Renewable energy support policy evaluation: The role of long-term uncertainty in market modelling

Scott, Ian; Botterud, Audun; Carvalho, Pedro; Silva, Carlos Santos

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115643

Cited by 23 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Fitiwi et al [37] conducted an assessment on renewable energy utilization for the Irish power system under community acceptance policies considering the uncertainty of storage costs. Scott et al [38] carried out a study on the role of long-term uncertainty in electricity market modelling for renewable energy support policy evaluation. There are other studies that consider uncertainty in different aspects of renewable-related projects, such as load demand uncertainty [39,40]; renewable energy resources uncertainty [41,42]; uncertainties of the inflow of the hydropower plant and the PV power output [43]; wind energy uncertainty [44]; uncertainty in the costs of renewable energy [45]; uncertainties of wind speed, solar radiation intensity, and power load [46]; and uncertainties of renewable energy production and load demand [47].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Impact of Economic Uncertainty on Optimal Sizing of Grid-Independent Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems

et al. 2021

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One of the many barriers to decarbonization and decentralization of the energy sector in developing countries is the economic uncertainty. As such, this study scrutinizes economics of three grid-independent hybrid renewable-based systems proposed to co-generate electricity and heat for a small-scale load. Accordingly, the under-study systems are simulated and optimized with the aid of HOMER Pro software. Here, a 20-year average value of discount and inflation rates is deemed a benchmark case. The techno-economic-environmental and reliability results suggest a standalone solar/wind/electrolyzer/hydrogen-based fuel cell integrated with a hydrogen-based boiler system is the best alternative. Moreover, to ascertain the impact of economic uncertainty on optimal unit sizing of the nominated model, the fluctuations of the nominal discount rate and inflation, respectively, constitute within the range of 15–20% and 10–26%. The findings of economic uncertainty analysis imply that total net present cost (TNPC) fluctuates around the benchmark value symmetrically between $478,704 and $814,905. Levelized energy cost varies from an amount 69% less than the benchmark value up to two-fold of that. Furthermore, photovoltaic (PV) optimal size starts from a value 23% less than the benchmark case and rises up to 55% more. The corresponding figures for wind turbine (WT) are, respectively, 21% and 29%. Eventually, several practical policies are introduced to cope with economic uncertainty.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Impact of Economic Uncertainty on Optimal Sizing of Grid-Independent Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems

et al. 2021

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“…This accomplishment on RE demand is challenging as the unpredictable future of power demand is unknown with precise statistics (Li et al, 2021a). Integrating uncertainty to discrete situations is important to acquires respectively distinct setup, in which decision make can forecast the demand and costs requirement, and the most efficient technology to respond to the future ES (Scott et al, 2020). Further, the new situation on geopolitics supply-demand balancing is the vital issue to increase the RE usage; still, only few analytical outlines have been developed (Vakulchuk et al, 2020).…”

Section: Energy Demandmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To progress an empowering liberal RE policies, occasioning reimbursements necessity to be clear by policy-makers, citizens and industries (Adelaja, 2020). Policy adoptions should thoroughly clarify difference RE deployments and offer a robust rationale for optimization approaches to integrating long-term vagueness into market modelling (Scott et al, 2020). Since the lack of studies in RE disposition is attributable to the absence of firm RE policies, understanding the complete magnitude of contests confronted in political implementation is important.…”

Section: Energy Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Yet, future uncertainty in RE, such as pricing, will result in higher uncertain level of costs, and energy distribution and consumption. Integrating uncertainty as vagueness scenarios amends biases in the appraised costs among quantity-based approaches (Scott et al, 2020). The verdicts are complex and difficult due to the large amount of hesitating intrinsic in the input's predictions.…”

Section: Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Data-Driven Analysis on Sustainable Energy Security

Bui

Tseng

2021

Journal of Global Information Management

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This study provides a data-driven analysis that illustrates a clear renewable energy depiction in sustainable energy security and unveils the regional issues due to the literature solely occupies energy security concept in the descriptions view, and renewable energy differences related to regions are rarely discussed. A hybrid method is proposed to valid those indicators and shows the trend of future studies. This study enriches the challenges and opportunities by contributing to understand the fundamental knowledge of renewable energy in sustainable energy security frontier, conveyance directions for future study and investigation, and assessment on global renewable energy position and regional disparities. There are valid 19 indicators, in which energy demand, energy policy, renewable resources, smart grid, and uncertainty representing the future trends. World regional comparison includes 115 countries/territories and categorized into five geographical regions. The result shows that those indicators have addressed different issues in the world regional comparison.

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“…http://www.energyproceedings.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/AEAB2019_paper_121.pdf [53]  Scott IJ, Botterud A, Carvalho PMS, Silva CA (2020). Renewable energy support policy evaluation: The role of long-term uncertainty in market modelling.Applied Energy, 278, 115643 [54]. The model developed in this thesis also contributed to the following publication:  Neves D, Scott I, Silva CA (2020).…”

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confidence: 95%

Long-Term Uncertainty In Electricity Market Modelling, Policy, and Planning

Scott¹

2021

SSRN Journal

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I have been lucky with my supervisors and collaborators who I am glad to thank. Firstly, I would like to thank Prof. Pedro Carvalho for the support, ideas, dedication, flexibility, and encouragement that contributed to every part of this work. I would like to also thank Prof. Carlos Silva for the encouragement and flexibility shown with me throughout this journey as well as his continuous support in allowing me to pursue my diverse interests.Next, I would like to thank Dr. Audun Botterud for the encouragement, ideas shared, detailed and diligent input, and hosting me in such a friendly and supportive manner at the MIT, an experience from which I gained a lot. I would like to thank my collaborators Felix Diawuo and Diana Neves for the interesting research topics that kept me distracted and interested and the friendship provided along the way. I would also like to thank Patricia Baptista for the advice and input provided to Felix and myself. I would like to thank my InnoEnergy Lisboa colleagues Sonia, Kaisa, Julia, and Eduardo for the support, distraction, and friendship as well as the many others from the MIT Portugal Program, IN+, and InnoEnergy.Perhaps most importantly, I wish to thank my partner, Filipa de Almeida, without whom I surely would not have begun, let alone completed, this thesis. Her love and support in this endeavour, as in all things, makes anything possible. I also cannot thank enough my parents for their support in all forms on which I have always been so fortunate to be able to rely on. I am forever grateful for the love, sacrifice, guidance, proof-reading, and upbringing they provided me that has allowed me to chase my interests around the world, any and all achievements are always entirely due to them.

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Renewable energy support policy evaluation: The role of long-term uncertainty in market modelling

Cited by 23 publications

References 47 publications

Investigating the Impact of Economic Uncertainty on Optimal Sizing of Grid-Independent Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems

Investigating the Impact of Economic Uncertainty on Optimal Sizing of Grid-Independent Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems

A Data-Driven Analysis on Sustainable Energy Security

Long-Term Uncertainty In Electricity Market Modelling, Policy, and Planning

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