Resilience of lowland Atlantic forests in a highly fragmented landscape: Insights on the temporal scale of landscape restoration

Safar, Nathália Vieira Hissa; Magnago, Luiz Fernando Silva; Schaefer, Carlos Ernesto Gonçalves Reynaud

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118183

Cited by 22 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…For instance, the concept of MRT is less appropriate in modelling successional change and highly dynamic systems, where internal feedbacks may adjust C losses (mortality) with variations in density and age (Peters , 2003;Ge et al, 2019). Chronosequence data at high spatial and temporal resolutions can provide the means to test alternate representations of successional variation in C cycling and storage (e.g., Safar et al, 2020).…”

Section: Which Ecosystem Traits Are Most Strongly Correlated With Simulated Carbon Dynamics?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Parameter uncertainty dominates C cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st Century

Smallman¹,

Milodowski²,

Sousa‐Neto³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Identification of terrestrial carbon (C) sources and sinks is critical for understanding the earth system and to mitigate and adapt to climate change results from greenhouse gas emissions. Predicting whether a given location will act as a C source or sink using terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) is challenging due to net flux being the difference between far larger, spatially and temporally variable fluxes with large uncertainties. Uncertainty in projections of future dynamics, critical for policy evaluation, has been determined using multi-TEM intercomparisons, for various emissions scenarios. This approach quantifies structural and forcing errors. However, the role of parameter error within models has not been determined. TEMs typically have defined parameters for specific plant functional types generated from the literature. To ascertain the importance of parameter error in forecasts we present a Bayesian analysis that uses data on historical and current C cycling for Brazil to parameterise five TEMs of varied complexity with a retrieval of model error covariance at 1 degree spatial resolution. After evaluation against data from 2001–2017, the parameterised models are simulated to 2100 under four climate change scenarios spanning the likely range of climate projections. Using multiple models, each with per pixel parameter ensembles, we partition forecast uncertainties. Parameter uncertainty dominates across most of Brazil when simulating future stock changes in biomass C and dead organic matter (DOM). Uncertainty of simulated biomass change is most strongly correlated with net primary productivity allocation to wood (NPPwood) and wood mean residence times (MRTwood). Uncertainty of simulated DOM change is most strongly correlated with MRTsoil and NPPwood. Due to the coupling between these variables and C stock dynamics being bi-directional we argue that using repeat estimates of woody biomass will provide a valuable constraint needed to refine predictions of the future carbon cycle. Finally, evaluation of our multi-model analysis shows that wood litter contributes substantially to fire emissions necessitating a greater understanding of wood litter C-cycling than is typically considered in large-scale TEMs.

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Section: Which Ecosystem Traits Are Most Strongly Correlated With Simulated Carbon Dynamics?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Parameter uncertainty dominates C cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st Century

Smallman¹,

Milodowski²,

Sousa‐Neto³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Studying a chronosequence of SSF regenerated from 7 to 33 years old, Safar et al (2020) found that the species richness tends to increase with the age of the forest, pattern also observed along with a temporal scale analyses of a natural remnant of the same vegetation type (Farah et al, 2014). However, this effect does not seem to exist in restoration plantings aging from 5 to 30 years (Figure 1b).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 56%

“…Worldwide, huge efforts have been applied to reintroduce and sustain endangered and endemic species in human-dominated landscapes, where forest restoration is one of the main tools indicated for this purpose (CBD, 2013;MMA, 2017). In Brazil, studies on naturally regenerated SSF aging from 5-33 years found an average of 2-3 species threatened of extinction (among the vulnerable, threatened, and critically endangered categories) and 9-10 species endemic in each restoration site (Matos et al, 2019;Safar et al, 2020). In a preserved remnant of SSF, Rocha et al (2017) identified nine threatened and 44 endemic species.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the low abundance of these species in the restorations, together with the low forest cover of the studied regions, are detrimental factors for these populations in the long run, regarding the isolation context that these populations are embedded (Wilson et al, 2004;Guisan et al, 2006;Maçaneiro et al, 2018;Safar et al, 2020). Thus, to ensure the perpetuation of priority plant species in restored forests, it is necessary to monitor and manage their populations tied to the species natural behavior.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These benefits have often been presented as Ecosystem Services (ES), a powerful tool for environmental planning and a guide to resource management (Balvanera et al, 2012). Although there is a continuous and fundamental growth in knowledge related to forest recovery and its role in the supply of ES, the implications of these actions for plant species conservation are less clear, especially in forests restored by active restoration methods (Gardner et al, 2011;Phelps et al, 2012;MMA, 2017;Ferreira et al, 2018;Matos et al, 2019;Safar et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Serviços ecossistêmicos de carbono, composição e estrutura florestal em uma cronosequência de plantios de restauração

Gardon¹

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Agradeço primeiramente à Roze, minha estimada orientadora, que esteve ao meu lado por esses quatro anos (e também antes disso), sempre elevando o nível (e o moral) e me incentivando a fazer mais do que eu mesmo acreditava que era capaz. Muito obrigado por todo o conhecimento compartilhado, orientação, amizade e sessões de terapia. Fico feliz em pensar que mesmo acabando esta etapa já temos outros projetos planejados. Sou grato pela nossa convivência.Obrigado! Agradeço ao Prof. Dr. Ricardo Ribeiro Rodrigues, que aceitou ser meu co-orientador durante esta fase e que me abriu diversas portas no âmbito da ciência e prática da restauração florestal. Agradeço por agregar na minha formação, principalmente pelo conhecimento compartilhado nas aulas de adequação ambiental e taxonomia de campo. Obrigado pelas contribuições, por todo o tempo dispendido no projeto e pela intensa orientação, mas mais que isso, obrigado pelo ânimo e pela inspiração no trabalho.Atesto aqui meu sincero agradecimento ao Prof. Dr. Alexandre Adalardo de Oliveira, que aceitou o convite de participar do comitê de orientação desta tese. Obrigado por todo suporte teórico, mas principalmente, obrigado por auxiliar no aprimoramento das análises estatísticas na reta final do trabalho. Agradeço ainda o conhecimento compartilhado nas aulas de PLANECO e R, as quais foram fundamentais para a realização desta tese e consolidação do meu conhecimento.

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Diversity and function of tree species in human-modified Atlantic Forest landscapes

et al. 2023

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Agroforestry has been suggested as a sustainable strategy to promote biodiversity conservation in agricultural land, and farmers' knowledge can be crucial to design more diverse agroforestry systems. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to assess the conservation value of agroforestry systems in relation to forest areas in different stages of natural succession as well as farmers' knowledge. The conservation value of agroforestry systems (coffee and pastures) was assessed through tree diversity indices and compared with values found in forest areas using rarefaction curve. In parallel, we assessed the tree functions according to farmers' knowledge using an ethnobotanical survey. Species richness in

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Resilience of lowland Atlantic forests in a highly fragmented landscape: Insights on the temporal scale of landscape restoration

Cited by 22 publications

References 67 publications

Parameter uncertainty dominates C cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st Century

Parameter uncertainty dominates C cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st Century

Serviços ecossistêmicos de carbono, composição e estrutura florestal em uma cronosequência de plantios de restauração

Diversity and function of tree species in human-modified Atlantic Forest landscapes

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