Topicality. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that in the current crisis, which causes significant changes even in traditional economic activities, there are new factors of influence, there are multicollinear groups of factors that increase each other's influence, and these trends are not yet sufficiently disclosed in scientific literature. Therefore, there is an extremely important task, not related to the traditional assessment of the weight of the influence of known factors, but the identification of new factors, finding out the tendency to correlate the influence of two or more factors. This can be critical in making relevant predictions. Aim and tasks. The main purpose of the study is to develop mathematical methods for detection both identified and unidentified at the entrance to the problem factors influencing the competitiveness of water transport. To achieve this goal, the following tasks arose: development of a mathematical formalization of the separation of aperiodic and background effects on the resulting function; creation of formal approaches to the processing of primary data and results obtained using the developed mathematical model to reduce relative error and obtain relevant results. Research results Theoretical and applied provisions of increase of efficiency of cargo transportations by water transport taking into account factors of its competitiveness are investigated. In contrast to traditional approaches, which are based on a previously identified set of factors influencing the resulting function, the task of the study was to develop mathematical methods for detection both identified and unidentified factors influencing the competitiveness of water transport by its types. For this purpose, the original modification of the time series method was used. Using the developed mathematical model, the analysis of volumes of cargo transportation by water transport by its types is carried out. Additional methodological tools were used to adjust the forecast values for the next period of time. The use of the developed approaches indicated their practical value for leveling the background effects of external factors and aperiodic harmonics, which allowed to linearize the study time series, identify groups of influencing factors and specify the most important factors that allow to use the competitive advantages of water transport in Ukraine.Conclusion. Analysis of the results of the study allows us to draw the following conclusions: the presented mathematical model and the proposed methods of formalization allow us to develop using time series and available in the primary data of background and aperiodic harmonics relevant forecast data; the introduction of the developed mathematical model will reveal the impact on the resulting function of the efficiency of freight transportation of factors not identified in the problem. (возможно лучше такой вариант перевода Analysis of the results of the study allows us to draw the following conclusions: the presented mathematical model and the proposed methods of formalization allow us to develop using time series and available in the primary data of background and aperiodic harmonics relevant forecast data; introduction of the developed mathematical model will allow to reveal influence on the resulting function of efficiency of cargo transportation of the factors which have not been identified at statement of a problem.This will provide relevant forecast data for future periods, effectively promote the implementation of measures to use competitive advantages and neutralize threats.

Topicality. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the growing dynamics of marine pollution and power and uneven information flows that accompany the pollution process. This requires the creation of an information-analytical system to support decision-making on effective pollution prevention and elimination. And the creation of such a system, in turn, requires research on the theoretical and applied principles of its formation. Aim and tasks. The main purpose of the study is the development of theoretical and applied provisions on the peculiarities of the formation of information and analytical support of the marine environment from pollution and development of system approaches and mathematical apparatus for designing information transmission channels and ensuring efficient Traffic Engineering. Research results. Theoretical and applied bases of formation of information-analytical maintenance of protection of the marine environment from pollution by ships are investigated. Peculiarities of formation, first of all, connected with the existing branched normative-legal base of protection of water area from pollution are revealed. The mechanisms of pollution and their inherent characteristics of information flows are identified, which requires the use of methods Traffic Engineering. Mathematical formalization is proposed for efficient design of information transmission channels and ensuring efficient Traffic Engineering. An approach to assessing the effectiveness of the information transfer process and as the main criterion in Traffic Engineering for ISMP - resource utilization factor. The algorithm before the design check of the bandwidth of the information system routes under the dynamic variant of information processing is formalized. Conclusion. The presented article investigates the theoretical and applied aspects of the formation of a single information and analytical support for the protection of the marine environment, in particular, those features that are due to the existing regulatory framework and existing pollution mechanisms. A mathematical apparatus for designing information transmission channels and ensuring efficient Traffic Engineering. An approach to assessing the effectiveness of the information transfer process and as the main criterion in the method is proposed Traffic Engineering for ISMP - resource utilization factor. The algorithm before the design check of the bandwidth of the information system routes under the dynamic variant of information processing is formalized. All this allows creating the necessary conditions for the formation of a single information and analytical support for the protection of the marine environment.

Purpose. The study is aimed at optimizing and reducing delays in crisis situations in the operation of decision support systems to eliminate the consequences of pollution of water areas. Methodology. The presented study uses the fundamental provisions of modern science to find the optimal solution in crisis situations. Methods of abstraction and mathematical formalization were used to solve the problem of minimizing the delay time of information packets in providing critical information in conditions of overloading information channels. Findings. It has been proven that a decrease in the volume of losses is possible in the case of effective management of the elimination of pollution, prompt minimization of its consequences. It has been established that the effectiveness of management to minimize the consequences of an accident is determined by the effectiveness of the information system, and largely depends not only on relevant information, but also on the timeliness of its receipt by the subject of decision-making. A mathematical model and an algorithm for optimizing information flows have been created, which provide minimal delays in obtaining information even under conditions of extreme load of the information system. It has been proven that the task of effective management of an information system can be reduced to minimizing the delay in the provision of critical information. As a result of the study, it was found that for a large information system, which includes more than forty subunits and satellite systems, the use of the proposed approach provides a decrease in the response delay to an information request of time, which does not exceed a minute. Originality. To prevent delays in the operation of the information management system for the elimination of pollution of water areas, a scientific and applied approach to optimize the information system is proposed, which uses the theory of graphs and Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm and implements effective management of information flow. A mathematical model and an original algorithm have been developed that allow reducing delays in work and providing a resource utilization factor better than the existing analogues. Practical value. The presented approach will make it possible to increase the efficiency and reliability of information systems for managing technogenic pressure on water areas in crisis situations, reduce the time for providing the necessary information and, thereby, reduce the consequences of pollution and the costs associated with their neutralization. The data obtained in the course of the study are approximated by a polynomial equation, making it possible to evaluate the effectiveness of using the proposed method depending on the number of nodes of the information system and the requirements for limiting the delay time of information.

Topicality. Traditionally, routes were chosen based on the principle of the shortest logistical arm. But in the conditions of war, the impact of military risks and the dynamic nature of their change becomes much greater than the combined impact of other risks. This necessitates the use of reliability as the main objective function of transportation, a radical change in approaches to the rational selection of the most appropriate transportation options, and, in the event of a growing threat, the rapid change of the next stages of the cargo transportation route, even if the previous stages of the transportation route have already been completed.Aim and tasks. The aim of the work is the development of mathematical model for assessing the reliability of water transportation under military threats and the development of an algorithm for a decision-making support system for neutralizing the impact of threats to transportation. Achieving the goal of the research made it necessary to set and solve the following tasks: carry out a mathematical formalization of the problem and identify parameters of influence on the integral function of reliability; analyze the impact parameters and determine the most significant of them; to develop an algorithm for a decision-making support system for neutralizing the impact of threats to transportation; to determine effective ways of neutralizing threats. Materials and methods. Various methods were used in the work: content analysis to establish that the target reliability function can be calculated based on various features; comparative analysis to identify such features; mathematical formalization for the formation of a transportation reliability assessment model and the development of a decision-making support system algorithm for neutralizing the impact of threats to transportation; a steep ascent to choose the most expedient transportation options and, in the event of an increased threat, an alternative route option.Research results. A mathematical model for assessing the reliability of water transportation under military threats was developed and an algorithm for the decision-making support system was formed to neutralize the impact of threats to cargo transportation. For this solution, the following tasks were performed: mathematical formalization of the problem was carried out and parameters of influence on the reliability function were selected; influence parameters were analyzed and the most significant of them was determined; the algorithm of the decision-making support system for neutralizing the impact of threats to transportation was developed; defined ways of neutralizing threats.Conclusion. It is indicated that the risks associated with the aggression of the russian federation are absorbing in relation to all other risks. It has been established that due to the dynamic changes in the risks of cargo transportation in the conditions of war, the task arises not only of identifying the magnitude of the risk, but also its rate of change, because identifying the rate of risks change makes it possible to forecast it. It was established that during military operations, the function of reliability becomes the main target function of managing the transportation of goods by water transport. It was established that in the time preceding large-scale hostilities, the main risk is the time of forced delay of ships, therefore the reliability water transportation integral function of goods is inversely proportional to the time of ships delay. Using the developed model, the value of the reliability function and its changes in January 2022 were determined.

Topicality. Military threats determined the significant pace of changes in the risks of mixed cargoes transportation and proved the need for new methods of ensuring the reliability of transportation. First of all, there was the problem of assessing the levels of transportation reliability along individual routes and modeling a possible change of routes with the choice of safer options and ways of transportation. A particularly important function of such a model, due to the rapid pace of changes in risks, is the possibility of its practical application in real-time conditions.Aim and tasks. The purpose of the work is to develop a mathematical model of mixed cargo transportation in the conditions of dynamic changes in risks to increase the reliability of the transportation process, analyze alternative options for transportation, and identify opportunities for changing the route even in the process of cargo transportation. Achieving the goal of the study made it necessary to set and solve the following tasks: to implement the possibility of analyzing alternative transportation options and proposing route changes in real time; prove the capabilities of the developed model on the example of specific enterprises; to ensure reliability forecasting of the next cargo transportation stages; implement the possibility of optimizing multi-purpose tasks to ensure reliability, minimize the cost and time of transportation; to stratify the reliability of cargo transportation according to the level of threats probability. Materials and methods. Various general and special methods of knowledge were used in the work: the method of quantitative and qualitative comparison for the stratification of the cargo transportation reliability depending on the risks at individual stages; methods of vector analysis to take into account the probability of the cargo transportation risk at each stage of mixed transportation; the method of induction and deduction made it possible to consider the reliability of the transportation as the reciprocal of the transportation risk probability; the task fragmentation method allows to include probable stages of transportation in different transport routes; a method of mathematical formalization of the problem for the formation of a model of mixed cargo transportation using water transport in conditions of dynamic changes in risks. Research results. A mathematical model of mixed cargo transportation in conditions of dynamic changes in risks was developed to increase the reliability of transportation, analyze alternative transportation options, and identify opportunities for changing the route during cargo transportation. To solve this, the following tasks were developed: a mathematical model capable of analyzing alternative transportation options and proposing route changes in real life was developed; proven possibilities of the model on the example of specific enterprises; forecasting of the reliability the next cargo transportation stages is ensured; the possibility of optimizing multi-purpose tasks to ensure reliability, minimizing the cost and time of transportation has been implemented; stratification of the reliability cargo transportation by the level of probability threats was carried out. Conclusion. Using the model, the activities of enterprises that transported their products through the ports of the Sea of Azov were analyzed. Due to the decrease in the reliability of cargo transportation through the Kerch Strait, alternative routes for the transportation of mixed cargo are proposed, for the use of "river-sea" vessels at certain stages. Approbation of the model for increasing the efficiency of the transport and logistics process of enterprises proved its effectiveness. The use of the developed mathematical model for the analysis of enterprise activity indicated an implicit advantage of increasing the level of transportation reliability, in particular, in relation to identifying the possibility of reducing warehouse stocks with a significant saving of working capital at the same time. The presented results of the research make it possible to ensure the proper reliability of transportation of mixed cargoes, even in conditions of significant dynamic changes in the level of threats on transportation routes.