Response to climate change of montane herbaceous plants in the genus Rhodiola predicted by ecological niche modelling

Abstract

Climate change profoundly influences species distributions. These effects are evident in poleward latitudinal range shifts for many taxa, and upward altitudinal range shifts for alpine species, that resulted from increased annual global temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 22,000 BP). For the latter, the ultimate consequence of upward shifts may be extinction as species in the highest alpine ecosystems can migrate no further, a phenomenon often characterized as “nowhere to go”. To predict responses to climate change of the alpine plants on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) to estimate the range shifts of 14 Rhodiola species, beginning with the Last Interglacial (ca. 120,000–140,000 BP) through to 2050. Distributions of Rhodiola species appear to be shaped by temperature-related variables. The southeastern QTP, and especially the Hengduan Mountains, were the origin and center of distribution for Rhodiola, and also served as refugia during the LGM. Under future climate scenario in 2050, Rhodiola species might have to migrate upward and northward, but many species would expand their ranges contra the prediction of the “nowhere to go” hypothesis, caused by the appearance of additional potential habitat concomitant with the reduction of permafrost with climate warming.

Upward elevation and northwest range shifts for alpine Meconopsis species in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains region

“…For the other five species ( M. horridula , M. impedita , M. integrifolia , M. lancifolia , and M. quintuplinervia ), the area of suitable habitat may either decrease or increase depending on the model and/or scenario, but most of the species were projected to show range expansions in the RCP 4.5 scenario. These results are in line with other vegetation modeling studies in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains; whereby, species are often predicted to experience an expansion of suitable climate space upwards and northwards (Liang et al, ; You et al, ). An increase in suitable habitat does of course not necessarily mean that the species will be able to track it in complex mountain systems.…”

“…The future projections consistently suggested that the area of Mountains; whereby, species are often predicted to experience an expansion of suitable climate space upwards and northwards (Liang et al, 2018;You et al, 2018). An increase in suitable habitat does of course not necessarily mean that the species will be able to track it in complex mountain systems.…”

Early Evidence of Shifts in Alpine Summit Vegetation: A Case Study From Kashmir Himalaya

“…The climate warming is expected to change alpine plant communities toward increasing dominance of warm-adapted species and loss of cold-adapted species, a phenomenon referred to as thermophilization (Gottfried et al, 2012;De Frenne et al, 2013). Thus, plant species which are narrowly specialized to cold habitats move upwards along elevation or experience local extinctions (Pauli et al, 2012;You et al, 2018). Therefore, alpine ecosystems can serve as best natural experimental systems to investigate the climate change-induced impacts on biological communities (Grabherr et al, 2010;Malanson et al, 2011), and these relatively pristine ecosystems can provide credible scientific evidence for detection of initial-warning signals of climate change (Wolf et al, 2012).…”

“…These changes in biodiversity on summits have highlighted that alpine flora is highly sensitive to rising temperatures (Bertrand et al, 2011;Gottfried et al, 2012;Vanneste et al, 2017;Steinbauer et al, 2018). In alpine areas, despite the availability of local biotic and abiotic refuges (Scherrer and Körner, 2011;Anthelme et al, 2014), the plant species need to move upward to adapt to the direct and indirect effects of warming (Lenoir et al, 2008;Gottfried et al, 2012;You et al, 2018). Alpine plant species are particularly sensitive to these range shifts because newly available upper habitats are devoid of life (Zimmer et al, 2018).…”

Scientistsʼ Warning on Climate Change and Medicinal Plants

“…Climate change will alter environmental conditions in many localities such that they are no longer idealor survivablefor some species that now inhabit them. The predicted suitable range for many species, including medicinal plants, will narrow or move substantially following expected climate changes [34][35][36][37][38][39], though other species will enjoy expansions of potential range. Distributions of many organisms are already shifting rapidly towards higher latitudes or elevations [40][41][42], which increases competitive pressure on existing species in these ranges.…”