Risk assessment of renewable energies: Global exposure

Abstract

The current stage of renewable energy (RE) development poses new challenges to this sector. The existing mechanisms of state stimulation of Renewable energy system are gradually exhausting its capacity. This requires the development of new methods to support the industry, or giving them up altogether. This article presents the results of the theoretical analysis of the systemic features of RE risk assessment at each stage of a project's life cycle. A sectoral approach to the risk assessment of energy projects is proposed. It is based on the well-known logit-model that studies a set of external and internal indicators. Based on this model, a study of the dynamics of the risk indicators of RE projects on three basic stages was conducted. Calculations were made for RE projects implemented in different countries of the world, including China, USA, Canada, Japan, India and a number of European countries. Initially, all projects were divided into three main groups depending on the types of state support: concessional lending, subsidies or the lack thereof. Based on the results of the calculations, the overall and average dynamics of risk by group and by project stage allowed for assessing the global effectiveness of state measures to support the sector, as well as for drawing appropriate conclusions in the context of individual countries. The results of the study are of practical importance and will be used in developing a new approach to risk assessment, taking into account the specifics of the RE market, as well as in enhancing the concept of competition in the global energy market.

The Impact of Political Risk on the Economic Efficiency of Russian Renewable Energy Projects

“…Risks caused by political factors have a huge impact on the effectiveness of renewable energy (RE) projects and their value in particular. According to references [1][2][3][4][5][6][7], political risk in RE projects usually includes the following:…”

Strategic intelligence of an organization amid uncertainty

“…Given the context of rapid scientific and technical progress with the assumed transition to technological singularity, only those market participants who will be able to identify the upcoming changes sooner than their competitors, and to define the future shape of their industry and organization, can secure sustainable development [1][2][3][4][5]. Uncertainty accompanying the vision of the future forms the probabilistic nature of the intended trajectory of development and various risk constraints [6][7]. At the same time, ensuring preparedness for anticipatory response to the necessary changes and implementing them before the competitors does become not just the most important advantage but the essential condition for the survival of an organization or a company [8][9][10].…”

“…(5) corporate performance management, e.g. enterprise resource planning (ERP) and customer relationship management (CRM); (6) benchmarking; (7) text mining; (8) predictive and descriptive analytics; (9) scenario generation; and (10) data business design into convenient, interactive images.…”

Development of Leading Approaches for Risk Assessment of the Renewable Energy: Some Recommendations

“…Nevertheless, renewable energy is fraught with numerous specific risks (Bloomberg 2016;Panepinto et al 2017;Strielkowski 2017;Chebotareva 2017;Newbery et al 2018;Gonzalez et al 2018;Chebotareva 2019;Brozyna et al 2020;or Carvalho et al 2020), including:…”

“…Earlier studies (Ratner et. al 2020;Ermolenko et al 2016;Chebotareva 2019;Shimbar and Ebrahimi 2020) quantified the impact of state support mechanisms on the cost and riskiness of RE projects. Thus, in the global renewable energy market there is an increase in the risk closer to the end of projects: the risk hits the highest in the case of subsidies and is at the lowest when there is no state support.…”