route varied from to (Kotenko, 2022). For the transportation of products in some areas, for example, the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions, rail transportation of goods for enterprises was one of the options for the implementation of the transport process, but with a higher level of risk than for transportation by water transport in water areas that were not threatened by the aggressor.…”