Review of Meteorological Drought in Africa: Historical Trends, Impacts, Mitigation Measures, and Prospects

Ayugi, Brian; Eresanya, Emmanuel Olaoluwa; Onyango, Augustine Omondi; Ogou, Faustin Katchele; Okoro, Eucharia Chidinma; Okoye, Charles Obinwanne; Anoruo, Chukwuma Moses; Dike, Victor Nnamdi; Ashiru, Olusola Raheemat; Daramola, Mojolaoluwa Toluwalase; Mumo, Richard; Ongoma, Victor

doi:10.1007/s00024-022-02988-z

Cited by 71 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 155 publications

(177 reference statements)

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“…Moreover, the frequency and intensity of severe precipitation events have shown an increasing trend after 1950s across the various regions worldwide due to many natural and human-caused factors. This irregular change in annual precipitation and occurrence of frequent heatwaves have led toward ecological drought events in various regions due to increased evapotranspiration ( Jiménez-Donaire et al, 2020 ; Ayugi et al, 2022 ). Decline in global monsoon precipitations has been observed between 1950s and 1980s which could partially be attributed to human-induced Northern Hemisphere aerosol emissions.…”

Section: General Background and Climate Change Statusmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncovering the Research Gaps to Alleviate the Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security: A Review

Uzair²,

et al. 2022

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Climatic variability has been acquiring an extensive consideration due to its widespread ability to impact food production and livelihoods. Climate change has the potential to intersperse global approaches in alleviating hunger and undernutrition. It is hypothesized that climate shifts bring substantial negative impacts on food production systems, thereby intimidating food security. Vast developments have been made addressing the global climate change, undernourishment, and hunger for the last few decades, partly due to the increase in food productivity through augmented agricultural managements. However, the growing population has increased the demand for food, putting pressure on food systems. Moreover, the potential climate change impacts are still unclear more obviously at the regional scales. Climate change is expected to boost food insecurity challenges in areas already vulnerable to climate change. Human-induced climate change is expected to impact food quality, quantity, and potentiality to dispense it equitably. Global capabilities to ascertain the food security and nutritional reasonableness facing expeditious shifts in biophysical conditions are likely to be the main factors determining the level of global disease incidence. It can be apprehended that all food security components (mainly food access and utilization) likely be under indirect effect via pledged impacts on ménage, incomes, and damages to health. The corroboration supports the dire need for huge focused investments in mitigation and adaptation measures to have sustainable, climate-smart, eco-friendly, and climate stress resilient food production systems. In this paper, we discussed the foremost pathways of how climate change impacts our food production systems as well as the social, and economic factors that in the mastery of unbiased food distribution. Likewise, we analyze the research gaps and biases about climate change and food security. Climate change is often responsible for food insecurity issues, not focusing on the fact that food production systems have magnified the climate change process. Provided the critical threats to food security, the focus needs to be shifted to an implementation oriented-agenda to potentially cope with current challenges. Therefore, this review seeks to have a more unprejudiced view and thus interpret the fusion association between climate change and food security by imperatively scrutinizing all factors.

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Section: General Background and Climate Change Statusmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncovering the Research Gaps to Alleviate the Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security: A Review

Uzair²,

et al. 2022

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“…The Mann-Kendall (MK) test is a nonparametric approach for testing the significance of monotonic trends, linear or nonlinear, in time series data. The method has been widely used to detect trends in hydrometeorological data [9,59]. MKtrend test is expressed by Equation (1):…”

Section: Climate Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Changes in Mean and Extreme Climate: Farmers’ Perception and Its Agricultural Implications in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Damtew

Teferi

Ongoma

et al. 2022

Climate

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The increase in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes threatens socioeconomic development. This study examines variability of mean and extreme climate, farmers’ perception of the changes, and impacts in the Awash River Basin. Daily rainfall and temperature data were used to analyze 23 extreme climate indices. The Mann–Kendall test was used to assess the magnitude and significance of the changes. Results show an increase in minimum (0.019–0.055 °C/year) and maximum temperatures (0.049–0.09 °C/year), while total rainfall is on a downward trend (from −3.84 mm/year to −10.26 mm/year). Warm extreme temperature indicators, including warmest day (TXx), warmest night (TNx), warm day (TX90p), warm night (TN90p), and warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), show a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05). Nevertheless, except the tepid–cool humid agroecology zone, cold extreme temperature indicators in cool days (TN10p), cool nights (TX10p), and cold spell duration (CSDI) are declining. Extreme precipitation indices, including maximum 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day), count of days when precipitation ≥10 mm (R10 mm), maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day), count of days when precipitation ≥20 mm (R20mm), very wet days (R95p), extreme wet days (R99p), and total precipitation (PRCPTOT), show a decreasing trend. The perception of most farmers’ on climate change and climate extremes agreed with climate records. The major impacts perceived and asserted over all agroecologies are food price inflation, crop productivity decline, crop pests and diseases spread, livestock disease increase, and the emergence of pests and weeds. The increasing trend in extreme warm temperatures, decreasing trend in the cold extreme, and declining trend in precipitation indicators affected agricultural productivity and farmers whose livelihood depends on rainfed agriculture. This agroecology-specific study provides critical information to policymakers, decision makers, and farmers about the potential impacts of climate change and extreme events, leading to the development of agroecology-based adaptation measures.

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“…Therefore, bias correction is herein introduced to obtain a reliable future projection of drought characteristics over the region. This information is needed for devising effective adaptation and mitigation strategies in the region that has remained a drought hotspot and vulnerable to its effects (Trisos et al 2022 ; Ayugi et al 2022 ). This study uses the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to build an accurate drought map for EA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models

et al. 2022

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The ongoing global warming has caused unprecedented changes in the climate system, leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of weather and climate extremes. This study uses the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data to investigate projected changes in drought events over East Africa (EA) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-4.0, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 data are bias-corrected using a quantile mapping method, with the Climatic Research Unit's precipitation dataset as reference. Drought is quantified using the standardized precipitation index and different measures of drought are estimated: drought duration, drought frequency, drought severity, and drought intensity. Evaluating the accuracy and reliability of historical data before and after bias correction demonstrates the importance of the approach. The overall distribution after bias correction depicts a close agreement with observation. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble mean demonstrate superiority over individual Global Circulation Models. Projected future changes show enhancement in precipitation over most parts of EA in the far future under different SSP scenarios. However, the arid and semi-arid regions are expected to receive less amount of precipitation, whereas the highlands and lake regions are expected to receive a larger amount of precipitation increase. Furthermore, the dry areas of EA are likely to experience more frequent drought events with longer duration, stronger intensity, and severity in the far future. Overall, this study identifies possible drought hotspots over EA, enabling early preparation for such events. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-022-05341-8.

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Review of Meteorological Drought in Africa: Historical Trends, Impacts, Mitigation Measures, and Prospects

Cited by 71 publications

References 155 publications

Uncovering the Research Gaps to Alleviate the Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security: A Review

Uncovering the Research Gaps to Alleviate the Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security: A Review

Spatiotemporal Changes in Mean and Extreme Climate: Farmers’ Perception and Its Agricultural Implications in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models

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