Response to Matsusaka: Estimating the Effect of Ballot Initiatives on Policy Responsiveness

Abstract

JohnMatsusaka raises important questions about the methodology we used in earlier work to assess the impact of the initiative process (Camobreco 1998;Lascher, Hagen, and Rochlin 1996). Statistical tools applied routinely can nevertheless be applied thoughtlessly, and Matsusaka's uncommon attention to the fit between method and substance merits careful consideration. We ourselves have benefited from thinking the issues through, and we are pleased to have this opportunity to make more explicit the underpinnings of our work.In the end, however, we believe that the criticism is off the mark and that our conclusions stand. The data and methods we have used are perfectly suited to test the null hypothesis to which we applied them: government policy is no more responsive to the electorate's preferences in states where ballot initiatives are permitted than in states where they are not. Our purpose in this note is to sketch our reasoning in more detail. Like Matsusaka, we conclude with some observations about the accumulated evidence on the value of ballot initiatives. Estimating ResponsivenessWe can address Matsusaka's critique best by expressing it formally. The heart of the matter is the theoretical relationship between the policy of a state government and the policy preferred by the state's electorate, represented by

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