Reliability Theory of Aging and Longevity

Gavrilov, Leonid A.; Gavrilova, Natalia S.

doi:10.1016/b978-012088387-5/50004-2

Cited by 168 publications

(281 citation statements)

References 125 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

268

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…In some species a mortality plateau can occupy a sizable part of their life (Carey et al 1992; Gavrilov and Gavrilova 2006). Biologists have been aware of mortality leveling off since the 1960s.…”

Section: Mortality At Advanced Ages: a Historical Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the 1990s, the phenomenon of mortality deceleration and leveling off became widely known after publications that demonstrated mortality leveling off in large samples of Drosophila melanogaster (Curtsinger et al 1992, 2006) and medflies ( Ceratitis capitata ) (Carey et al 1992). Mortality plateaus at advanced ages are observed for other insects: housefly ( Musca vicina ), blow-fly ( Calliphora erythrocephala ) (Gavrilov 1980), housefly ( Musca domestica ) (Gavrilov and Gavrilova 2006), fruit flies ( Anastrepha ludens, Anastrepha obliqua, Anastrepha serpentine ), parasitoid wasp ( Diachasmimorpha longiacaudtis ) (Vaupel et al 1998), and bruchid beetle ( Callosobruchus maculates ) (Tatar et al 1993). Interestingly, the failure kinetics of manufactured products (steel samples, industrial relays, and motor heat insulators) also demonstrates the same “nonaging” pattern at the end of their “lifespan” (Economos 1979).…”

Section: Mortality At Advanced Ages: a Historical Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another explanation of this phenomenon comes from the reliability theory of aging, which explains mortality leveling off by an exhaustion of an organism’s redundancy (reserves) at extremely old ages so that every random hit results in death (Gavrilov and Gavrilova 1991, 2001, 2006). There is also an opinion that lower risks of death for older people are due to their less risky behavior (Greenwood and Irwin 1939).…”

Section: Mortality At Advanced Ages: a Historical Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages

Gavrilov

Gavrilova

2011

North American Actuarial Journal

Self Cite

124

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Accurate estimates of mortality at advanced ages are essential to improving forecasts of mortality and the population size of the oldest old age group. However, estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: (1) The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality (heterogeneity effect); (2) standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages and (3) ages of very old people may be exaggerated. One way of obtaining estimates of mortality at extreme ages is to pool together international records of persons surviving to extreme ages with subsequent efforts of strict age validation. This approach helps researchers to resolve the third of the above-mentioned problems but does not resolve the first two problems because of inevitable data heterogeneity when data for people belonging to different birth cohorts and countries are pooled together. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow (monthly) age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation are elaborated. This approach is based on data from the Social Security Administration Death Master File (DMF). Some birth cohorts covered by DMF could be studied by the method of extinct generations. Availability of month of birth and month of death information provides a unique opportunity to obtain hazard rate estimates for every month of age. Study of several single-year extinct birth cohorts shows that mortality trajectory at advanced ages follows the Gompertz law up to the ages 102–105 years without a noticeable deceleration. Earlier reports of mortality deceleration (deviation of mortality from the Gompertz law) at ages below 100 appear to be artifacts of mixing together several birth cohorts with different mortality levels and using cross-sectional instead of cohort data. Age exaggeration and crude assumptions applied to mortality estimates at advanced ages may also contribute to mortality underestimation at very advanced ages.

show abstract

Section: Mortality At Advanced Ages: a Historical Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mortality At Advanced Ages: a Historical Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mortality At Advanced Ages: a Historical Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages

Gavrilov

Gavrilova

2011

North American Actuarial Journal

Self Cite

124

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Biologically, aging can be seen as a complex process occurring stochastically in organs and tissues after reaching adulthood (and mainly after reproductive maturity), which results in irreversible damage accumulation and vulnerability to the failures in maintaining the integrity of tissues and organs [33,34]. A particularly fruitful approach is to consider aging-related events of interest as failures in components of a biological system [35]. An exponential increase of incidence with age means that the intensity of failures is constant (as the probability of failure is constant in time, the cumulative probability of failure is exponential).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Utilization of routinely collected administrative data in monitoring the incidence of aging dependent hip fracture

Sund

2007

Epidemiol Perspect Innov

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Societies are facing challenges as the public health burden increases in tandem with population aging. Local information systems are needed that would allow a continuous monitoring of the incidence and effectiveness of treatments. This study investigates the possibilities of routinely collected administrative data as a data source for hip fracture incidence monitoring in Finland.The study demonstrates that a straightforward use of register data results in biased estimates for the numbers of hip fractures. An interpretation of hip fractures from the population aging point of view offers an alternative perspective for hip fracture incidence calculation. This enables development of a generalizable method for probabilistic detection of starting points of hip fracture care episodes. Several risk factor and risk population extraction techniques required in registerbased data analyses are also demonstrated. Finally, it is shown that empirical evidence suggests that hip fracture incidence is proportional to population level disability prevalence.In conclusion, Finnish administrative data makes it possible to derive data for rather detailed population level risk factor stratification. Certain limitations of register-based data can be partly avoided by synthesizing data-sensitive methodological solutions during the analysis process.

show abstract

“…In the rest of the text, SAI will identify with Mutual Information MI. Using concept from Reliability Theory (For review: Gavrilov and Gavrilova, 2001), Bastien (2006) demonstrate that, in the asymptotic limit of long sequences or high pairwise score, the Karlin-Altschul formula can be rewritten…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simple Derivation of the Distribution of Pairwise Local Protein Sequence Alignment Scores

Bastien

2008

Evol Bioinform Online

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Confidence in pairwise alignments of biological sequences, obtained by various methods such as Blast or Smith-Waterman, is critical for automatic analyses of genomic data. In the asymptotic limit of long sequences, the Karlin-Altschul model computes a P-value assuming that the number of high scoring matching regions above a threshold is Poisson distributed. Using a simple approach combined with recent results in reliability theory, we demonstrate here that the Karlin-Altshul model can be derived with no reference to the extreme events theory.Sequences were considered as systems in which components are amino acids and having a high redundancy of Information reflected by their alignment scores. Evolution of the information shared between aligned components determined the Shared Amount of Information (SA.I.) between sequences, i.e. the score. The Gumbel distribution parameters of aligned sequences scores find here some theoretical rationale. The first is the Hazard Rate of the distribution of scores between residues and the second is the probability that two aligned residues do not lose bits of information (i.e. conserve an initial pairing score) when a mutation occurs.

show abstract

Reliability Theory of Aging and Longevity

Cited by 168 publications

References 125 publications

Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages

Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages

Utilization of routinely collected administrative data in monitoring the incidence of aging dependent hip fracture

A Simple Derivation of the Distribution of Pairwise Local Protein Sequence Alignment Scores

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About