Response of a barrier estuary to climate change and river regulation using attractor analysis: Snowy River estuary, Australia

Abstract

The evolution of the entrance channel of the Snowy River estuary in response to river regulation and climate change is predicted. The predictions are made in terms of the physical attractors that define possible long‐term states of the estuary entrance condition. The classification of these attractors shows the dependence of the entrance stability on the catchment inflows and the present entrance depth. The Snowy River estuary in south‐eastern Australia is a barrier estuary with an unstable entrance that tends to closure. The classification from the attractor map shows that the estuary entrance has changed from predominantly stable to a predominantly unstable state attributable to diversion of water from the upper catchment. The introduction of a series of environmental flow regimes, commencing in 2002, has returned 8% rising to 21% of the mean annual natural flow, but this study shows that the releases provide limited improvement in entrance stability. Additionally, the predicted effects of climate change for this region include increased mean sea level (MSL), decreased annual rainfall, and increased incidence of storms. These changes will decrease stability, primarily through the rise in MSL. The rise in sea level will increase the plan area of the tidal basin, increasing the tidal prism, and hence drawing in more marine sand. The application to the Snowy River estuary provides a proof of concept of the attractor classification to support estuary management.