Report 21: Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil

Notas comunicativas do Clã Lagarta da etnia Sateré-Mawé/AM sobre a covid-19

“…Em nosso bom encontro com Josias pareceu óbvio que, para os Sateré-Mawé, assim como a todos os ameríndios do bioma Amazônia, o governo não agiu no sentido de privilegiar nativos das terras brasileiras. Os indígenas têm ampla consciência disso e sabem que países os quais informaram e orientaram a população, privilegiando grupos vulneráveis, tiveram êxito na primeira e na segunda onda da pandemia (Mellan et al, 2020). E isso não aconteceu no Brasil.…”

A matlab code to compute reproduction numbers with applications to the Covid-19 outbreak

“…(see e.g. [13]). For time scales such as those of Covid-19, the choice d = 3 is good to zoom in the scenario and facilitate the reading (Figure 6), while not compromising robustness (Figure 7).…”

“…The monitoring of the evolving state of a serious epidemic can be done during and after its outbreak by estimating the daily values of basic ratios generally known as reproductive or reproduction numbers [5,6,7,13]. While not properly geared to allow serious predictions of future values of the epidemic, they are nevertheless able to display the past and present history with amazing clarity.…”

Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Mexico

“…For the state-level IFR, we made adjustments accounting for the substantial heterogeneity we expect to observe in health outcomes across states, due to variation in healthcare quality and capacity (as in Mellan et al, 2020). We consider the IFR of Mexico City as the IFR estimated from the Chinese epidemic Verity et al, 2020), and the IFR of Chiapas and Oaxaca, which are the most marginalized states in Mexico, more similar to those that would be expected in a Lower Middle Income Country (see Walker et al, 2020).…”