Risk‐Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications

Dillon, Robin L.; Liebe, Robert M.; Bestafka, Thomas

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01196.x

Cited by 60 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…In the same way, interesting analyzes may arise when studying the variations of the probability distributions associated to the attacker's successes and failures, when evaluated by the attacker, according to the point of view of the defense. Interesting analyzes of rewards values attributed to terrorist attacks are available in Keeney (2007), Dillon et al (2009), Keeney & Winterfeldt (2011). If the information obtained from defense specialists was more accurate, it would be natural for the analyzes to contemplate a lower level of uncertainty and therefore to be more reliable.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this, a conceptual framework for risk ( ) R computation is suggested as a function of an existing threat ( ) A , a vulnerability ( ) V presented by a target and a consequence ( ) C for an attack suffered, i.e., ( ) Dillon et al, 2009). Some interesting cases where PRA has been applied are presented by Willis et al (2005), that compare the results obtained when considering the use of the function above with the results derived from the calculation of the risk considering simple indicators (for example, population of a region and the weighted population density of a region).…”

Section: Probabilistic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Análise de Risco Adversário para alocação de recursos de contraterrorismo

et al. 2017

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Resumo: Análise de risco de terrorismo é um dos maiores desafios enfrentados pelas autoridades que definem Abstract:Terrorism risk assessment is one of the biggest challenges that authorities must face to define the defensive resource allocation policy for a country. This article provides a brief review of two approaches that have been traditionally used for this purpose: Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Game Theory. Additionally, it introduces the Adversary Risk Analysis approach to the Brazilian context; an innovative methodology that aims to assess risks caused by intelligent opponents. Finally, an application of Adversarial Risk Analysis in a hypothetical situation is presented. The results show that Adversarial Risk Analysis can be useful to support decisions about defensive resource allocation in contexts such as sports mega events, a reality for many countries around the world.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Probabilistic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Análise de Risco Adversário para alocação de recursos de contraterrorismo

et al. 2017

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“…Key differences between both risk types are summarized in Table 1. When applying classic risk analysis approaches to adversarial risks, risks may be underestimated in a systematic way [16,17]. The problem is that there are no reliable probabilities available for risks arising from intelligent and rational acting adversaries because they are capable and willing to adapt their attack strategies in response to defensive measures [18].…”

Section: Risk and Classic Risk Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A game-theoretic approach to assess adversarial risks

Meng¹,

Wiens²,

Schultmann³

2014

WIT Transactions on Information and Communication Technologies

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In our complex world today almost all critical infrastructures are interdependent and thus vulnerable to many different external and internal risks. To protect them against the greatest risks, a well-functioning risk management process is required to develop appropriate safety and security strategies. There are many wellestablished risk analysis methods existing. They predominantly apply empirical models and statistical data to quantify the risks. Within the realms of natural or aleatory risks this approach is considered suitable and functional. However, it could be a fatal flaw to apply such conventional, history-orientated models in order to assess risks that arise from intelligent adversaries such as terrorists, criminals or competitors. Approaches of classic risk analysis generally describe adversaries' choices as random variables, thus excluding the adversaries' behaviour and ability to adapt to security strategies. One possibility for considering human behaviour when analysing risks is the recourse to game theory. Game theory is the paradigmatic framework for strategic decision-making when two or more rational decision-makers (intelligent adversaries) are involved in cooperative or conflictive decision situations. In our study we propose an approach for combining a classic risk analysis method with a game-theoretic approach. Using a defenderoffender game as a basis, we simulate, exemplary for a terrorist attack against public transport, the behaviour and reactions (to applied security strategies of the defender) of a rational player acting as an adversary. Although risk analysis and game theory are very different methodologies, we show that linking them can significantly improve the quality of forecasts and risk assessments. If the behaviour and reactions of intelligent adversaries need to be considered, our approach contributes to enhance security through improving the allocation of scarce financial resources.

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“…Therefore, the accident consequences is obtained through calculating the energy generated from different hazardous materials explosions with TNT equivalent model and then the number of casualties is obtained.The expression is as follows [10] :…”

Section: Model Formulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-objective optimization model and algorithm for hazardous materials transportation network under terrorist attack

Xiong¹,

Ma²

2017

Proceedings of the 2017 2nd International Conference on Civil, Transportation and Environmental Engineering (ICCTE 2017)

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Abstract. In order to reduce the risk of hazardous materials transportation under the background of terrorist attacks,a method based on genetic algorithm is proposed.Firstly,a hazardous materials transportation route optimization model is designed with objective function of minimizing transportation risks and minimizing transportation costs.Secondly, an improved multi-objective genetic algorithm with node priority encoding method is adopted to solve the model.In addition,roulette selection operation,crossover operation based on a priority index,single-bit neighbour exchange variation method are used during genetic manipulation.Finally, liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation is chosen as an empirical research example.The results show that hazardous materials transportation routes with low transportation risks and costs can be quickly obtained through using the optimization model and algorithm,which are proposed under the background of the terrorist attacks in this paper.

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Risk‐Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications

Cited by 60 publications

References 15 publications

Análise de Risco Adversário para alocação de recursos de contraterrorismo

Análise de Risco Adversário para alocação de recursos de contraterrorismo

A game-theoretic approach to assess adversarial risks

Multi-objective optimization model and algorithm for hazardous materials transportation network under terrorist attack

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