Risk assessment tools in criminal justice and forensic psychiatry: The need for better data

Abstract

Violence risk assessment tools are increasingly used within criminal justice and forensic psychiatry, however there is little relevant, reliable and unbiased data regarding their predictive accuracy. We argue that such data are needed to (i) prevent excessive reliance on risk assessment scores, (ii) allow matching of different risk assessment tools to different contexts of application, (iii) protect against problematic forms of discrimination and stigmatisation, and (iv) ensure that contentious demographic variables are not prematurely removed from risk assessment tools.

Some Ethical Considerations About the Use of Biomarkers for the Classification of Adult Antisocial Individuals

“…In general, assessing whether the application of bioprediction in many legal and social practices is premature involves addressing several issues. Firstly, there are relevant legal debates aimed at establishing when scientific predictive information, not necessarily of a biological kind, can be usefully used for initial sentencing, parole or rehabilitation monitoring (Douglas, Pugh, Singh, Savulescu, & Fazel, 2017;H€ ubner & White, 2016;Pugh & Douglas, 2016). Secondly, the ethical justification of application of bioprediction in particular might tolerate different reliability thresholds depending on the specific context and the balance of values at hand.…”

“…Secondly, the ethical justification of application of bioprediction in particular might tolerate different reliability thresholds depending on the specific context and the balance of values at hand. Generally, the conflicting values tend to oppose the interests of an individual patient or offender and the interests of the wider public (Douglas et al, 2017). Depending on the context we might give more weight to one value over the other and accordingly tolerate prediction tools with specific features.…”

“…On the other hand, when deciding on a parole release, even if we mistakenly predict that an individual will continue to be violent still the incarceration time would be within the limits of the original sentence. Thus, in the parole case, we might prefer tools and data that minimize the rate of false negatives because we might give more precedence to securing the public safety (Douglas et al, 2017).…”

Granting Leave to Patients in Bavarian Forensic-Psychiatric Hospitals: A Survey to Describe the Current Process and Develop Guidelines

“…However, research on how granted leave decisions are made and implemented is limited. While considerable research attention has been directed towards violence and recidivism prediction after discharge (18)(19)(20)(21)(22), little attention has been paid to the prediction of in-hospital violence (23) or absconding of forensic-psychiatric patients (24,25). Moreover, studies on granted leave decisions have looked primarily on particular aspects such as clinical decision-making, clinicians' subjective perspectives, or novel interactions (14,26,27).…”

Prevention of Dangerous Acts of Persons with Mental Disorders: Organization, Statistics, Trends

“…В этой связи представляют интерес и практическую значимость стандартизованные инструменты оценки риска опасного поведения лиц с психическими расстройствами, которые широко используются за рубежом в клинической и судебно-психиатрической, а также в уголовной практике [7][8][9]. И хотя они предназначаются для оценки вероятности преимущественно насильственного поведения, а понимание опасности лиц с психическими расстройствами в отечественном уголовном праве и судебной психиатрии шире и включает в себя риск совершения любого деяния, содержащего признаки преступления, предусмотренного в Особенной части УК РФ, изучение зарубежного опыта важно для разработки соответствующих отечественных методик [10].…”