Risk and uncertainty analysis for dam overtopping – Case study: The Doroudzan Dam, Iran

Goodarzi, Ehsan; Shui, Lee Teang; Ziaei, Mina

doi:10.1016/j.jher.2013.02.001

Cited by 19 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Combined with an engineering example, Liao [38] analyzed the influence between dam risk factors based on the mechanism of earth-rock dam break and combined with the bayesian network method to discern the risk factors of earth-rock dam. Goodarzi et al [39] identified the uncertain factors of the dam and calculated the risk of overtopping. Zhang et al [40] improved the shortcomings of the traditional potential failure mode and consequence analysis method, and ranked the failure risk of earth-rock dam based on the theory of confidence structure and grey relativity.…”

Section: Dam Failure Path Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using the DEMATEL-VIKOR Method in Dam Failure Path Identification

Zhu

Niu

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Dams are important water-resisting structures prone to failure, causing huge economic and environmental losses. Traditionally, a dam failure is identified using the failure mode and effect analysis. This approach analyzes both the dam failure path (the specific effect chain of the failure mode) and the damage degree, by identifying and sorting the severity caused by the dam failure path. However, this analysis can be misleading since the relationship among the failure paths is not considered. To account for this, the DEMATEL method is used to modify the evaluation result of the severity of the failure consequence, caused by the dam failure path. Based on the fuzzy mathematics and VIKOR method, a dam failure path identification method is established, and then the dam failure paths are identified and sorted for a case study: gravity dam located at the junction of Yibin County (China). According to results, the two top initial failure paths were insufficient design of upstream anti-seepage (R6) or defective water-tight screen and corrosion (R7).

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Section: Dam Failure Path Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using the DEMATEL-VIKOR Method in Dam Failure Path Identification

Zhu

Niu

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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“…Classical mathematical and statistical approaches have been also widely applied for lake water level forecasting (Goodarzi et al, 2014). A lot of research in relation to this topic has been performed in the Great Lakes region.…”

Section: Forecasting Storage Volumesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Alvisi and Franchini, 2011) for water level forecasting in combination with ANN or the Monte Carlo method (e.g. Hassan et al, 2009, Goodarzi et al, 2014. Monte Carlo simulation (Metropolos and Ulam, 1949) is a technique that can be deployed to generate values for uncertain variables in mathematical models and it can be used to combine stochastic data and stochastic models; it can be effectively used to quantify and analyse data uncertainties (Wu et al, 2014).…”

Section: Dealing With Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Medium-term storage volume prediction for optimum reservoir management: A hybrid data-driven approach

Bertone

Halloran

Stewart

et al. 2017

Journal of Cleaner Production

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A hybrid regressive and probabilistic model was developed that is able to forecast, six weeks ahead, the storage volume of Little Nerang dam. This is a small elevated Australian drinking water reservoir, gravity-fed to a nearby water treatment plant while a lower second main water supply source (Hinze dam) requires considerable pumping. The model applies a Monte Carlo approach combined with nonlinear threshold autoregressive models using the seasonal streamflow forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology as input and it was validated over different historical conditions. Treatment operators can use the model for quantifying depletion rates and spill likelihood for the forthcoming six weeks, based on the seasonal climatic conditions and different intake scenarios. Greater utilization of the Little Nerang reservoir source means a reduced supply requirement from the Hinze dam source that needs considerable energy costs for pumping, leading to a lower cost water supply solution for the region.

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“…Foram gerados 10000 hidrogramas para cada tempo de retorno. Este número está em conformidade com o realizado em trabalhos similares a este (GOODARZI et al, 2013;BAPTISTA, 2008).…”

Section: Hidrogramas Afluentes Ao Reservatóriounclassified

“…A função desempenho tem por objetivo definir o estado do sistema, ou seja, se Z(x) >0 a estrutura em questão se encontra em uma região de segurança, caso contrário o sistema está em uma região de falha, ou ainda se Z(x) for igual a 0, encontra-se em seu estado limite. As principais funções desempenho utilizadas na engenharia hidráulica e de recursos hídricossão as seguintes (GOODARZI et al, 2013):…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Avaliação da probabilidade de galgamento da barragem da PCH de Cajuru por simulação de Monte Carlo

Lima

Naghettini

Espósito

2015

RBRH

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A definição do risco associado à eventual ruptura de uma barragem constitui um problema corrente na engenharia. As barragens têm um papel importante na sociedade e o colapso de tais estruturas traz consigo desastres de grandes dimensões. A presente pesquisa procurou sistematizar uma técnica de simulação numérica de análise de risco,conhecida como Simulação de Monte Carlo, para avaliar a probabilidade de galgamento de uma barragem, causado por eventos de naturezas hidráulicas e hidrológicas, e aplicá-la em estudo de caso. A simulação foi utilizada com o intuito de avaliar a probabilidade de galgamento da barragem da PCH Cajuru, situada em Minas Gerais, em decorrência de uma cheia de determinado tempo de retorno, considerando as incertezas presentes na análise local de frequência de vazões máximas anuais. O método de Monte Carlo, ao ter em conta as incertezas das estimativas de eventos de dado tempo de retorno, demonstrou ser de muita utilidade na avaliação completa da probabilidade de galgamento. No caso em estudo, a simulação mostrou que a barragem de Cajuru apresenta grau não desprezível de vulnerabilidade a eventos de grandes magnitudes. Além das cheias, também foram analisadas as incidências do vento sobre o paramento de montante da barragem, provocando ondas e consequentes reduções da borda livre existente, entre o NA máximo-maximorum e a crista do referido barramento.

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Risk and uncertainty analysis for dam overtopping – Case study: The Doroudzan Dam, Iran

Cited by 19 publications

References 8 publications

Using the DEMATEL-VIKOR Method in Dam Failure Path Identification

Using the DEMATEL-VIKOR Method in Dam Failure Path Identification

Medium-term storage volume prediction for optimum reservoir management: A hybrid data-driven approach

Avaliação da probabilidade de galgamento da barragem da PCH de Cajuru por simulação de Monte Carlo

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