Risk Analysis for Mega Shopping Mall Projects in Egypt

Abstract

Mega shopping mall projects have seen dramatic growth and great development in recent years in Egypt. Many new mega shopping mall projects are under construction and expecting to start working in the few coming years. In the absence of researches studying the Egyptian mega shopping mall projects, this study tries to highlight the most critical risks that face these projects and the associated most effective response methods to be employed. The scope covers the analysis from different perspectives by including owners/developers, designers, consultants, project managers, and contractors that have previous experience in large-scale projects such as shopping mall projects. In this study, 30 construction project risks are classified into six main categories according to their type and 150 risk mitigation/elimination measures are introduced to overcome the impact of risks under each of these risk categories. The results reveal that the main risk category that faces the mega shopping mall projects in Egypt is the one including the financial risk factors. The most critical risk factor that faces these projects is the financial ability of the client. These results are similar to findings by previous researches conducted for large projects in other countries.

Determining and assessing the risks of commercial and recreational complex building projects in developing countries: a survey of experts in Iran

“…The type of data collection tool is subject to various factors including the nature and method of the research. Questionnaire was selected as the data collection tool in this research, similar to other studies (Chan et al , 2014; Ezeldin and Ibrahim, 2015; Sarvari et al , 2019a). The questionnaire was designed based on the initial RBS, which is mainly based on past research and library studies, and it was used to identify and document the risks of CRCBPs – using the Delphi technique as one of the most common methods of risk identification (Rostami, 2016; Sarvari et al , 2019b; Siraj and Fayek, 2019).…”

“…In particular, these scholars identified risks and prioritized them based on a sensitivity analysis and a hybrid modelbased on the Analytic Network Process (ANP) method (i.e., a model that structures decisionmaking processes as a network)that addressed the shortcomings of previous methods. In another study, Ezeldin and Ibrahim (2015) conducted risk analysis of a large CRCBP through a questionnaire distributed in Egypt and identified 30 risks, which were classified into six main categories. As a result, they found that the lack of financing, changes in design, incomplete specifications, and the lack of owner liquidity were the most important risks.…”

Identification and Prioritization of Critical Risk Factors of Commercial and Recreational Complex Building Projects: A Delphi Study Using the TOPSIS Method

“…The risk identification step aimed to record the details of the uncertainties before the occurrence of risks. In the present study, after identifying the various risks of CRCBPs based on the study of research literature (e.g., [5,16,24,31,64,70,76]), the relevance of the identified risks was evaluated and monitored. Finally, based on three rounds of the Delphi technique, 82 risks of CRCBPs were identified and recorded; see Tables 3 and 4, respectively, for internal and external risks.…”

“…Table 1 shows the demographic data of the experts participating in the Delphi process. In this study, 53 construction risks-classified into 14 categories-of CRCBPs were identified based on a detailed and comprehensive literature review (e.g., [5,16,24,31,64]). Table 2 outlines the risks affecting the objectives of CRCBPs and categorizes them into internal and external risks as well as grouping them into 14 clusters at the second level (i.e., social, economic, political, legal, natural, technical, work force, investment, management, safety, design, contract, market and environmental) and 53 risks at the third level.…”

“…Mismatching physical progress with the comprehensive project schedule R 61 Delay in project duration due to lack of parallel work R 62 Delay in completion of the project R 63 Increase in exploitation costs R 64 Increase in maintenance cost R 65 Inappropriate pricing of saleable spaces R 66 Lack of proper internal zoning of spaces in the business centre…”