Reproduction Numbers of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variants: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Du, Zhanwei; Liu, Caifen; Wang, Qianqian; Xu, Lingfeng; Xu, Miao; Wang, Lin; Bai, Yuan; Xu, Xiao-Ke; Lau, Eric H Y; Wu, Peng; Cowling, Benjamin J.

doi:10.1093/cid/ciac137

Cited by 28 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…This situation could be explained because the rst COVID-19 wave in Mexico occurred during a national lock-down that aimed to minimize social interaction across the country. During the second wave, mainly driven by Alpha variants, our R numbers were similar for those reported in South Korea [21] and from a recent meta-analysis from 122 studies [22]. Our Delta variant-driven third wave R number (2.17) was similar to that reported in meta-analyses from late 2020 [23,24].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Comparative epidemiology of four waves of COVID-19 in Mexico, March 2020 - April 2022

Ascencio-Montiel

Ovalle-Luna

Rascón-Pacheco

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background The Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS) is the largest health provider in Mexico, covering about 40% of the Mexican population. In this report we described the epidemiological patterns related to cases, hospitalizations, intubations, and in-hospital mortality due to COVID-19 during the four epidemic waves reported in the IMSS surveillance system. Methods A descriptive study was conducted using the information from the Online Epidemiological Surveillance System (SINOLAVE). COVID-19 laboratory-confirmed cases with onset of symptoms from March 29th, 2020, to April 30th, 2022, were analyzed. Weekly epidemic curves describing the temporal evolution of confirmed cases and hospitalizations by age, gender, and wave were constructed. Hospitalization percentage, intubation percentages, hospital case fatality rate and mean days of in-hospital stay, and hospital admission delay were calculated across four pandemic waves. Results A total of 2,624,225 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases were analyzed. Overall estimates were 13.7% for hospitalization, 21.2% for intubation and 46.1% for hospital case fatality rate. The mean in-hospital stay was 9.01 days, and the mean hospital admission delay was 5.4 days. The most recent peak dominated by the Omicron variant that occurred during winter 2021 was the highest case incidence followed by peaks during the third, second and first waves. Hospitalization, intubation and mean hospitalization days decreased during subsequent waves. The hospital case fatality rate fluctuated during the study period and reached its highest value during the second wave in winter 2020 dominated by the Alpha variant. A notable decrease in hospitalization rates was observed especially among individuals > = 60 yrs. The winter 2021 wave, driven by the Omicron variant, exhibited the highest reproduction number (R ~ 4.02). Conclusion During the four epidemic waves in the IMSS we observed an increase in the number of reported cases, but the severity metrics tended to decline over subsequent waves.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Comparative epidemiology of four waves of COVID-19 in Mexico, March 2020 - April 2022

Ascencio-Montiel

Ovalle-Luna

Rascón-Pacheco

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…But epidemiological population‐level measures (e.g. the basic reproduction number) usually hide immense variation at the individual level (Du, Hong et al., 2022 ; Du, Javan et al., 2020 ; Du, Liu et al., 2022 ; Du, Tian et al., 2022 ; Du, Xu et al., 2020 ). We thus carried out a systematic review and meta‐analysis of 17 studies on the dispersion parameter to characterize COVID‐19 superspreading.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systematic review and meta‐analyses of superspreading of SARS‐CoV‐2 infections

Wang

Liu

et al. 2022

Transbounding Emerging Dis

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Superspreading, or overdispersion in transmission, is a feature of SARS‐CoV‐2 transmission which results in surging epidemics and large clusters of infection. The dispersion parameter is a statistical parameter used to characterize and quantify heterogeneity. In the context of measuring transmissibility, it is analogous to measures of superspreading potential among populations by assuming that collective offspring distribution follows a negative‐binomial distribution. We conducted a systematic review and meta‐analysis on globally reported dispersion parameters of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. All searches were carried out on 10 September 2021 in PubMed for articles published from 1 January 2020 to 10 September 2021. Multiple estimates of the dispersion parameter have been published for 17 studies, which could be related to where and when the data were obtained, in 8 countries (e.g. China, the United States, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, New Zealand and Singapore). High heterogeneity was reported among the included studies. The mean estimates of dispersion parameters range from 0.06 to 2.97 over eight countries, the pooled estimate was 0.55 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.79), with changing means over countries and decreasing slightly with the increasing reproduction number. The expected proportion of cases accounting for 80% of all transmissions is 19% (95% CrI: 7, 34) globally. The study location and method were found to be important drivers for diversity in estimates of dispersion parameters. While under high potential of superspreading, larger outbreaks could still occur with the import of the COVID‐19 virus by traveling even when an epidemic seems to be under control.

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“…The rapid spread of this novel virus necessitated an immediate and rapid introduction of public health prevention and mitigation strategies, including masking and social distancing. As our understanding of the virus, its transmission, reproduction number (R0) and variants evolved, so did the guidelines or strategies that were encouraged by health officials and the subsequent uptake of those strategies [ 2 ]. In the face of crisis, people responded in a variety of ways, from adhering to the words of experts to rejecting all advice and public health guidance [ 3 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Masking Behaviors in the Absence of Local Mandate—An Observational Study from Hillsborough County, Florida

Pecoraro

Bakour

Oberne

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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The purpose of this study was to understand the predictors of masking—especially age, race/ethnicity and gender—in Hillsborough County Florida, a region without mask mandates. Masking and social distancing behaviors of individuals were observed in Hillsborough County during one-week intervals in July 2021, August 2021 and Late September—early October 2021. Demographic and behavioral observations were recorded and logistic regression was utilized to determine the odds ratio of wearing a mask amongst various groups. Overall, masking ranged from 36.80% to 48.64%, peaking during the second observation period. Masking rates were highest amongst people of color, women and seniors. Establishments posting mask-negative language, such as “masks NOT required,” saw a 46% decrease in the odds of masking compared to establishments without mask-related signage (thereby defaulting to no mandate). Understanding who engaged in masking and social distancing behaviors will provide local public health officials with a deeper understanding of the effectiveness of previously used strategies, which can be leveraged in future surges of COVID-19 and other emergencies to create maximum impact. Lessons learned regarding policy implementation and understanding patterns of uptake of health guidelines are important for the continuous improvement of public health practice.

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Reproduction Numbers of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variants: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Cited by 28 publications

References 3 publications

Comparative epidemiology of four waves of COVID-19 in Mexico, March 2020 - April 2022

Comparative epidemiology of four waves of COVID-19 in Mexico, March 2020 - April 2022

Systematic review and meta‐analyses of superspreading of SARS‐CoV‐2 infections

Masking Behaviors in the Absence of Local Mandate—An Observational Study from Hillsborough County, Florida

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