Revisiting the ‘southern mood’? Post-crisis Mediterranean urbanities between economic downturns and land-use change

Economic Downturns and Land-Use Change: A Spatial Analysis of Urban Transformations in Rome (Italy) Using a Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis

“…According to the theoretical framework proposed by Tomao et al [19], seven trajectories were identified, referring to (i) "brownfield development", i.e., residential densification, sprawl, and industrial development on urban land-uses, (ii) "greenfield development", i.e., industrial development or compact and dispersed expansion of residential settlements on natural land-uses, and (iii) "greening", i.e., transitions from an "urban" land-use (such as dump sites, construction areas, land without current use) to cropland or forests. In particular, the main land-use trajectories in the study area have been classified as follows: 1 = residential densification on brownfields; 2 = residential extensification on brownfields; 3 = industrial development on brownfields; 4 = compact expansion of residential settlements on greenfields; 5 = sprawled expansion of residential settlements on greenfields; 6 = industrial development on greenfields; 7 = greening (for further details see Tomao et al [19]). Five landscape/class metrics were calculated for each patch experiencing land-use change and each time interval: number of patches; mean patch size; class area in the landscape under transformation; perimeter-to-area (P/A) ratio; and mean distance from the center of Rome, i.e., "Piazza Barberini" (41 • 54 13 N, 12 • 29 19 E) [30,31].…”

“…The scientific debate about this issue has recently grown in Europe [12,13], where there have been discussions on how, despite their intrinsic diversity, cities' growth trajectories are increasingly associated with many socioeconomic and environmental factors, whose impact varies with economic downturns [5,[14][15][16]. In particular, urbanization dynamics changed drastically after the 2007 crisis in Mediterranean cities, shifting from an increase in urban sprawl to settlement densification close to the inner cities [17][18][19]. An example of these land-use change trajectories is reported by a recent study in the metropolitan area of Athens [19], where the authors suggest how the crisis may be considered as a chance to revisit urban expansion models, promoting sustainable and resilient urban areas [18,19].…”

“…In particular, urbanization dynamics changed drastically after the 2007 crisis in Mediterranean cities, shifting from an increase in urban sprawl to settlement densification close to the inner cities [17][18][19]. An example of these land-use change trajectories is reported by a recent study in the metropolitan area of Athens [19], where the authors suggest how the crisis may be considered as a chance to revisit urban expansion models, promoting sustainable and resilient urban areas [18,19].…”

“…In this context, the present study aims to assess if recent land-use change trajectories differed between expansion and recession periods (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018) in a typical Mediterranean metropolitan area (Rome, Italy). Previous research has used these time spans as exemplary periods to study land-use dynamics during economic expansion and recession [19]. Therefore, due to the delayed and long-lasting impacts of the 2007 recession on land-use change, the 2012-2018 period was considered indicative of the association between land-use dynamics and the economic crisis [19].…”

“…Previous research has used these time spans as exemplary periods to study land-use dynamics during economic expansion and recession [19]. Therefore, due to the delayed and long-lasting impacts of the 2007 recession on land-use change, the 2012-2018 period was considered indicative of the association between land-use dynamics and the economic crisis [19]. This work employed high-resolution Copernicus Land Urban Atlas images to detect land-use change patterns during expansion and recession, applying a landscape ecology approach combined with a multivariate spatial analysis (GW-PCA).…”