Retrospective voting in the Italian 2013 election: a sub-national perspective

Giuliani, Marco

doi:10.1017/ipo.2017.19

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Although the decentralization of the Italian political system started several decades ago, the literature on regional economic voting is virtually absent. Some studies have investigated the impact of some regional macroeconomic variables at the national level (Giuliani, 2018(Giuliani, , 2022a, while others have focused exclusively on economic voting at the national level, both in relation to the dependent variable and the independent variables (Bellucci, 1991(Bellucci, , 2003Lewis-Beck and Nadeau, 2012). To our knowledge, no study has yet focused on economic voting at regional elections.…”

Section: Multilevel Political Context and Economic Voting: The Italia...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic voting goes local: evidence from the Italian regions

Rombi,

Valbruzzi

2023

Riv. ital. sci. polit.

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This article investigates the pattern of economic voting at the regional level in Italy. It focuses on the elections held in 18 out of 20 Italian regions from 1995 to 2020. Retrospective voting is examined by using the theory of economic voting, measured at the subnational level. By providing some inferential models and controlling for the impact of phases of recession, this article tests the hypothesis whereby the incumbent regional government is rewarded (or punished) by voters in the event of a good (or poor) state of the regional economy. It mainly considers macroeconomic variables, focusing on the relationship between the unemployment rate (at both national and regional levels) and the electoral performance of the incumbent executive. The empirical analysis shows that, particularly during periods of ‘quiet politics’, economic voting also occurs at the local level and thus the regional unemployment rate affects regional rulers' electoral outcomes.

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Section: Multilevel Political Context and Economic Voting: The Italia...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic voting goes local: evidence from the Italian regions

Rombi,

Valbruzzi

2023

Riv. ital. sci. polit.

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“…A fortiori, this should be true for our analysis that focuses on legislative elections and uses subnational data only to establish the link between the economy and electoral behaviours at a more fine-grained level. Indeed, most studies confirm that the success of national incumbents is systematically associated with the local economic situation in contexts as diverse as France (Auberger and Dubois, 2005), Canada (Cutler, 2002), Italy (Giuliani, 2017(Giuliani, , 2022b, Portugal (Veiga and Veiga, 2010), the United Kingdom (Johnston et al, 2000), and the United States of America (De Benedictis-Kessner and Warshaw, 2020).…”

Section: The Context: Fifteen Elections In One Decadementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Data and method: a subnational cross-country multi-election approach Our research adopted subnational NUTS3 territorial units of analysis. 3 Although less frequent than the usual cross-country approach, subnational within-country analyses with objective data are not entirely new in the study of voting behaviour, and have been conducted also for some South-European elections (Martins and Veiga, 2013;Riera and Russo, 2016;Abbondanza and Bailo, 2017;Giuliani, 2017Giuliani, , 2022bVasilakis, 2018;Bratti et al, 2020).…”

Section: The Context: Fifteen Elections In One Decadementioning

confidence: 99%

Voting between two global crises. A NUTS3-level analysis of retrospective voting in four South-European countries

Giuliani

2022

Riv. ital. sci. polit.

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Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain went several times to the polls during the 2010–2019 decade. It was a period characterised by the strenuous effort to recover the economic situation before the onset of the Great Recession; an effort, however, often constrained by externally imposed austerity policies, and by a refugee crisis that contributed to the growing salience of the immigration issue. The article adopts an original sub-national approach to examine if and how the economic situation and the incidence of immigration affected the electoral outcomes in the four South-European countries. Adopting a theory of retrospective behaviour, the research reported in the article confirms the association between employment and immigration levels, on the one hand, and punishment of the incumbent government on the other. However, the electoral effects of immigration are conditioned by the partisan composition of the government and, under centre-right cabinets, are aggravated by a negative economic conjuncture.

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“…Alternatively, subnational units can be used to check if national incumbents perform locallyin national, but also supranational electoral competitionsaccording to the local economic situation (Auberger 2012(Auberger , 2014Giuliani 2017Giuliani , 2022bVeiga & Veiga 2010). There are three major advantages of this approach compared to large cross-country studies.…”

Section: An Economic Vote Perspective On Multi-country Longitudinal S...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Absolute and Benchmarked Economic Voting. A Subnational Perspective on a Decade of Elections in Southern Europe

Giuliani¹

2022

South European Society and Politics

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The article analyses the fifteen elections that took place in four South-European countries -Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spainduring the 2010-2019 decade. It does so by adopting NUTS3 sub-national territories as observation units. The theoretical framework used is the classic retrospective economic vote theory, updated with a taxonomy of retrospective behaviour derived from how voters benchmark their assessment against some external reference point. While the electoral reactions of absolute economic voters depend solely on local economic conditions, benchmarking compares them with regional or national reference points, as well as diachronically with past economic performances. The results of these analyses aid understanding the economic horizons of voters, and substantiate the idea of (electoral) South-Europeanness, in a critical decade like the one covered by the article. variation of major economic and political dynamics. Next, I introduce the sub-national declination of the economic vote theory and how the idea of benchmarking helps to better distinguish different types of voting behaviours.In the empirical sections, I first present the data and model used, and then compare the empirical results of several conventional and benchmarked models. The final section reviews the findings and reflects on their meanings for regional South-European studies. Disaggregating the economic and political outlookThe world had just exited one crisisthe Great Recessionwhen it entered two new ones, the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, both with significant socio-economic correlates. Southern Europe did not experience even an interlude between the two emergency periods, with economic data that show scant recovery to pre-2008 levels compared to other areas within the European Union (EU). The overall number of people employed in Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Cyprus and Malta reached its lowest point in 2013, almost 10% fewer than in 2007, but in 2019 the quantity was still 2 percentage points below the pre-crisis reference level. At that time, the other 22 member-states had already improved their employment rates by 8 percentage points compared to 2007, with West-European countries leading the recovery, closely followed by Nordic ones and by those in Central-Eastern Europe. Their aggregate gross domestic product recovered sooner, but while the level of Southern-Europe GDP in 2019 was only 11% higher than before the Great Recession, the rest of the EU increased its production capacity by more than 32%, this time in a reverse regional order compared to the employment rankings.At the same time, the four major South-European countries did not experience exactly the same downturn, and their markets did not react in a perfectly similar manner to the global challenges (Capriati 2019; Parker & Tsarouhas 2018). Greece was the country that paid the highest toll to the Great Recession, especially in terms of wealth reduction, and had to agree to multiple international bailout agreements and conditions (Featherstone 2011). The Italia...

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Retrospective voting in the Italian 2013 election: a sub-national perspective

Cited by 3 publications

References 41 publications

Economic voting goes local: evidence from the Italian regions

Economic voting goes local: evidence from the Italian regions

Voting between two global crises. A NUTS3-level analysis of retrospective voting in four South-European countries

Absolute and Benchmarked Economic Voting. A Subnational Perspective on a Decade of Elections in Southern Europe

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