Review Lecture: Local weather forecasting

Browning, K. A.

doi:10.1098/rspa.1980.0076

Cited by 32 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 22 publications

(25 reference statements)

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“…Many authors have considered the relative skills, or predictability, of extrapolation‐based precipitation nowcasts and numerical weather prediction (NWP) (e.g. Browning, ; Zawadzki et al ., ; Germann and Zawadzki, ; Bowler et al ., ; Germann et al ., ). In the early days it was considered that extrapolation forecasts were of superior skill in the first 6 h (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…In the early days it was considered that extrapolation forecasts were of superior skill in the first 6 h (e.g. Browning, ). Pinto et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The advent of the availability of high spatial and temporal resolution observations, such as radar and geostationary satellite imagery, led to the development of automatic techniques for nowcasting (i.e. frequently updated forecasts for periods of 0–6 h ahead; Browning, ) of precipitation. The initial techniques were variants on a Lagrangian persistence approach to very‐short‐range forecasting (Dixon and Wiener, ; Witt and Johnson, ; Germann and Zawadzki, ; Turner et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Performance of 4D‐Var NWP‐based nowcasting of precipitation at the Met Office for summer 2012

Ballard

Simonin

et al. 2015

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The Met Office has developed and demonstrated an hourly cycling 1.5 km resolution NWP‐based nowcast system (0–6 h forecasts) using four‐dimensional variational data assimilation (4D‐Var). This was known as the Nowcasting Demonstration Project (NDP), and was principally for prediction of convective storms for flood forecasting. The NDP was run in real time from March 2012 to April 2013 to cover the period of the London Olympics 2012. The system was run on a domain covering southern England and Wales nested in the UK variable resolution model (UKV). The UKV used a UK‐wide 1.5 km domain with 3 hourly cycling three‐dimensional variational data assimilation (3D‐Var) and produced 36 h forecasts every 6 h. The NDP 4D‐Var included standard observations, Doppler radar radial winds, humidity derived from a 3D cloud cover analysis and geostationary satellite upper‐tropospheric water vapour radiances not contaminated by cloud. This was used in combination with latent heat nudging of radar‐derived precipitation rates. Example case‐studies compare the NDP precipitation forecasts to both the operational extrapolation/merged nowcast system and the UKV forecasts. Objective comparison of fraction skill score for the period June to August 2012 shows that the NDP skill was greater than the latest UKV forecasts, available to forecasters at the same time as the NDP, for the whole 6 h forecast period. The skill of the NDP was greater than the operational extrapolation/merged nowcast beyond T + 2 h.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…In the early days it was considered that extrapolation forecasts were of superior skill in the first 6 h (e.g. Browning, ). Pinto et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Performance of 4D‐Var NWP‐based nowcasting of precipitation at the Met Office for summer 2012

Ballard

Simonin

et al. 2015

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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“…The accuracy of these forecasts generally decreases very rapidly during the first 30 min because of the very short life time of individual convective storms. For forecasts periods beyond~20 min, techniques for forecasting the initiation, growth, and dissipation of convective storms are essential [Browning, 1980;Wilson and Mueller, 1993;Wilson et al, 1998;Hering et al, 2004]. Storm location and intensity are primarily determined by mesoscale stability, wind fields and in particular convergence lines.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nowcasting severe convective activity over southeast India using ground‐based microwave radiometer observations

et al. 2013

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[1] In the present study, the feasibility of nowcasting convective activity is examined by using thermodynamic indices derived from the ground-based microwave radiometer (MWR) observations located at a tropical station, Gadanki (13.5 N, 79.2 E). There is a good comparison between thermodynamic parameters derived from MWR and colocated GPS radiosonde observations, indicating that MWR observations can be used to develop techniques for nowcasting severe convective activity. Using MWR observations, a nowcasting technique was developed with the data of 26 thunderstorm cases observed at Gadanki. The analysis showed that there are sharp changes in some thermodynamic indices, such as the K index, the humidity index, precipitable water content, the stability index, and equivalent potential temperature lapse rates, about 2-4 h before the occurrence of thunderstorm. A superepoch analysis was made to examine the composite temporal variations of the thermodynamic indices associated with the occurrence of thunderstorms. The superepoch analysis revealed that 2-4 h prior to the storm occurrence, appreciable variations in many parameters are observed, suggesting thermodynamic evolution of the boundary layer convective instability. It is further demonstrated that by monitoring these variations it is possible to predict the ensuing thunderstorm activity over the region at least 2 h in advance. The association between the temporal evolution of thermodynamic indices and convective activity has been tested for the independent case of nine thunderstorms. The present results suggest that ground-based MWR observations can be used effectively to predict the occurrence of thunderstorms at least 2 h in advance.Citation: Madhulatha, A., M. Rajeevan, M. Venkat Ratnam, J. Bhate, and C. V. Naidu (2013), Nowcasting severe convective activity over southeast India using ground-based microwave radiometer observations,

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“…It is broadly accepted that the term nowcasting refers to the 0–6 h forecast range on a spatial scale of a few kilometres or less, with a rapid update – generally hourly or more frequently (Browning, ; Pierce et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of Met Office hourly cycling NWP‐based nowcasting for precipitation forecasts

Simonin

Pierce

Roberts

et al. 2017

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The Met Office developed a prototype high‐resolution, hourly‐cycling NWP forecasting system using four‐dimensional variational data assimilation, covering the southern half of England. This system was known as the Met Office Nowcasting Demonstration Project (NDP), and ran in real time from June 2012 to March 2013 (covering the period of the London 2012 Olympics and Paralympic Games). It was principally developed to assess the abilities of a frequently updated NWP‐based nowcasting system to forecast precipitation at short range such as convective storms for flood forecasting. This article provides a comprehensive assessment of the precipitation forecast skill of the NDP and its comparison against the Met Office operational nowcasting system. It was found that the NWP‐based nowcasting system becomes more skilful than an advanced extrapolation‐based nowcasting system from T + 1.5 to T + 2 h depending on weather type.

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Review Lecture: Local weather forecasting

Cited by 32 publications

References 22 publications

Performance of 4D‐Var NWP‐based nowcasting of precipitation at the Met Office for summer 2012

Performance of 4D‐Var NWP‐based nowcasting of precipitation at the Met Office for summer 2012

Nowcasting severe convective activity over southeast India using ground‐based microwave radiometer observations

Performance of Met Office hourly cycling NWP‐based nowcasting for precipitation forecasts

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