Review article: Climate change impacts on dam safety

Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier; Altarejos‐García, Luis; Morales-Torres, Adrián; Escuder‐Bueno, Ignacio

doi:10.5194/nhess-18-2471-2018

Cited by 78 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 103 publications

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“…As stated in Fluixá-Sanmartín et al (2018), changes in climate such as variations in extreme temperatures or frequency of heavy precipitation events (IPCC, 2012;Walsh et al, 2014) are likely to affect the different risk components driving dam failure. Hence, the proposed methodology intends to establish a framework for the evaluation of projected climate change impacts on dam safety attending to both climatic and non-climatic drivers.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As explained, such models are commonly used to inform dam safety management and they integrate and connect most variables concerning dam failure risk to analyse the different ways in which a dam can fail (failure modes) resulting from a loading event, calculating their probabilities and consequences (Ardiles et al, 2011;Serrano-Lombillo et al, 2011, 2012b, 2012aSPANCOLD, 2012). The model must be adapted following the effects of climate change on each of the risk components (Fluixá-Sanmartín et al, 2018).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As suggested inFluixá- Sanmartín et al (2018), this risk modelling approach is used in this work to structure and organize the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the different components of risk.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios: a case study from a Spanish dam

Fluixá-Sanmartín¹,

Morales-Torres²,

Escuder‐Bueno³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Dam safety is increasingly subjected to the influence of climate change. Its impacts must be assessed through the integration of the various effects acting on each aspect, considering their interdependencies, rather than by a simple accumulation of separate impacts. This serves as a dam safety management supporting tool to assess the vulnerability of the dam to climate change and to define adaptation strategies under an evolutive dam failure risk management framework. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on the safety of a Spanish dam under hydrological scenarios, integrating the various projected effects acting on each component of the risk, from the input hydrology to the consequences of the outflow hydrograph. In particular, the results of 21 regional climate models encompassing three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used to calculate the risk evolution of the dam until the end of the 21st century. Results show a progressive deterioration of the dam failure risk, for most of the cases contemplated, especially for the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Moreover, the individual analysis of each risk component shows that the alteration of the expected inflows has the greater influence on the final risk. The approach followed in this paper can serve as a useful guidebook for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in the analysis of other study cases.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios: a case study from a Spanish dam

Fluixá-Sanmartín¹,

Morales-Torres²,

Escuder‐Bueno³

et al. 2019

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…26/06/2014), required over 500 large dams be updated to reflect the current seismic control standards in Italy. Furthermore, the effects of climate change may undermine hypotheses that previously informed the design and construction of existing dams [1]. In addition, the control and regulation of hydraulic infrastructures are not always in harmony with the evolving hydrological and sedimentological regime.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A GIS Tool for Mapping Dam-Break Flood Hazards in Italy

Albano

Mancusi

Adamowski

et al. 2019

IJGI

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Mapping the delineation of areas that are flooded due to water control infrastructure failure is a critical issue. Practical difficulties often present challenges to the accurate and effective analysis of dam-break hazard areas. Such studies are expensive, lengthy, and require large volumes of incoming data and refined technical skills. The creation of cost-efficient geospatial tools provides rapid and inexpensive estimates of instantaneous dam-break (due to structural failure) flooded areas that complement, but do not replace, the results of hydrodynamic simulations. The current study implements a Geographic Information System (GIS) based method that can provide useful information regarding the delineation of dam-break flood-prone areas in both data-scarce environments and transboundary regions, in the absence of detailed studies. Moreover, the proposed tool enables, without advanced technical skills, the analysis of a wide number of case studies that support the prioritization of interventions, or, in emergency situations, the simulation of numerous initial hypotheses (e.g., the modification of initial water level/volume in the case of limited dam functionality), without incurring high computational time. The proposed model is based on the commonly available data for masonry dams, i.e., dam geometry (e.g., reservoir capacity, dam height, and crest length), and a Digital Elevation Model. The model allows for rapid and cost-effective dam-break hazard mapping by evaluating three components: (i) the dam-failure discharge hydrograph, (ii) the propagation of the flood, and (iii) the delineation of flood-prone areas. The tool exhibited high accuracy and reliability in the identification of hypothetical dam-break flood-prone areas when compared to the results of traditional hydrodynamic approaches, as applied to a dam in Basilicata (Southern Italy). In particular, the over- and under-estimation rates of the proposed tool, for the San Giuliano dam, Basilicata, were evaluated by comparing its outputs with flood inundation maps that were obtained by two traditional methods whil using a one-dimensional and a two-dimensional propagation model, resulting in a specificity value of roughly 90%. These results confirm that most parts of the flood map were correctly classified as flooded by the proposed GIS model. A sensitivity value of over 75% confirms that several zones were also correctly identified as non-flooded. Moreover, the overall effectiveness and reliability of the proposed model were evaluated, for the Gleno Dam (located in the Central Italian Alps), by comparing the results of literature studies concerning the application of monodimensional numerical models and the extent of the flooded area reconstructed by the available historical information, obtaining an accuracy of around 94%. Finally, the computational efficiency of the proposed tool was tested on a demonstrative application of 250 Italian arch and gravity dams. The results, when carried out using a PC, Pentium Intel Core i5 Processor CPU 3.2 GHz, 8 GB RAM, required about 73 min, showing the potential of such a tool applied to dam-break flood mapping for a large number of dams.

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“…Despite the climate-sensitivity of AM projects, AM practitioners have historically tended to largely ignore climate change in the design of efforts to restore ecosystems and recover species. For example, historical plans for ecosystem restoration and species recovery generally use past data (e.g., on flows, precipitation, temperatures, salmon returns) to assess the likely range of system variability rather than JAWRA JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION fully exploring the impacts of past and future variability in climate (see reviews by Roni et al 2002;Marmorek et al 2004;NRC 2009;Wiens et al 2017;Fluix a-Sanmart ın et al 2018). The future, under climate change, may display considerable shifts in the form and magnitude of system variability (Beechie et al 2008;Bisson et al 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptive Management and Climate Change Adaptation: Two Mutually Beneficial Areas of Practice

Marmorek

Nelitz

Eyzaguirre

et al. 2019

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Adaptive management (AM) is a rigorous approach to implementing, monitoring, and evaluating actions, so as to learn and adjust those actions. Existing AM projects are at risk from climate change, and current AM guidance does not provide adequate methods to deal with this risk. Climate change adaptation (CCA) is an approach to plan and implement actions to reduce risks from climate variability and climate change, and to exploit beneficial opportunities. AM projects could be made more resilient to extreme climate events by applying the principles and procedures of CCA. To test this idea, we analyze the effects of extreme climatic events on five existing AM projects focused on ecosystem restoration and species recovery, in the Russian, Trinity, Okanagan, Platte, and Missouri River Basins. We examine these five case studies together to generate insights on how integrating CCA principles and practices into their design and implementation could improve their sustainability, despite significant technical and institutional challenges, particularly at larger scales. Although climate change brings substantial risks to AM projects, it may also provide opportunities, including creating new habitats, increasing the ability to quickly test flow‐habitat hypotheses, stimulating improvements in watershed management and water conservation, expanding the use of real‐time tools for flow management, and catalyzing creative application of CCA principles and procedures.

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Review article: Climate change impacts on dam safety

Cited by 78 publications

References 103 publications

Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios: a case study from a Spanish dam

Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios: a case study from a Spanish dam

A GIS Tool for Mapping Dam-Break Flood Hazards in Italy

Adaptive Management and Climate Change Adaptation: Two Mutually Beneficial Areas of Practice

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