Resolving Inconsistencies in Extreme Precipitation‐Temperature Sensitivities

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events are intensifying with increasing temperatures. However, observed extreme precipitation-temperature sensitivities have been found to vary significantly across the globe. Here we show that negative sensitivities found in previous studies are the result of limited consideration of within-day temperature variations due to precipitation. We find that short-duration extreme precipitation can be better described by subdaily atmospheric conditions before the start of storm events, resulting in positive sensitivities with increased consistency with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation across a wide range of climatic regions. Contrary to previous studies that advocate that dew point temperature drives precipitation, dry-bulb temperature is found to be a sufficient descriptor of precipitation variability. We argue that analysis methods for estimating extreme precipitation-temperature sensitivities should account for the strong and prolonged cooling effect of intense precipitation, as well as for the intermittent nature of precipitation. Plain Language Summary Increasing global temperatures are likely to result in the intensification of extreme precipitation events with resultant flooding of great societal concern. Understanding the relationship between extreme precipitation and temperature provides valuable information for the design, operation, and risk assessment of high-hazard infrastructure. However, the observed precipitation-temperature relationship has been found to vary significantly across the globe, with negative relationships found in warmer climatic regions. Using station-based subdaily observations, we show that careful sampling of higher temperatures measured before the start of the storm events can result in positive extreme precipitation-temperature relationships across a wide range of climatic regions. Dry-bulb temperature is found to drive short-duration precipitation extremes, contradicting previous studies promoting dew point temperature as the main driver of precipitation variability. Our results indicate the use of coarser daily-scale observations in previous studies contributed to obtaining negative relationships by limiting consideration for within-day temperature variation caused by the rainfall event itself.

Consistent Large‐Scale Response of Hourly Extreme Precipitation to Temperature Variation Over Land

“…Zhang et al, 2017), statistical methods and inappropriate modeling assumptions (Pumo et al, 2019;Wasko et al, 2015) and mixing of different rainfall types (P. Molnar et al, 2015). The intermittent nature of precipitation can also be responsible for the deviation in scaling (Schleiss, 2018) and Visser et al (2020) argued that this could be resolved by using dry-bulb temperature prior to the storm. Moreover, the localized effects of large-scale circulation patterns enhanced local moisture availability through upward motions and moisture convergence, and local-scale dynamics can influence scaling rates Guerreiro et al, 2018;Magan et al, 2020;Mishra et al, 2012;Pfahl et al, 2017).…”

The Response of Daily and Sub‐Daily Extreme Precipitations to Changes in Surface and Dew‐Point Temperatures

“…Limited moisture availability at higher temperatures was also observed by Molnar et al (2015) in Switzerland, Park and Min (2017) in South Korea, and Peleg et al (2018) in the eastern Mediterranean. Finally, it should be mentioned that, contrary to previous studies, Visser et al (2020) argued that dry-bulb temperature can adequately describe short-duration extreme precipitation if sub-daily atmospheric conditions before the storm events are taken into consideration.…”

“…Finally, it should be mentioned that, contrary to previous studies, Visser et al. (2020) argued that dry‐bulb temperature can adequately describe short‐duration extreme precipitation if sub‐daily atmospheric conditions before the storm events are taken into consideration.…”

Quasi‐Stationary Intense Rainstorms Spread Across Europe Under Climate Change

“…Higher moisture availability in the atmosphere with warming has been extensively studied and partially explains the observed and simulated rise in short‐duration precipitation extremes, with stronger updrafts also potentially contributing (Giorgi et al., 2016; Held & Soden, 2006; O’Gorman & Schneider, 2009). Many studies have reported increases in precipitation extremes with temperature following the Clausius‐Clapeyron (CC) rate of 7% per K (Ali et al., 2021; Visser et al., 2020). However, higher scaling rates (so called ‘super‐CC scaling’) have been found for hourly precipitation extremes (Ban et al., 2015; Berg et al., 2013; Drobinski et al., 2018; Hodnebrog et al., 2019; Lenderink & van Meijgaard, 2008; van de Vyver et al., 2019).…”