Reproducibility of San Andreas Fault Slip Rate Measurements at Wallace Creek in the Carrizo Plain, CA

Ludwig, Lisa Grant; Akciz, S. O.; Arrowsmith, R.; Salisbury, J.B.

doi:10.1029/2017ea000360

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The San Andreas fault (SAF) is a 1,000‐km‐long, right‐lateral transform fault that accommodates up to 70% of the total ∼49 mm/yr of Pacific‐North America relative plate motion in California (Bennett et al., 1996; DeMets et al., 1994; Sieh, 1978; Sieh & Jahns, 1984). The 300‐km‐long central section of the SAF is notably single‐stranded, with several well‐constrained slip rates of ∼35 mm/yr (Grant‐Ludwig et al., 2019; Noriega et al., 2006; Salisbury et al., 2018; Sieh, 1978; Sieh & Jahns, 1984). This central section is also the most structurally isolated part of the SAF, with relatively few fast‐slipping faults in the surrounding fault network between the Pacific Plate to the west and the northern part of the eastern California shear zone (ECSZ) to the east (Figure 2c).…”

Section: Data and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Relative Structural Complexity of Plate‐Boundary Fault Systems Controls Incremental Slip‐Rate Behavior of Major Strike‐Slip Faults

Gauriau

Dolan

2021

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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Understanding the manner in which major plate-boundary-scale faults accommodate slip is of critical importance for a wide range of issues in the Earth sciences, including the geodynamics of relative plate motions, the mechanics of storage of elastic strain energy on faults and the release of that energy during earthquakes, the steadiness and predictability of fault slip through time, and the use of geological slip-rate data in seismic hazard assessment. Previous analyses of major plate-boundary strike-slip faults have revealed a wide range of behaviors, from relatively constant slip rates spanning a range of time intervals on some faults (

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Section: Data and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To illustrate the effect on incremental slip of the simple tectonic setting of the central SAF, we combined data from the closely spaced Van Matre Ranch and Wallace Creek study sites of Grant‐Ludwig et al. (2019), Noriega et al. (2006) and Sieh and Jahns (1984) (Figure ).…”

Section: Data and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relative Structural Complexity of Plate‐Boundary Fault Systems Controls Incremental Slip‐Rate Behavior of Major Strike‐Slip Faults

Gauriau

Dolan

2021

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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“…Although there are advantages and disadvantages to slip rates spanning short‐term (<5 earthquake cycles) and long‐term (>5 earthquake cycles) slip rates from any method, longer‐term rates should be more accurate than shorter‐term estimates (Grant Ludwig et al, 2019; Styron, 2019) unless there is evidence for substantial earthquake clustering or temporal variation in slip rate. Quaternary geologic slip rates based on offset markers can be biased by the unknown duration of open intervals, but this effect is lessened over longer periods of time so long as there has not been substantial variation in fault slip throughout the measurement time.…”

Section: Fault Slip Rates and Seismic Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Slip rates derived from short paleoseismic records (less than five earthquake cycles) can also be subject to inaccuracies resulting from averaging a very small number of earthquakes from a system that may have high variance (Nicol et al, 2009; Weldon, 2011). This bias is diminished over longer paleoseismic records, as the number of sampled earthquakes increases and the total rate converges toward the mean (Grant Ludwig et al, 2019; Styron, 2019).…”

Section: Fault Slip Rates and Seismic Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic Hazard Analyses From Geologic and Geomorphic Data: Current and Future Challenges

et al. 2020

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The loss of life and economic consequences caused by several recent earthquakes demonstrate the importance of developing seismically safe building codes. The quantification of seismic hazard, which describes the likelihood of earthquake-induced ground shaking at a site for a specific time period, is a key component of a building code, as it helps ensure that structures are designed to withstand the ground shaking caused by a potential earthquake. Geologic or geomorphic data represent important inputs to the most common seismic hazard model (probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, or PSHAs), as they can characterize the magnitudes, locations, and types of earthquakes that occur over long intervals (thousands of years). However, several recent earthquakes and a growing body of work challenge many of our previous assumptions about the characteristics of active faults and their rupture behavior, and these complexities can be challenging to accurately represent in PSHA. Here, we discuss several of the outstanding challenges surrounding geologic and geomorphic data sets frequently used in PSHA. The topics we discuss include how to utilize paleoseismic records in fault slip rate estimates, understanding and modeling earthquake recurrence and fault complexity, the development and use of fault-scaling relationships, and characterizing enigmatic faults using topography. Making headway in these areas will likely require advancements in our understanding of the fundamental science behind processes such as fault triggering, complex rupture, earthquake clustering, and fault scaling. Progress in these topics will be important if we wish to accurately capture earthquake behavior in a variety of settings using PSHA in the future. Plain Language Summary Growing infrastructure and increasing population have caused significant loss of life due to recent large earthquakes, with the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan and 2005 M w 7.6 Kashmir earthquakes each causing greater than 50,000 deaths. These earthquakes highlight the need for the development of building codes designed to withstand the strong ground shaking caused by earthquakes, as reinforced infrastructure is one of the most important factors for preventing fatalities due to ground shaking from earthquakes. Identifying the seismic hazard of a region, or the likelihood of ground shaking at a site due to potential earthquakes over time, is a key ingredient for informing a defensible building code. Here, we focus on current and future advances in how data from the fields of geology and geomorphology contribute to the most widely used type of seismic hazard model. These geologic data represent vital components to seismic hazard models, as they can provide information about the location and types of earthquakes that can occur over long, thousands of years, time periods, that cannot be obtained using other methods. We discuss some of the most pressing scientific issues about these data that are important for the development of seismic hazard models and defensible building codes.

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“…Unravelling the relationship between geologic fault slip rates and rates of strain accumulation as measured by geodesy is critically important for developing a better understanding of the mechanics of faults and the seismic hazards that they pose. Whereas some major faults exhibit constant behavior, with relatively steady geologic slip rates spanning a range of time and displacement scales (e.g., Kozacı et al, 2009Kozacı et al, , 2011Berryman et al, 2012;Salisbury et al, 2018;Grant Ludwig et al, 2019), other faults exhibit highly irregular slip rates through time, with centennial to millennial periods of relatively fast slip rate spanning multiple earthquake cycles, separated by prolonged periods of slower or no slip rate (e.g., Benedetti et al, 2002;Friedrich et al, 2003;Bull et al, 2006;Dolan et al, 2016;Hatem et al, 2020;Zinke et al, 2017Zinke et al, , 2019Zinke et al, , 2021.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of geodetic slip-deficit and geologic fault slip rates reveals that variability of elastic strain accumulation and release rates on strike-slip faults is controlled by the relative structural complexity of plate-boundary fault systems

Gauriau,

Dolan

2024

Seismica

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Comparison of geodetic slip-deficit rates with geologic fault slip rates on major strike-slip faults reveals marked differences in patterns of elastic strain accumulation on tectonically isolated faults relative to faults that are embedded within more complex plate-boundary fault systems. Specifically, we show that faults that extend through tectonically complex systems characterized by multiple, mechanically complementary faults (that is, different faults that are all accommodating the same deformation field), which we refer to as high-Coefficient of Complexity (or high-CoCo) faults, exhibit ratios between geodetic and geologic rates that vary and that depend on the displacement scales over which the geologic slip rates are averaged. This indicates that elastic strain accumulation rates on these faults change significantly through time, which in turn suggests that the rates of ductile shear beneath the seismogenic portion of faults also vary through time. This is consistent with models in which mechanically complementary faults trade off slip in time and space in response to varying mechanical and stress conditions on the different component faults. In marked contrast, structurally isolated (or low-CoCo) faults exhibit geologic slip rates that are similar to geodetic slip-deficit rates, regardless of the displacement and time scales over which the slip rates are averaged. Such faults experience relatively constant geologic fault slip rates as well as constant strain accumulation rate (aside from brief, rapid post-seismic intervals). This suggests that low-CoCo faultsd "keep up" with the rate imposed by the relative plate-boundary condition, since they are the only structures in their respective plate-boundary zone that can effectively accommodate the imposed steady plate motion. We hypothesize that the discrepancies between the small-displacement average geologic slip rates and geodetic slip-deficit rates may provide a means of assessing a switch of modes for some high-CoCo faults, transitioning from a slow mode to a faster mode, or vice versa. If so, the differences between geologic slip rates and geodetic slip-deficit rates on high-CoCo faults may indicate changes in a fault's behavior that could be used to refine next-generation probabilistic seismic hazard assessments.

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Reproducibility of San Andreas Fault Slip Rate Measurements at Wallace Creek in the Carrizo Plain, CA

Cited by 9 publications

References 25 publications

Relative Structural Complexity of Plate‐Boundary Fault Systems Controls Incremental Slip‐Rate Behavior of Major Strike‐Slip Faults

Relative Structural Complexity of Plate‐Boundary Fault Systems Controls Incremental Slip‐Rate Behavior of Major Strike‐Slip Faults

Seismic Hazard Analyses From Geologic and Geomorphic Data: Current and Future Challenges

Comparison of geodetic slip-deficit and geologic fault slip rates reveals that variability of elastic strain accumulation and release rates on strike-slip faults is controlled by the relative structural complexity of plate-boundary fault systems

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