Revolutions and Democracy. Why Do Revolutions Take Armed or Unarmed Form?

Ustyuzhanin, Vadim; Korotayev, Andrey V.

doi:10.17223/1998863x/66/18

Cited by 2 publications

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“…In M4 and M5, we introduce the index of electoral democracy and the share of the discriminated population . The most surprising is that democracy itself is not a significant predictor (for a possible explanation of this result see Ustyuzhanin & Korotayev, 2022; Ustyuzhanin & Korotayev, 2023), while the share of the discriminated population is appreciably significant ( p < 0.1) and associated with a greater likelihood of violence in all subsequent models.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…Relatively long ago, Karl Popper said that he calls ‘the type of government that can be eliminated without violence “democracy”, and the other “tyranny”’ (Popper, 1949, p. 90). Modern researchers have similar findings: there is a greater likelihood of peaceful protest mobilization in democracies than in autocratic regimes (Caren et al, 2016; Chenoweth & Ulfelder, 2017; Dahl et al, 2021; Korotayev et al, 2016; Ustyuzhanin & Korotayev, 2022). This association is postulated to be because in a democracy: (1) it is easier for dissatisfied citizens to present their demands to the government or to mobilize in a democratic country, where the structure of institutions presupposes the inclusion of broad masses in governance (Nam, 2007); (2) a relatively higher level of freedoms and less power of the repressive apparatus leads to an increase in the likelihood of a nonviolent revolutionary protest (Massoud et al, 2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 85%

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Education and Revolutions: Why do Revolutionary Uprisings Take Violent or Nonviolent Forms?

Ustyuzhanin

Korotayev

2023

Cross-Cultural Research

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Is there a relationship between education and the type of revolutionary action – violent or nonviolent? Past studies found a positive relationship between the education and nonviolence, but the influence that education produces on the form that revolution takes has not yet been explored. We show several possible mechanisms that push the educated population to choose nonviolent tactic: (1) education changes people’s preferences toward peaceful solutions and increases support for civil liberties; (2) it enhances human capital that makes it feasible to use unarmed tactics successfully and (3) it increases the relative costs of engaging in armed action. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the higher education in a country, the higher the probability that revolution will be nonviolent. This paper examines it at a cross-national level with an analysis of 470 NAVCO ‘maximalist campaigns’ and 265 revolutionary events recorded between 1950 and 2020. Overall, we find robust evidence that the higher the level of education in a country, the lower chance that the revolution there would take a violent/armed form.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 85%

Education and Revolutions: Why do Revolutionary Uprisings Take Violent or Nonviolent Forms?

Ustyuzhanin

Korotayev

2023

Cross-Cultural Research

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The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part II: A Systematic Review of Substantive Findings (Revolution Causes, Forms, and Waves)

Korotayev,

Ustyuzhanin,

Grinin

et al. 2024

Critical Sociology

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The article is the first part of our systematic review of substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. This first part specifically considers the following areas of research explored by fifth-generation scholars: First, we examine the factors and causes of armed and unarmed revolutionary events. These include economic, political, socio-demographic, and other factors, the majority of which exert a differential effect on the probability of armed versus unarmed revolutionary destabilization. Second, we examine the factors that influence the decision of participants to adopt a violent or non-violent tactic in revolutionary action. This analysis considers the structural factors, which are dependent on external conditions, and the agent factors, which are dependent on the characteristics of revolutionary movements. Third, we analyze the emergence of concepts such as ‘coupvolutions’ and ‘analogues of revolutions’ within the context of the fifth generation of the theory of revolution. Finally, we examine the phenomenon of the spread of revolutionary events, which is also known as revolutionary waves or the ‘diffusion’ of revolutions, and the mechanisms that drive it.

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Revolutions and Democracy. Why Do Revolutions Take Armed or Unarmed Form?

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

Education and Revolutions: Why do Revolutionary Uprisings Take Violent or Nonviolent Forms?

Education and Revolutions: Why do Revolutionary Uprisings Take Violent or Nonviolent Forms?

The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part II: A Systematic Review of Substantive Findings (Revolution Causes, Forms, and Waves)

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