Remote forcing contribution to storm‐induced sea level rise during Hurricane Dennis

Abstract

[1] Numerical model experiments are conducted to address the previously unexplained anomalously high storm surge along the Florida coast of Apalachee Bay during Hurricane Dennis (2005). The 2 -3 m surge observed during this storm cannot be obviously explained by the relatively weak local winds over this bay 275 km east of the storm center. Realistic and idealized numerical experiments demonstrate that the along-shore winds to the east of the storm center built a high sea level anomaly along the coast which traveled northward to Apalachee Bay as a topographic Rossby wave. The wave was amplified as the storm moved nearly parallel to the shelf and at comparable speed to the wave phase speed. These results suggest that enlarging the domain of the storm surge forecasting models can improve the surge forecast for a storm moving along a similar track, and have now been applied to operational use.

A decadally-resolved paleohurricane record archived in the late Holocene sediments of a Florida sinkhole

“…The surge from Hurricane Dennis was modeled to be between 0.9 and 1.6 meters at Bald Point. However, the model underestimated the actual storm tide from Hurricane Dennis, which was observed to be 2 -3 m in western Apalachee Bay (Morey et al 2006) (Figure 5c). The discrepancy between modeled and observed flooding magnitudes likely arose from uncertainties in the SLOSH model input.…”

“…Such waves can contribute significantly to the overall surge along this coastline. Hurricane Dennis in 2005 generated a coastally-trapped wave, and the operational use of the spatially-limited Apalachicola Basin to forecast the anticipated surge led to a dramatic underprediction of the coastal flooding in Apalachee Bay (Morey et al 2006). The Cedar Key basin includes more of the coastal shelf and, thus, can better simulate trapped coastal waves when they occur; however, this basin has lower spatial resolution at Bald Point.…”

Grey swan tropical cyclones

“…Introduction comparable speed to the wave phase speed 32 . This geophysical feature makes Tampa Bay even 123 more susceptible to storm surge.…”

Remotely Sensed Winds and Wind Stresses for Marine Forecasting and Ocean Modeling

“…Assimilation of observed winds improves the quality of the storm size and position of the model forecast. Furthermore, winds from the recent past can be very important for surge due to non-local processes [79].…”

“…Satellite-based sampling density and relatively good accuracy make satellite winds desirable data (particularly for regions with sparse in situ observations) for many related applications such as coastal upwelling, oceanic/atmospheric coupling associated with both tropical instability wave and ocean fronts [19], ocean currents [58], detection of tropical disturbances [35], wave forecasting, weather forecasting [46], and storm surge [79], to list a small sample of applications. Portions of the surface winds observing systems are also used to provide observations of sea ice extent and rainfall (fresh water flux).…”