It is established that under anticipatory management of industrial enterprises it is expedient to prevent the development of anticrisis strategies for counteracting the most probable crises for an industrial enterprise. At the same time, the main question is to determine when it is necessary to intensify these preventive anticrisis development strategies. To solve this problem, a scientific and methodical approach has been developed to intensify anticrisis strategies for the development of an industrial enterprise on the basis of weak signals, based on the use of a model for estimating the proximity of an industrial enterprise to a crisis state, and which provides for the preventive adaptation of an industrial enterprise to abrupt changes in the environment or changes in the development trajectory enterprises. It makes possible to assess the stability of the trajectory of development of the industrial enterprise at a specific time, and, accordingly, to carry out anticipatory management of the development of the industrial enterprise.

Topicality. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that in the current crisis, which causes significant changes even in traditional economic activities, there are new factors of influence, there are multicollinear groups of factors that increase each other's influence, and these trends are not yet sufficiently disclosed in scientific literature. Therefore, there is an extremely important task, not related to the traditional assessment of the weight of the influence of known factors, but the identification of new factors, finding out the tendency to correlate the influence of two or more factors. This can be critical in making relevant predictions. Aim and tasks. The main purpose of the study is to develop mathematical methods for detection both identified and unidentified at the entrance to the problem factors influencing the competitiveness of water transport. To achieve this goal, the following tasks arose: development of a mathematical formalization of the separation of aperiodic and background effects on the resulting function; creation of formal approaches to the processing of primary data and results obtained using the developed mathematical model to reduce relative error and obtain relevant results. Research results Theoretical and applied provisions of increase of efficiency of cargo transportations by water transport taking into account factors of its competitiveness are investigated. In contrast to traditional approaches, which are based on a previously identified set of factors influencing the resulting function, the task of the study was to develop mathematical methods for detection both identified and unidentified factors influencing the competitiveness of water transport by its types. For this purpose, the original modification of the time series method was used. Using the developed mathematical model, the analysis of volumes of cargo transportation by water transport by its types is carried out. Additional methodological tools were used to adjust the forecast values for the next period of time. The use of the developed approaches indicated their practical value for leveling the background effects of external factors and aperiodic harmonics, which allowed to linearize the study time series, identify groups of influencing factors and specify the most important factors that allow to use the competitive advantages of water transport in Ukraine.Conclusion. Analysis of the results of the study allows us to draw the following conclusions: the presented mathematical model and the proposed methods of formalization allow us to develop using time series and available in the primary data of background and aperiodic harmonics relevant forecast data; the introduction of the developed mathematical model will reveal the impact on the resulting function of the efficiency of freight transportation of factors not identified in the problem. (возможно лучше такой вариант перевода Analysis of the results of the study allows us to draw the following conclusions: the presented mathematical model and the proposed methods of formalization allow us to develop using time series and available in the primary data of background and aperiodic harmonics relevant forecast data; introduction of the developed mathematical model will allow to reveal influence on the resulting function of efficiency of cargo transportation of the factors which have not been identified at statement of a problem.This will provide relevant forecast data for future periods, effectively promote the implementation of measures to use competitive advantages and neutralize threats.

In the paper based on research and generalization of many separate scientific studies, the content of the concepts of «competition» and «competitiveness of the enterprise» is formed. The actuality of the problems of competition and loss of competitiveness of enterprises in the conditions of deepening and spreading of consequences of economic crises, which suppress practically all branches of industry and economy of Ukraine, is revealed. The views on the interpretation of the concepts of adaptation and adaptive management by industrial enterprises are analysed and summarized, and the necessity for modern enterprises to apply different methods of adaptation in management processes is grounded. The concept of formation of competitive advantages of the enterprise on the principles of adaptive management is proposed, based on the complex dynamic approach, the interrelation of the principles of adaptability, flexibility, efficiency, interconnection, adequacy and controllability with the possibility of development of competitive advantages of the enterprise is investigated. The task of the concept corresponds to the application of adaptive integrated systems; system planning in the industry and adaptive regulation system; development of expected indicators of competitive advantages of the enterprise and deviations from them; modelling adaptive response to changes in the real economic system. This concept allows the process of managing the competitive advantages with the maximum efficiency due to the sensitive response both to external unpredictable changes in the industry and internal potential changes in the enterprise. An analysis of the current dynamic conditions of the functioning of industrial enterprises has been carried out, a number of external and internal problems have been identified, including unfavourable investment climate, the need to match the achievements of scientific and technological progress (with the widespread introduction of advanced technologies) and the lack of a management strategy in changing market conditions. It is proved that for industrial enterprises, the application of the principles of adaptive control as a competitive advantage is a decisive factor in achieving their sustainable competitiveness in the market of fuel energy, which is one of the strategic tasks of creating an effective system of management at enterprises that would provide them stable.

The paper will investigate the impact of the vehicle carrying capacity to which the local tax is applied on forming the cost of delivery. The cost of 1 ton of freight under different tax scenarios is estimated in the paper: without tax 0, with fixed tax – 10% and with progressive tax from 0 to 75%. The greatest effect on reducing the vehicle's load capacity during urban deliveries showed a progressive tax. The developed regression model allows determining the cost of transportation of 1 ton of goods depending on the technological parameters of transport operations, the costs of the transport (logistics) operators to perform these operations, and local tax regulations for transport. The application of the model makes it possible to regulate the use of vehicles of a given capacity by the local administration. In contrast to the strict prohibition on the establishment of traffic signs, the use of a progressive tax by the local administration makes it possible to regulate traffic structure by economic methods. Exploring of influence local tax regulations on transportation will lead to the sustainability of the cities in order to provide GREEN technologies.