Rising China, pivotal middle power South Korea, and alliance transition theory

Abstract

The alliance transition theory is developed by incorporating the pivotal middle power’s role into Organski’s power transition theoretical framework. The theory posits that the situation of parity of alliance power between the dominant power’s alliance camp and the rising dissatisfied challenger’s camp is likely to lead to major war; and, further, that the pivotal middle power is able not only to help reinforce the dominant state’s power preponderance over its potential challenger but also to play a mediating role of persuading the rising potential challenger to be more satisfied with the status quo. Applying the alliance transition arguments to the East Asian region, the theory suggests that a pivotal middle power such as South Korea can be a crucial addition to the United States’ capabilities to maintain its preponderance of power over the potential challenger, the People’s Republic of China. Together with other like-minded middle powers, the Republic of Korea, as a key regional ally of the United States, can also play the constructive role of persuading China to be a responsible member of the status quo system, by engaging substantially with China.

US–China commercial rivalry, great war and middle powers

“…Earlier, Cooper et al (1993) pointed out that the tension between great powers could increase along with forming an alliance with the dissatisfied challenger, which is similar to the argument that the power parity between the two great powers including their allies' capabilities is likely to result in a war (Kim, 1991). Rather than taking sides and making the situation more divisive, hence, middle power countries are required to play a mediating role such that they induce the US and China to be at least less dissatisfied with the status quo (Kim, 2015). Given that the trade war is expected to be handled mostly within economic boundaries, in addition, we see that middle powers need to take some strategic approaches to trade matters, like having trade issues being discussed in multilateral economic structures (i.e.…”

“…To ride out the challenges and avoid aggravation of the situation, nevertheless, middle power countries need to focus on ways to prevent the tension from being escalated to a high-intensity level. As Kim (2015) points out, middle powers are in a position to either foster cooperation among major powers or exacerbate tensions between them. If the middle powers are countries (like India and South Korea) that support the status quo and have military, political and economic power in the region, in particular, their roles would be pivotal.…”

Role Conception of the Asia-Pacific Middle Powers: Comparative Analysis of Indonesia, South Korea, Australia and Vietnam

“…Since implementing significant economic reforms in 1978, China has risen to a position of a global power. As part of its new-found role, China has become more assertive in demonstrating its power and now represents a strategic challenge to the United States (US) and its Western allies (Kim, 2015b). At the time when major economic powers, such as the US, Europe, and Japan began to experience a decline due to the 2008 financial crisis, China instead succeeded in boosting its economy and positioning itself as the new world economic power (Hadi, 2012).…”

The Key Components of South Korea’s Soft Power: Challenges and Trends

“…Soft power allows middle powers not only to improve their international standing but also to monetize their "likability." Consequently, soft power boosts both political and economic capital [Kim 2015]. In this regard, South Korea presents an interesting case study as an example of successful national rebranding and as a major exporter of culture in the 2010s.…”