Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable

Hall, John A.; Weaver, C. P.; Obeysekera, Jayantha; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert; Marburger, John H.; Marcy, Doug; Parris, Adam; Sweet, William; Veatch, W.; White, Kathleen D.

doi:10.1080/08920753.2019.1551012

Cited by 37 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Twenty-eight studies and more than 90 projections (>30% of the total number of SLR projections in the database) have been published from 2013 to the present. This time period has also seen a proliferation of national and subnational sea level assessment documents (Hall et al, 2019). The range of 2100 SLR across these projections is 0.16 to 2.54 m, which is both broader and higher compared to projections made between TAR and AR5 (Figures 2, S3, and 3).…”

Section: 1029/2018ef000991mentioning

confidence: 94%

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Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections

et al. 2018

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The modern era of scientific global-mean sea level rise (SLR) projections began in the early 1980s. In subsequent decades, understanding of driving processes has improved, and new methodologies have been developed. Nonetheless, despite more than 70 studies, future SLR remains deeply uncertain. To facilitate understanding of the historical development of SLR projections and contextualize current projections, we have compiled a comprehensive database of 21st century global SLR projections. Although central estimates of 21st century global-mean SLR have been relatively consistent, the range of projected SLR has varied greatly over time. Among studies providing multiple estimates, the range of upper projections shrank from 1.3-1.8 m during the 1980s to 0.6-0.9 m in 2007, before expanding again to 0.5-2.5 m since 2013. Upper projections of SLR from individual studies are generally higher than upper projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, potentially due to differing percentile bounds or a predisposition of consensus-based approaches toward relatively conservative outcomes.Plain Language Summary In spite of more than 35 years of research, and over 70 individual studies, the upper bound of future global-mean sea level rise (SLR) remains deeply uncertain. In an effort to improve understanding of the history of the science behind projected SLR, we present and analyze the first comprehensive database of 21st century global-mean SLR projections. Results show a reduction in the range of SLR projections from the first studies through the mid-2000s that has since reversed. In addition, results from this work indicate a tendency for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports to err on the side of least drama-a conservative bias that could potentially impede risk management.

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Section: 1029/2018ef000991mentioning

confidence: 94%

“…This time period has also seen a proliferation of national and subnational sea level assessment documents (Hall et al, 2019). This time period has also seen a proliferation of national and subnational sea level assessment documents (Hall et al, 2019).…”

Section: 1029/2018ef000991mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections

et al. 2018

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“…In other countries, such as the USA, sea level rise scenarios may differ amongst entities. For example, in the USA, the US Department of Defense (Hall et al 2016), the US National Climate Assessment process (Sweet et al 2017) and different states may employ different projections (see Hall et al 2019, for a review). Furthermore, sea level rise scenarios can eventually be included in the regulation or design guidance, as in California, New York City or France (Rosenzweig et al 2011;Le Cozannet et al 2017b).…”

Section: Current Uses Of Sea Level Projections and Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Sea Level Projections at the Coast by 2100

et al. 2019

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As sea level is rising along many low-lying and densely populated coastal areas, affected communities are investing resources to assess and manage future socio-economic and ecological risks created by current and future sea level rise. Despite significant progress in the scientific understanding of the physical mechanisms contributing to sea level change, projections beyond 2050 remain highly uncertain. Here, we present recent developments in the probabilistic projections of coastal mean sea level rise by 2100, which provides a summary assessment of the relevant uncertainties. Probabilistic projections can be used directly in some of the decision frameworks adopted by coastal engineers for infrastructure design and land use planning. However, relying on a single probability distribution or a set of distributions based upon a common set of assumptions can understate true uncertainty and potentially misinform users. Here, we put the probabilistic projections published over the last 5 years into context.

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“…As the meaning of high-end scenarios depend on the risk aversion of stakeholders, an ongoing dialog between stakeholders and the scientific community is critical to define the needs and develop together appropriate solutions that are scientifically rigorous: that is, coproduction is critical (Hall et al, 2019;Vogel et al, 2016). However, a solid conceptual framework that links sea level science with stakeholder needs and which is an essential step to provide guidance for stakeholders is lacking.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, a solid conceptual framework that links sea level science with stakeholder needs and which is an essential step to provide guidance for stakeholders is lacking. As the meaning of high-end scenarios depend on the risk aversion of stakeholders, an ongoing dialog between stakeholders and the scientific community is critical to define the needs and develop together appropriate solutions that are scientifically rigorous: that is, coproduction is critical (Hall et al, 2019;Vogel et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Framework for High‐End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications

et al. 2019

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An approach to analyze high-end sea level rise is presented to provide a conceptual framework for high-end estimates as a function of time scale, thereby linking robust sea level science with stakeholder needs. Instead of developing and agreeing on a set of high-end sea level rise numbers or using an expert consultation, our effort is focused on the essential task of providing a generic conceptual framework for such discussions and demonstrating its feasibility to address this problem. In contrast, information about high-end sea level rise projections was derived previously either from a likely range emerging from the highest view of emissions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment (currently the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) or from independent ad hoc studies and expert solicitations. Ideally, users need high-end sea level information representing the upper tail of a single joint sea level frequency distribution, which considers all plausible yet unknown emission scenarios as well as involved physical mechanisms and natural variability of sea level, but this is not possible. In the absence of such information we propose a framework that would infer the required information from explicit conditional statements (lines of evidence) in combination with upper (plausible) physical bounds. This approach acknowledges the growing uncertainty in respective estimates with increasing time scale. It also allows consideration of the various levels of risk aversion of the diverse stakeholders who make coastal policy and adaptation decisions, while maintaining scientific rigor.

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Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable

Abstract: This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article. Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Cited by 37 publications

References 52 publications

Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections

Evolution of 21st Century Sea Level Rise Projections

Probabilistic Sea Level Projections at the Coast by 2100

Framework for High‐End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications

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